December 1, 2008
Now shipping The 2009 Hardball Times Annual is now available. You can read about it here, but just make sure you order it directly from ACTA today. 
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Friday, October 29, 2004Postseason Awards that count!Posted by Dave StudemanThe Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWA), of which many THT writers are proud members, announced its first annual awards today. In a moving ceremony, Barry Bonds, Vlad Guerrero, Johan Sanatana and Randy Johnson were proclaimed the best in their class. You can view the full slate at the all-baseball site. Thursday, October 28, 2004Manny the MVP?Posted by Dave StudemanOkay, does anyone else find it weird that the writers voted Manny Ramirez the Series MVP? Yes, he had some hits, but so did a lot of other Sox. Plus, he almost gave away Game One with an awful play in left field. I mean, what were they thinking? In fact, Jay Bennett names Manny the LEAST Valuable Player in the Series. According to his PGP system, the Series MVP should be David Ortiz, with honorable mentions to Keith Foulke, Mark Bellhorn and Curt Schilling. ANYONE but Manny. SpeechlessPosted by Matthew NameeFirst of all, I'm writing this at 2 AM on Thursday morning, somewhere around 3 1/2 hours after the Red Sox won the World Series. Before the game, I was sure that if Boston won, I'd have tons to say about it. Maybe it's the fact that it's two in the morning, but I honestly don't know what to say. Our seats were in left field, Section 386, a half-dozen rows from the top. Other than not being able to see deep fly balls to left, the view was pretty nice. Next to us were a few Red Sox scouts, among them Matt Haas, the guy who signed Kevin Youkilis. Right after "God Bless America" in the middle of the 7th, Mike Webber and I left our seats and trekked over to Section 359, where Bill James and his wife Susie were sitting. Bill was visibly nervous, and it was then that it began to sink in to me that, you know, we just might pull this off. I spent the whole bottom of the 9th standing behind Bill, on my cell phone with my cousin Nick, a die-hard Boston fan. There's about a three-second delay on the TV broadcast, so when Renteria hit the grounder to Foulke for out #3, I told Nick moments before he saw it on TV. Frankly, as thrilling as it is to have played even the smallest role in this incredible accomplishment, I think I may have been more thrilled that my cousin Nick got to see his Sox win a World Series. The Cardinals fans were extremely kind -- I can't emphasize that enough. The only ones who even said anything to us were congratulating us. There were thousands of Red Sox fans in the stadium, and of course they stayed well after the end of the game. At one point after the victory, a "Yankees suck" chant got started, but then it seemed like everyone collectively realized, "You know what, who gives a damn about the Yankees? We just won the World Series. The Yankees don't matter right now." There is so much that can be said about this Red Sox postseason, the game itself, and all the surrounding stories. I'm exhausted and probably wouldn't be the best guy to write all that anyway, but let me just say that this was a wonderful, unforgettable experience. Oh, one other thing, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only guy to be thinking this... I can't stop wondering, "Okay, what's next?" I'm sure there's something, but this is uncharted territory for pretty much all of us. Really, really cool uncharted territory, but uncharted nonetheless. Wednesday, October 27, 200431,458 DaysPosted by Larry MahnkenCongratulations to the Boston Red Sox and their fans on winning their first World Championship in 86 years. As a Yankees fan, having suffered a terrible humiliation at Boston's hands on the way to losing the ALCS, there is a part of me that didn't want this to happen, but I knew it was time. There are a great many Red Sox fans who I respect and like, and for all of them I am happy. Is this a grand vindication of sabermetrics? I don't know, it certainly is a vindication for the front office of Theo Epstein, which has been criticized for doing it differently, but now they've done something that nobody had been able to do since World War One. Of course, Boston's hardly had the best management, but that's beside the point. So, take off your shoes, and try not to get any dirt on the carpet. Welcome to the club, Red Sox fans. Foulke in lead for Series MVPPosted by Dave StudemanAccording to Jay Bennett's Player Game Percentage, Keith Foulke is the leader for World Series MVP after three games, primarily based on his critical save of Game One. The MVP of last night's game was Manny Ramirez, but he has so many negative points from his first-game fielding adventures that he's still the Least