Sunday, October 22, 2006
World Series Probabilities After Game 2
Posted by Jeff SackmannNow that the World Series is heading back to St. Louis knotted at one apiece, the Tigers still have an edge--but just barely. Adjusting for league, Detroit has a 59% chance of taking the title; without the adjustment, it's just over 52%. Despite that, the Cardinals have a better shot of winning the series in five games than do the Tigers. Not only do they have home-field advantage for the next three games, but Games 3 and 4 are the games that I pegged as the most likely for them to win.
Here's the complete list of possible outcomes:
DET STL NoAdj LgAdj WIN LOSE 52.6% 59.1% LOSE WIN 47.4% 40.9% 4 1 8.8% 11.0% 4 2 22.8% 26.0% 4 3 21.0% 22.1% 3 4 17.8% 16.2% 2 4 13.3% 11.2% 1 4 16.3% 13.5%
Jeff Sackmann is the creator of MinorLeagueSplits.com. With Kent Bonham, he founded CollegeSplits.com. Jeff and Kent blog about college baseball and the draft, and you can follow them on Twitter for bite-sized snacks of minor league and college stats. Jeff also has an email address.