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October 2006
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Sunday, October 22, 2006

World Series Probabilities After Game 2


Now that the World Series is heading back to St. Louis knotted at one apiece, the Tigers still have an edge--but just barely. Adjusting for league, Detroit has a 59% chance of taking the title; without the adjustment, it's just over 52%. Despite that, the Cardinals have a better shot of winning the series in five games than do the Tigers. Not only do they have home-field advantage for the next three games, but Games 3 and 4 are the games that I pegged as the most likely for them to win.

Here's the complete list of possible outcomes:
DET  STL   NoAdj LgAdj
WIN  LOSE  52.6% 59.1%
LOSE WIN   47.4% 40.9%
4    1     8.8%  11.0%
4    2     22.8% 26.0%
4    3     21.0% 22.1%
3    4     17.8% 16.2%
2    4     13.3% 11.2%
1    4     16.3% 13.5%


Posted by Jeff Sackmann at 10:41pm (0) Comments

Sunday, October 15, 2006

NLCS: Cardinals vs. Mets: Suppan Carries Cards


Jeff Suppan hit a home run and pitched a strong eight innings, allowing only three hits and one walk against four strikeouts to lead the Cardinals to a 2-1 series lead. The Mets have been the class of the NL this season, but now face a must-win game today.

Posted by Bryan Tsao at 11:57am (0) Comments

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Cardinals advance to NLCS


The Cardinals ended the Padres season with a 6-2 win in Game 4 of the NLDS. Chris Carpenter pitched a gem, going seven strong innings while only allowing two runs, while Juan Encarnacion helped the Cardinals offense break through in the bottom of the sixth inning with an RBI triple. The Cardinals will kick off the NLCS on the road against the Mets on Wednesday.

Posted by Bryan Tsao at 10:31pm (0) Comments

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

A’s beat Twins


The A's beat Johan Santana and the Twins today, 3-2. ESPN's announcers chose Frank Thomas as their Game MVP. It's hard to argue against a guy who hit two home runs, but the WPA leader of the game was actually Barry Zito, who only gave up one run over eight innings. Zito's WPA was .341 and Thomas's was .195. Actually, Thomas finished third on the A's in WPA; Huston Street was second (.228). Santana led the Twins in WPA with .159.

Posted by Dave Studeman at 2:32pm (0) Comments

Monday, October 02, 2006

16 Game Winners


All of our stats and graphs, including Win Shares, reflect the full season. You may know that there were no 20-game winners this year, but did you also know that there were twelve 16-game winners? That's the highest total ever; the previous high was 10 in 1992.

Posted by Dave Studeman at 5:53pm (0) Comments