Valuable Player for the entire series. The Cardinals' MVP for the first three games has been Dan Haren. Mr. Namee goes to St. LouisPosted by Matthew NameeIt's a little past midnight Central Time, and I just got back to my hotel from Busch Stadium, where the Red Sox beat the Cardinals 4-1 to take a 3-0 Series lead. The Sox got Mike Webber and I tickets, which were way up in the nosebleeds (Section 378, at the very top row). That's not nearly as bad as it sounds, though, because a) Busch Stadium has great sight lines from pretty much anywhere you sit, and b) the guy in the seat next to me was Al Nipper. Of course, Nipper pitched for the Red Sox back in the '80s, and he's currently the organization's pitching coordinator. Nipper had coached Cardinals starter Jeff Suppan back when Suppan was a Sox prospect, and told us that Suppan raises his arms higher when he's throwing a fastball, lower when it's a curve. Al also talked to me about Tommy Hottovy, my favorite ex-Wichita State Shocker and current Boston pitching prospect. Nipper likes Hottovy a lot; he raved about his maturity and intelligence and said that Hottovy has developed a fantastic pickoff move. The game itself was a blast. Pedro looked shaky early -- the Cards got men in scoring position with less than two outs on multiple occasions, but unusual double plays got the Sox out of both innings. I disagreed with two things in the game: the decision to keep Manny Ramirez in left field in the bottom of the 9th (rather than replace him with Dave Roberts), and the decision to bring in Keith Foulke with a four-run lead. Still, those are minor complaints. I also have to say that the St. Louis fans were some of the friendliest fans I've ever encountered. Even in defeat, they were really gracious to the Red Sox fans in attendance. Nobody actually could tell that Mike and I were Red Sox fans, though -- I was wearing a University of Kansas cap, and Mike wore a Reds hat and a K-State jacket. We're supposed to have lunch with Brian Gunn later today, and I'll be sure to report here after Game 4. Monday, October 25, 2004Schilling Takes Game TwoPosted by Dave StudemanAccording to Jay Bennett's Player Game Percentage, Curt Schilling was the MVP of Game Two, and it wasn't even close. He corralled 18.2 points in yesterday's game, compared to runner-up Jason Varitek, with 8.8 points. Varitek's first-inning triple was the play of the game. Mark Bellhorn (21.0) remains MVP of the Series so far, but Keith Foulke (20.5) and Schilling (18.2) are right behind. Check Jay's site about a day after each game to mark each player's contribution to the game and his team. Congratulations LionsPosted by Craig BurleyCongratulations to the Seibu Lions, who won the Japan Series this morning with a 7-2 win over the Chunichi Dragons in Game 7. Takashi Ishii won his second game of the series with six shutout innings; he didn't give up an earned run in either game he pitched. A five-run third - all the runs scored with two outs - was keyed by a ten-pitch AB by leadoff hitter Tomoaki Sato that resulted in a single and the game's first run. The inning was later capped by a two-run homer by Seibu slugger Alex Cabrera, and the Lions cruised the rest of the way to complete a comeback after having been down 3-2. Sunday, October 24, 2004Bellhorn first game MVPPosted by Dave StudemanYou may be interested in following Jay Bennett's Player Game Percentage coverage of the World Series. Jay is one of the key figures in the development of "Win Expectancy," which we used to cover some of the key games of the year. PGP is Jay's take on WE, and he will post results of his World Series analysis after every game. No surprise that the first game's MVP was Bellhorn. You're probably also not too surprised that Manny Ramirez was the game's "goat." Check Jay's site after every game to see his results. Friday, October 22, 2004Home FieldPosted by Ben JacobsI've been seeing a lot of people talking about how lucky the Red Sox are to have home field advantage in the World Series. Some people are saying that it's unfair that a wild card team gets home field advantage in the World Series over the team with the best record in baseball just because their league won an exhibition game in the middle of the summer. Well, guess who would have had home field advantage under the old system? That's right, the Red Sox. The AL used to get home field in even years, the NL in odd years. Whether you think it's stupid to have home field advantage for the World Series determined by the All-Star game or not, there's no reason to make a big deal out of the change this year. The old system was just as stupid and would have had the exact same result. Now, if you want to propose a third system that's better than both, by all means do so. But don't gripe that the Red Sox are lucky they changed