January 9, 2009
Now shipping The 2009 Hardball Times Annual is now available. You can read about it here, but just make sure you order it directly from ACTA today. 
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Thursday, September 30, 2004Giants/Padres postmortemPosted by Dave StudemanThe Padres beat the Giants 4-3 in ten innings last night, hurting the Giants' chances for the wildcard. A lot of the coverage has focused on the game-ending play, in which Dustan Mohr made a questionable judgement call catching a foul fly ball (and subsequently hurting his knee). But that wasn't the key play of the inning. Here's a quick play-by-play of the last inning, including the change in the Padres' chances of winning: - As the inning begins, Padres have a 63% chance of winning. Home teams always have an advantage in extra-inning games. - Ramon Hernandez safe at first on Alfonso's throwing error. Padres's chances increase to 72%. 9% impact. - Torrealba makes a throwing error on Kerry Robinson's bunt, Robinson goes to second, pinch-runner Freddy Guzman to third. Padres chances increase to 93%. 21% impact. This is the key play of the inning. - Jay Payton grounds out, runner out at home (nice play by Torrealba to catch the ball at home). Chances decrease to 84%. 9% impact. - Flyout to Mohr, Padres win. 16% impact. Giant fans should particularly bemoan the error by Torrealba, who is really a fine defensive catcher. This is similar to last year's Bartman game in Chicago, in which Cub fans were upset with Steve Bartman, a fan who interfered with a foul ball, when they really should have been upset with Alex Gonzalez's key error that same inning. Wildcard RacePosted by Dave StudemanHouston has jumped into the lead in the NL wildcard race, and Angels now have sole possesion of first place in the AL West. In addition to updating the division race graphs daily, we've added a National League wildcard graph on the Team page, which illustrates the great comeback that Houston has made. Wednesday, September 29, 2004Mets Hire MinayaPosted by Dave StudemanThe Mets are supposed to announce today or tomorrow that they have hired Omar Minaya to be head of baseball operations, with Jim Duquette moving to more of an administrative role. Minaya worked for the Mets for several years before taking the front office job with the Expos. Minaya is a good baseball man. But so is Duquette. The key question is whether any baseball man under the Wilpon regime will really be given the authority to run baseball operations and make the baseball decisions. Perhaps the Wilpons will have enough trust in Minaya to give him that control, because they apparently didn't have that trust in Duquette. The other big off-field news is the impending move (finally!) of the Expos to Washington D.C. Peter Angelos has been fighting this move tooth and nail, and I can't say I really blame him. The value of the Oriole franchise will definitely take a hit. It looks like MLB will pay to assuage the Oriole owner. You can follow this story, and other business-related baseball news, at the Field of Schemes weblog. Pennant Races GalorePosted by Dave StudemanAt the beginning of the month, I wasn't sure there would be much drama in the pennant races. Boy, was I wrong. The Angels are now tied for first with the A's, and the NL wildcard race is going down to the wire, with the Cubs, Giants and Astros pretty much on top of each other in the standings. The Dodgers apparently put away the NL West race last night, with an improbable 5-4 win over the Rockies. How improbable? They were down 4-0 at the beginning of the last half-inning; the probability of winning in that situation is less than 2%. Coupled with last Saturday's Cubs loss to the Mets, we're seeing some really wild comebacks in this last week. Saturday, September 25, 2004All Stats UpdatedPosted by Dave StudemanAll stats and graphs are now current through games of September 23rd. In the American League, Johan Santana is now tied with Gary Sheffield for most Win Shares Above Average, and he's making a legitimate claim for the MVP title. In the National, Barry Bonds now has 51 Win Shares -- only the tenth time that a player has reached at least 50 in a season since 1900. Bonds has a chance to beat his previous best Win Shares total of 54, which he set in 2001. Bonds also now has 662 career Win Shares, passing Honus Wagner for third on the all-time list, behind only Babe Ruth (756) and Ty Cobb (722). Thursday, September 23, 2004Crazy Magic NumbersPosted by Dave StudemanIf the Cubs win 9 of their last 11 games, they're the wildcard winner, no matter what their rivals do. If the Giants win 8 of their remaining games, they're in the playoffs. Same with the Dodgers. And yet, there will be only one wildcard winner. Confused? I was too, until the Cub Reporter explained it all. Very interesting. Monday, September 20, 2004Angels Hanging ToughPosted by Dave StudemanThe latest team spotlight heads West, where the Anaheim Angels continue to compete for the AL West division race. Also, I forgot to mention that all of our stats were updated over the weekend. Hopefully, you figured that out for yourself. Wednesday, September 15, 2004Cubbies in the LightPosted by Dave StudemanToday's Team Spotlight, is on the Cubs. Can Dusty's boys make the playoffs? Well, we don't really know, but check it out anyway. Friday, September 10, 2004Updated Stats