February 10, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Thursday, September 30, 2004Giants/Padres postmortemThe Padres beat the Giants 4-3 in ten innings last night, hurting the Giants' chances for the wildcard. A lot of the coverage has focused on the game-ending play, in which Dustan Mohr made a questionable judgement call catching a foul fly ball (and subsequently hurting his knee). But that wasn't the key play of the inning. Here's a quick play-by-play of the last inning, including the change in the Padres' chances of winning: - As the inning begins, Padres have a 63% chance of winning. Home teams always have an advantage in extra-inning games. - Ramon Hernandez safe at first on Alfonso's throwing error. Padres's chances increase to 72%. 9% impact. - Torrealba makes a throwing error on Kerry Robinson's bunt, Robinson goes to second, pinch-runner Freddy Guzman to third. Padres chances increase to 93%. 21% impact. This is the key play of the inning. - Jay Payton grounds out, runner out at home (nice play by Torrealba to catch the ball at home). Chances decrease to 84%. 9% impact. - Flyout to Mohr, Padres win. 16% impact. Giant fans should particularly bemoan the error by Torrealba, who is really a fine defensive catcher. This is similar to last year's Bartman game in Chicago, in which Cub fans were upset with Steve Bartman, a fan who interfered with a foul ball, when they really should have been upset with Alex Gonzalez's key error that same inning. Wildcard RaceHouston has jumped into the lead in the NL wildcard race, and Angels now have sole possesion of first place in the AL West. In addition to updating the division race graphs daily, we've added a National League wildcard graph on the Team page, which illustrates the great comeback that Houston has made. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||