November 8, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Rob Neyer, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
In the backwater swirling (1)
Ranking Yankee World Champions (3) Twins strike for J.J. Hardy (1) Both sides come out ahead in Teahen swap (9) Rays get something for nothing in Iwamura trade (6) 
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008My predictions vs. RealityYesterday, I published an article predicting what would happen in today's Cooperstown election. How'd I do? Well . . . I said Gossage would be the only one to go in, with Rice narrowly missing. Check and check. I should note, I originally had Rice getting 76%, but figured I'm going to root for my predictions to be true, and I don't want to root for Rice to get in. Since I figured he was on the borderline, I changed my prediction. Not at all scientific, then again I never threw in with those who thought sabermetrics was a science. I pegged this year's vote to have the fewest names per ballot in BBWAA's Cooperstown voting history. Yup, it did. Looking at the 15 specific players I guesstimated on: Exactly right: 1 (Parker) Off by 1%: 3 (Concepcion, Trammell, Morris) Off by 2%: 3 (Rice, Murphy, Baines) Off by 3%: 3 (Gossage, John, Mattingley) Off by 4%: 1 (Dawson) Off by 6%: 1 (Blyleven) Off by 8%: 2 (Smith, McGwire) Commically off: 1 (Raines) I did an absolutely horrible, inept, and ludicrously bad job on it. I used some tallies to guide me. But, I based it on what those tallies were saying 2 weeks before the vote came out. Repoz and Keith Law kept tallying, and their estimates dropped down, thus I screwed up. This isn't an excuse, because I should've handled it better, but merely an explanation. On the backloggers, I was of by an average of 3.1%. Altogether, I had two-thirds within 3%. I feel pretty good about it. THT Round table: Nick Swisher to the White SoxIn a belated round table entry, the THT staff weighs in on the Swisher deal. Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||