May 25, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Sunday, October 22, 2006World Series Probabilities After Game 2Now that the World Series is heading back to St. Louis knotted at one apiece, the Tigers still have an edge--but just barely. Adjusting for league, Detroit has a 59% chance of taking the title; without the adjustment, it's just over 52%. Despite that, the Cardinals have a better shot of winning the series in five games than do the Tigers. Not only do they have home-field advantage for the next three games, but Games 3 and 4 are the games that I pegged as the most likely for them to win. Here's the complete list of possible outcomes: DET STL NoAdj LgAdj WIN LOSE 52.6% 59.1% LOSE WIN 47.4% 40.9% 4 1 8.8% 11.0% 4 2 22.8% 26.0% 4 3 21.0% 22.1% 3 4 17.8% 16.2% 2 4 13.3% 11.2% 1 4 16.3% 13.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||