November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Introducing Visual Baseball (1)
HR/FB Park Factors (10) Why Baseball Needs a Visual Facelift (5) Building a Retrosheet database, the short form (4) Is peak at age 29? (7) 
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Friday, October 22, 2004Home FieldI've been seeing a lot of people talking about how lucky the Red Sox are to have home field advantage in the World Series. Some people are saying that it's unfair that a wild card team gets home field advantage in the World Series over the team with the best record in baseball just because their league won an exhibition game in the middle of the summer. Well, guess who would have had home field advantage under the old system? That's right, the Red Sox. The AL used to get home field in even years, the NL in odd years. Whether you think it's stupid to have home field advantage for the World Series determined by the All-Star game or not, there's no reason to make a big deal out of the change this year. The old system was just as stupid and would have had the exact same result. Now, if you want to propose a third system that's better than both, by all means do so. But don't gripe that the Red Sox are lucky they changed the rules to have things determined by the All-Star game. Thursday, October 21, 2004The “Safe” SignA number of readers wrote in to me following my "Interference" article pointing out that first base umpire Jeff Nelson called A-Rod safe at first after the failed tag by Bronson Arroyo in Game 7 on Wednesday night - despite A-Rod never coming close to touching first base. Initially, I agreed with my correspondents, but I was wrong to do so. On further review, and after seeing it pointed out by Ted Turocy and Josh Reyer of SABR, I realized that in fact Nelson is giving the sign in response to the missed tag. The "safe" sign is used when a tag is missed, just as it is given in when a fly ball is trapped, for example. Nelson wasn't calling A-Rod safe at first; he got it right. Many of us watching, not as used to the intricacies of umpire signalling as they are, got it wrong. Should there be a different sign for "not out" than for "safe"? Probably, but that's no reflection on Jeff Nelson. It’s the Redbirds and Red SoxThe Cardinals beat the Astros tonight, 5-2, to advance to the World Series. If not for the historic comeback of the Red Sox, this series would have been just as noteworthy for its drama and excellent level of play. Case in point: the spectacular catch by Jim Edmonds in the second inning, robbing the Astros of two runs and a three-run lead. How important was that catch? Well, if Ausmus' smash had fallen in for a double, the Astros would have had a .804 Win Expectancy. Instead, the ball wound up in Edmonds' glove and the Astros wound up with a mere .606 Win Expectancy. That's a swing of .198. That was the second-biggest play of the game. The biggest play of the game, as you can imagine, was Scott Rolen's two-run home run in the sixth inning. That lifted the Cards' WE from .556 to .832, for a WE play of .276. That's a big play. Congratulations to Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and all the Cardinals for a well-deserved trip to the Fall Classic. And let's all hope Steve Lyons never mentions the bunt again! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||