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Friday, April 18, 2008More on LongoriaSky has some good math and perspective on the recent Evan Longoria deal. The Rays' management team has been very creative with long-term deals and option years for several years now. Every once in a while, they'll sign a clunker (as in Rocco Baldelli) but it's a very smart strategy for the team. And, as Sky points out, there are logical reasons for Longoria to take the deal, too. April ciphers, P.S.Just some extra stuff I researched on what early results mean: The league leaders on May 1 of every year since divisional play began (except for strike-shortened years, since the dates are messed up) have the eventual playoff team atop their division/wild card 47 percent of the time. In other words, if this year is average, based off May 1 four of the division/wild card leaders are going to go to the playoffs; the other four will be replaced by hotter teams down the road. That 47 percent goes up to 57 percent off June 1's standings, 63 percent off July 1's, 72 percent off August 1's, and 85 percent off September 1's. 1996-2000 was the only stretch of consecutive years where May 1's standings were more than half right by the end of the season; they haven't been greater than half right since 2003. However, the standings have almost never been completely wrong; only in 1973 and 1989 were they worthless. In the wild card era, the only leagues that have been completely wrong were the 2001 and 2007 NL. Last year, the playoff teams from May 1 would have been the Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, and Mets; that kinda didn't happen. If you're feeling down about your team after April is through, consider the following first-place-in-May teams to console yourself with the small sample size: 1975: Brewers and Tigers tied at 10-7 to lead the East; they would be the two worst teams in the majors after that. 1978: Athletics at 16-5 to lead the West; even though they led through June 1, they finished at 69-93, in front of only the Mariners. 1980: Blue Jays surprise by leading the East at 9-8; they did not surprise by finishing last at 67-95. 1988: Indians at 16-7 to lead the East; by season's end they would be one of only two teams more than 3.5 out. 1992: Giants, Padres, and Reds are tied for the lead in the West on May and June 1, but the Braves win the division. 1993: Tigers and Angels lead the AL on May and June 1; Angels are the worst team in the AL after that point, and the Tigers are sub-.500. 1997-1998: Brewers lead the AL Central one year and the NL Central the next. In '98, the only teams worse after May 1 were the Marlins and Devil Rays. 2002-2003: Expos lead the wild card; about the only thing that came out of either year was the Indians getting Grady Sizemore. Youppi! 2003: Royals start off 17-8 to lead the Central; they actually stay in contention for awhile, but...how weird was that? 2005: Orioles are 17-7 to lead the East; they collapse amidst regression to their talent level, Lee Mazzilli's firing, and an unhealthy dose of B-12. Obviously, these are extreme examples, but they serve as a nice reminder that what your favorite team is doing right now has more hubbub but less relevance than at any other time in the year. April is just an exchange of pawns in the chess game of baseball. When it comes to overdoing its important...don't accept the gambit. Sabathia’s Missing SlidersPeter Bendix goes in-depth into C.C. Sabathia's struggles to begin the year. Sabathia is throwing less sliders than in previous years; is he hurt? Wow. Longoria Inks 9-Year Deal.No, I'm not joking. Evan Longoria and the Rays agreed to a 9-year deal today. It buys out all of his arbitration years at a guaranteed $17.5 million and then there are three team option years with the potential maximum value of the entire contract at $44 million. That was a looooong gameLast night, my infant son woke us up at 4 am. It was your typical night-waking: I picked him up, shooshed him in his ear, rocked him for a few minutes, and he went right back to sleep. He was asleep, but now I was wide awake. I stumbled out to the living room, fired up the computer, and figured I could catch up on the scores for the west coast games. I live in the Northeast, so there's plenty of baseball going on around the time I hit the sack. Imagine my surprise when I clicked over to MLB.com and found that the Rockies-Padres tilt was still going! It took my sleepy mind a few minutes to compute...4 am...game started at 10 pm...six hours...holy crap! Six hours! Clearly, my son was trying to let me know that I shouldn't miss the end of this game - and I didn't. By the end of the game, Kip Wells and Glendon Rusch were pitching, and I can only imagine that their respective managers told them that the game was theirs to win or lose. The teams combined for 37 strikeouts but drew only 7 walks. Fifteen pitchers contributed over 650 pitches. Randy Wolf got into the game as a pinch hitter...but didn't pitch! Baseball needs crazy games like this. I love it! Box score | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||