February 10, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008My predictions vs. RealityYesterday, I published an article predicting what would happen in today's Cooperstown election. How'd I do? Well . . . I said Gossage would be the only one to go in, with Rice narrowly missing. Check and check. I should note, I originally had Rice getting 76%, but figured I'm going to root for my predictions to be true, and I don't want to root for Rice to get in. Since I figured he was on the borderline, I changed my prediction. Not at all scientific, then again I never threw in with those who thought sabermetrics was a science. I pegged this year's vote to have the fewest names per ballot in BBWAA's Cooperstown voting history. Yup, it did. Looking at the 15 specific players I guesstimated on: Exactly right: 1 (Parker) Off by 1%: 3 (Concepcion, Trammell, Morris) Off by 2%: 3 (Rice, Murphy, Baines) Off by 3%: 3 (Gossage, John, Mattingley) Off by 4%: 1 (Dawson) Off by 6%: 1 (Blyleven) Off by 8%: 2 (Smith, McGwire) Commically off: 1 (Raines) I did an absolutely horrible, inept, and ludicrously bad job on it. I used some tallies to guide me. But, I based it on what those tallies were saying 2 weeks before the vote came out. Repoz and Keith Law kept tallying, and their estimates dropped down, thus I screwed up. This isn't an excuse, because I should've handled it better, but merely an explanation. On the backloggers, I was of by an average of 3.1%. Altogether, I had two-thirds within 3%. I feel pretty good about it. THT Round table: Nick Swisher to the White SoxIn a belated round table entry, the THT staff weighs in on the Swisher deal. Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||