the rules to have things determined by the All-Star game. Thursday, October 21, 2004The “Safe” SignPosted by Craig BurleyA number of readers wrote in to me following my "Interference" article pointing out that first base umpire Jeff Nelson called A-Rod safe at first after the failed tag by Bronson Arroyo in Game 7 on Wednesday night - despite A-Rod never coming close to touching first base. Initially, I agreed with my correspondents, but I was wrong to do so. On further review, and after seeing it pointed out by Ted Turocy and Josh Reyer of SABR, I realized that in fact Nelson is giving the sign in response to the missed tag. The "safe" sign is used when a tag is missed, just as it is given in when a fly ball is trapped, for example. Nelson wasn't calling A-Rod safe at first; he got it right. Many of us watching, not as used to the intricacies of umpire signalling as they are, got it wrong. Should there be a different sign for "not out" than for "safe"? Probably, but that's no reflection on Jeff Nelson. It’s the Redbirds and Red SoxPosted by Dave StudemanThe Cardinals beat the Astros tonight, 5-2, to advance to the World Series. If not for the historic comeback of the Red Sox, this series would have been just as noteworthy for its drama and excellent level of play. Case in point: the spectacular catch by Jim Edmonds in the second inning, robbing the Astros of two runs and a three-run lead. How important was that catch? Well, if Ausmus' smash had fallen in for a double, the Astros would have had a .804 Win Expectancy. Instead, the ball wound up in Edmonds' glove and the Astros wound up with a mere .606 Win Expectancy. That's a swing of .198. That was the second-biggest play of the game. The biggest play of the game, as you can imagine, was Scott Rolen's two-run home run in the sixth inning. That lifted the Cards' WE from .556 to .832, for a WE play of .276. That's a big play. Congratulations to Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and all the Cardinals for a well-deserved trip to the Fall Classic. And let's all hope Steve Lyons never mentions the bunt again! Wednesday, October 20, 2004Yo, Adrian, we did itPosted by Matthew NameeOn Bill Simmons' reader email page, a Sox fan named Joshua Reidy wrote this before the game: This Yankees-Sox series has constantly reminded me of Rocky 2. Last seasons seven-game epic was much like the original Rocky (All we wanted to do was go the distance). This seasons series is much like Rocky 2, the two teams slugging it out, with Creed opening quickly and trying to lay the smack down. However, the sox keep answering the bell, Game 4, Game 5, and now Game 6 to take it to the final round. Think The Rock can beat the count??I love it. Fox went with the Rocky theme tonight too, and they were right -- this ALCS was a movie-style heavyweight fight. And then from Rocky IV, as my cousin Nick kept quoting, "The Russian is cut!" What a comeback. That's all I've got. Running on FumesPosted by Joe DiminoBecause I have nothing better to do (actually, I have plenty better to do, but I love to procrastinate) I plugged pitch counts for every single pitcher in the Yankees/Red Sox series into Diamond Mind to see who is tired. You would probably think that after last night's relatively easy night on the bullpens, several pitchers would be okay. Not so. They are still gassed from the Game 3-5. The only pitchers Diamond Mind would not consider tired in today's game are: Boston: Ramiro Mendoza, Curtis Leskanic New York: Kevin Brown, Tanyon Sturtze, Felix Heredia Terry Francona's potential starters are Tim Wakefield - 43 pitches Monday and 64 on Saturday; Derek Lowe who would be on two days rest after throwing 88 pitches Sunday; or Bronson Arroyo would be on 3 days rest after a 60 pitch outing - except that he threw 40 pitches in relief the last two nights. Oh yeah, his closer has thrown 100 pitches the last 3 days and looked positively awful last night while barely getting past the relatively weak part of the Yankee lineup. I can't imagine he'd be worth anything tonight. This has been a wild series. With pretty much everyone on both staffs that is any good running on fumes, expect some fireworks in the Bronx tonight. Additionally, Jason Varitek has had 206 batters faced as catcher in the last 4 days, Jorge Posada 189. Friday, October 15, 2004That Ol’ First Strike AgainPosted by Craig BurleyOne piece of information that I left out of my "Strike One" articles, and the kind of easy-to-spot thing you can look out for in the playoff games. Pitchers who start out with strike one walk the hitter just 3.9% of the time, while pitchers who start out with ball one walk the hitter 14.2% of the time. So you are three -and-a-half times more likely to walk a guy from 1-0 than from 0-1. |
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