Now AvailablePosted by Dave StudemanAll stats and graphs (including Win Shares) have been updated through Thursday's games. Here's a list of the top run creators in each league, including all batters with 95 or more Runs Created: First, the National: Player Team RC Bonds B. SFG 157 Pujols A. STL 133 Rolen S. STL 124 Abreu B. PHI 119 Edmonds J. STL 112 Drew J. ATL 111 Berkman L. HOU 110 Beltre A. LAD 109 Loretta M. SDP 108 Casey S. CIN 102 Helton T. COL 102 Dunn A. CIN 101 Alou M. CHC 96 Thome J. PHI 95 Lee D. CHC 95And the American: Player Team RC Suzuki I. SEA 121 Sheffield G.NYY 115 Ramirez M. BOS 114 Ortiz D. BOS 110 Tejada M. BAL 104 Matsui H. NYY 104 Guerrero V. ANA 103 Guillen C. DET 102 Blalock H. TEX 101 Lee C. CHW 97 Guillen J. ANA 97 Young M. TEX 97 Mora M. BAL 96 Hafner T. CLE 96 Rodriguez A.NYY 95 Damon J. BOS 95 Durazo E. OAK 95As a reminder, our Runs Created formula includes each batter's clutch hitting stats. Thursday, September 09, 2004The Astros have won 12 straightPosted by Dave StudemanThe Houston Astros have won twelve straight games, and they now have a slight lead in the wildcard race. This is an amazing streak for a team that seemed out of it a month ago. Our Team Spotlight takes a closer look. FYI, here's a list of all teams, ranked by the number of games they have won since August 1st: BOS 28 STL 26 ATL 23 HOU 23 ANA 22 OAK 22 FLO 20 MIN 20 NYY 20 SFG 20 LAD 19 MON 18 BAL 18 TEX 18 CHC 17 CHW 17 PHI 17 CLE 16 SDP 16 PIT 14 COL 13 DET 13 TOR 13 CIN 12 KC 12 SEA 12 NYM 11 ARI 9 MIL 9 TBD 9 Tuesday, September 07, 2004Ichiro’s Other QuestPosted by Dave StudemanJeff Angus, proprietor of the Management by Baseball blog, sent an e-mail reminding me of Ichiro's other quest. Here's Jeff's e-mail in full: Don't overlook the singles-in-a-season all-time best, a definite possibility. Suzuki as of close of biz yesterday had 191. Current leader is Willie Keeler from 1898 (152 games for most of any team that year) with 206. 20th century leader was Lloyd "Worst ever HoFer" Waner in 1927 with 198 (in 154 game season). Monday, September 06, 2004The MLB Salary EstimatorPosted by Dave StudemanJC, over at the Sabernomics blog, has developed a great tool called the MLB Salary Estimator. If you have the BA, OBP, SLG and primary position of a player, along with his debut year, it will calculate his "market value" for you. This is wild stuff, which I also explored earlier this year using Win Shares, and I'm sure JC will continue to develop work in this area. For instance, he hopes to get to pitchers in a while. Check it out. Team Spotlight: the Red SoxPosted by Dave StudemanToday's team spotlight is on the red-hot Boston Red Sox. And for the more passionate side of the story, don't miss Ben and Larry's latest column. Saturday, September 04, 2004And Win Shares TooPosted by Dave StudemanWe've got your Win Shares, good through games of September 2nd. Despite the Yankees' recent woes, Gary Sheffield is starting to break away from the pack in the AL MVP race. He now has 27 Win Shares and 14 WSAA, compared to his nearest competitors, Carlos Guillen (!) and teammate Hideki Matsui (both at 24/10). Friday, September 03, 2004THT Leaderboard: Out%Posted by Dave StudemanOur stats have been updated through yesterday's games. One thing we report, thanks to our friends at BIS, is the number of outs created by each player, whether at the plate, on the basepaths, or grounding into a double play. Here's a list of all the players whose outs are 60% or less of their plate appearances (minimum 300 plate appearances): Player Team PA Out% Bonds B. SFG 482 .398 Helton T. COL 534 .551 Berkman L. HOU 536 .569 Thomas F. CHW 311 .569 Snow J. SFG 322 .578 Abreu B. PHI 562 .585 Edmonds J. STL 496 .587 Drew J. ATL 502 .588 Mora M. BAL 473 .588 Loretta M. SDP 568 .593 Hafner T. CLE 486 .595 Rolen S. STL 519 .597 Thome J. PHI 509 .599That Barry Bonds is quite a good player! |
 Baseball NewsFrom USA TodayHurlers change teams: Hoffman to Milwaukee, Smoltz to Boston Pitchers Trevor Hoffman and John Smoltz, longtime icons in their communities with Hall of Fame credentials, severed ties Thursday ... Former big-league pitcher Dave Roberts dies at 64 David Arthur Roberts, a left-handed pitcher who played for eight Major League teams including the 1979 World Series champion ... California woman finds baseball card from 1869 Somewhere amid her collection of worn jukeboxes and slot machines, a 72-year-old California woman recently discovered an antique ... Twins owner remembered as family man, businessman Carl Pohlad rose to the pinnacle of the business world, earning billions and gaining a measure of fame as owner of the Minnesota ... Hairston re-signs with Reds for $2 million Jerry Hairston Jr. stayed with the Cincinnati Reds, agreeing Wednesday to a $2 million, one-year contract. Cooper ready to lead Astros on smoother trip Cecil Cooper's first full season as a major league manager turned into a wild six-month ride that ended with questions about ... Teixeira, Yankees seal $180 million deal Mark Teixeira and the New York Yankees completed their $180 million, eight-year contract Tuesday, announcing the deal in perhaps ... Pitchers Pavano, Park, Marquis get new homes The Cleveland Indians have signed free agent pitcher Carl Pavano, who was a four-year bust with the New York Yankees because ... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||