December 1, 2008
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Thursday, December 30, 2004Bert and RichPosted by Dave StudemanRich Lederer has made it a personal crusade to get Bert Blyleven voted into the Hall of Fame. It's a worthy crusade, and Rich has invested a lot of personal energy to give the man the credit he deserves. Rich has been rewarded for his obsession with a fine interview with Blyleven, including a great anecdote about the time Rich was fooled by Blyleven's curve. Check it out. Wednesday, December 29, 2004Another Kind of ReliefPosted by Dave StudemanThe death toll from the Indian Ocean Earthquake and tsunami continues to rise and may very well reach over 80,000 lives. Obviously, this is a terrible tragedy that overshadows anything we might say about baseball. If you can afford it, please consider donating financial relief to these devastated areas. Here is a list of relief organizations you can contribute to. Friday, December 24, 2004Happy Holidays to AllPosted by Dave StudemanWe want to wish all of our readers a very Happy Holiday season. This has been a great inaugural season for The Hardball Times, and we thank each and every one of you for your support. We'll still be talking baseball between the holidays, so be sure to drop by. Wednesday, December 22, 2004Urban on the A’sPosted by Aaron GleemanThe best Oakland A's blog around, Athletics Nation, has a Q&A posted with MLB.com A's beat writer Mychael Urban. As you might expect, Urban primarily answers questions about the A's dealing Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, and he gives some interesting insights. Urban also talks a little bit about his upcoming book on Oakland's "Big Three," which suddenly has a whole different meaning. Also, the boys over at All-Baseball.com have a nice back-and-forth discussion about Oakland's wheeling and dealing. Monday, December 20, 2004Stunned UpdatePosted by Dave StudemanYahoo reports that the Angels have just signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a four-year deal worth $8 million a year. In related news, Placido Polanco apparently wasn't wanted by any major league team and accepted arbitration from the Phillies. I originally said that this must be the worst signing of the offseason, but my Fair Market Value calculator indicates that it isn't really out of line if you assume: 1. He'll create 77 runs next year (per the Bill James Handbook), and 2. He's a great defender My bottom line is that I still think this is a bad deal, but probably not the worst of the offseason. Given the salaries being thrown around, however, I'm amazed Polanco didn't get a nice deal from someone. His bat is better than Cabrera's and he's a fine defender. For no good reason that I can see, he's stuck with the "utility infielder" tag. Sunday, December 19, 2004Pretend You’re Billy Beane….Posted by Dave StudemanYou're sitting around your Oakland office, looking at all the shenanigans in the Free Agent market. Now, you don't have enough money to pay a free agent, but you've noticed that starting pitchers seem to be in high demand this offseason -- overvalued, even. Plus, you currently have three of the best young starters in baseball on your staff, and you know you're likely to lose at least two of them in the next two years. What do you do? Click for more... The Latest from WashingtonPosted by Dave StudemanField of Schemes has a great review of a Washington Post article regarding the Washington DC team and ballpark brouhaha. Check it out. Thursday, December 16, 2004The Real Winter MeetingsPosted by Aaron GleemanI enjoyed reading about various bloggers' trips to the Winter Meetings and, I have to admit, it sounded like a pretty good time. Sort of like half SABR convention and half (baseball) celebrity meet-and-greet. All-Baseball.com's Ken Arneson, however, tells a very different (and animated) tale. If you only watch one flash movie about baseball bloggers today, make it this one! The Real Winter Meetings Gammons Wins SpinkPosted by Dave StudemanBefore I'd heard of Bill James or the Internet -- shoot, before I got married, had kids and went all gray in the hair -- there was Peter Gammons. I lived in Boston in the late 1970's and early 1980's, and every Sunday the highlight of my baseball addiction came to me via the Boston Globe: Gammons' Sunday column. It was full of notes and insights and, yes, gossip, that the intelligent fan literally couldn't get anywhere else. Days when he actually ran a column during the week were like holidays. To me, it is the archetype, the standard by which I judge all baseball writing. So when I heard that he had won the J.G. Taylor Spink Award from the BBWAA, my main reaction was surprise that he hadn't won it already. Congratulations, Mr. Gammons. And thanks for the inspiration. See you in Cooperstown. Friday, December 10, 2004The Williams ContractPosted by Dave StudemanIn today's review of free agents, Aaron wondered how Jon Lieber could get $7 million a year for three years and Woody Williams only get $3.5 million for one year, albeit with incentives. Got to admit, I wondered the same thing. I guess the answer is in the incentives. Reportedly, the Williams deal is really worth about $14.5 million over two years. Williams will receive over $100,000 for every start, up to 32 starts, and the option for 2006 will vest automatically if he starts at least 15 games in 2005. He started 31 games this year. That's a nice way to guard against injuries, but $7 million a year seems to be the going rate for an average major league starter -- even one in his late 30's. Tuesday, December 07, 2004A RantPosted by Dave StudemanI keep reading that certain contracts, such as the Benson and Guzman deals, have been bad for baseball because they've "set the market." Poppycock. I like to write about the free agent market as much as anyone, but the truth is that whatever market exists for baseball players, it is far from "perfect." Every contract is a unique negotiation between a General Manager and a player's agent, and it is up to the GM to cut the best deal for his team, regardless of other deals. This business of "setting the market" is simply agent positioning, and the baseball media and teams should ignore it. Moreover, the potential value of a free agent Player to one Club may be different from the same Player's value to another Club. Given this, the amount that your Club is willing to pay a free agent may appropriately differ from the value range supplied above… That's a quote from the much-maligned form that Major League Baseball uses to consult with its teams about salaries. It's an important disclaimer, and one that ballclubs should heed. Stop the insanity. Bring salaries back to a reasonable level. You can do it, guys. Wednesday, December 01, 2004Proving MoneyballPosted by Dave StudemanJC, who runs the Sabernomics blog, recently attended an economics conference that included, among other things, presentations of baseball economics. One paper in particular, An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis, is fascinating for two reasons: First, the authors set out to prove that major league teams truly did undervalue OBP before the publication of Moneyball -- and they make their case very well. But to take it a step further, they also show that the baseball "market" subsequently valued OBP correctly after Moneyball's publication -- proving that General Managers really did read and learn from the book (despite the widespread disdain shown toward it). Second, they used Win Expectancy/PGP analyses of the 1999 and 2000 seasons to prove a number of things that have been discussed before. For instance, they show that OBP really should be valued twice as highly as SLG. And they developed their own set of Linear Win Weights for each event on the baseball field (closely following the approach already used by Tangotiger). This is geeky stuff, but the article is very readable, and I recommend it to my fellow baseball geeks. |
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