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November 2006
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Sunday, November 19, 2006

8 Years and $136 Million


ESPN's Chicago radio station has evidently reported that the Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8-year deal worth $136 million. That's $17 million a year.

If true, that will make Soriano a Cub through the 2014 season. No other player is signed through even 2013, though one player, David Wright, has an option for that year. Wright will be 30 years old in 2013. Soriano will be 38 in 2014.

One good thing: Soriano should put up some good home run totals in Wrigley Field.

Posted by Dave Studeman at 3:54pm

Saturday, November 11, 2006

NUMB3RS


Did you watch the TV show NUMB3RS last night? It was about a baseball player who is murdered (by some "bad" steroids) because, well, I'm not sure why. But it featured a dorky kid who is really into baseball stats and fantasy baseball, and who had developed a formula to detect which players are taking steroids. George Mitchell might be interested.

But what was most interesting, at least to me, was that the website the dorky kid posted to was called "The Boxscore Times." Ring a bell? Plus, the name of the episode was "Hardball." Wow. Almost famous...

Posted by Dave Studeman at 5:12pm

Friday, November 03, 2006

Buster Olney Doesn’t Get It Again


Buster Olney wrote an ESPN column today (subscription required) about the latest Gold Glove awards and how difficult it is to evaluate fielding. He tells an interesting story of how coaches make their Gold Glove choices off the top of their heads, and he also criticizes some of the latest fielding stats.

Now, advanced fielding stats aren't perfect, but Olney makes his case by first finding fault with Range Factor (which was created over 20 years ago) and then totally screwing up a description of the most advanced stats (like MGL's Ultimate Zone Rating and John Dewan's Plus/Minus system). Olney says, Other statistical measures depend on an evaluator sitting in the press box effectively gauging whether a fielder might have/should have reached a ball...

No they don't, Buster! Companies like Baseball Info Solutions do track where each ball lands on a field, and they then calculate how often each ball batted in that location was fielded for an out (they also factor in how hard the ball was hit, and what type of batted ball it was). Fielders are compared those average outcomes and then ranked accordingly. No one sits in a pressbox and determines whether a ball should have been caught or not.

The disappointing thing is that Olney has covered the majors for years. How can he not know this????

Posted by Dave Studeman at 1:45pm