December 1, 2008

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The 2009 Hardball Times Annual is now available. You can read about it here, but just make sure you order it directly from ACTA today.




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THT Live Calendar
September 2008
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Ben Jacobs: modern day Nostradamus

Posted by Chris Jaffe
At the season's outset, 18 THT-ities submitted their preseason predictions. Now that the year's over, let's see how we did and rank us. The ranking system is easy—if you predict a team comes in first and it comes in fifth, that's four points. If it's third, that's two points. Low score did the job.

Ben Jacobs 29 points
Chris Neault 30 points
John Barten 32 points
Matthew Carruth 33 points
Chris Jaffe 33 points
Richard Barbieri 34 points
David Gassko 35 points
John Beamer 35 points
Bryan Tsao 35 points
David Studenman 36 points
Steve Treder 36 points
Lisa Gray 36 points
Geoff Young 37 points
Brian Borowski 38 points
Craig Brown 38 points
John Walsh 39 points
Sal Baxamusa 39 points
Brandon Isleib 40 points

Congrats to Ben Jacobs. Also, please note that John Barten was the only person to get an entire division perfectly ordered—- the AL West.


The Red Sox have the best offense of any AL playoff team

Posted by Sal Baxamusa
Okay, no surprise there. Pursuant to yesterday's post, I did the AL teams as well: likely roster, likely lineups, and current Marcel projections.

Red Sox: 5.67 runs per game (Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, Mark Kotsay, Sean Casey, Jason Varitek, Jed Lowrie).
LA Angels: 5.48 runs per game (Chone Figgins, Garret Anderson, Mark Teixeira, Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, Gary Matthews Jr, Erick Aybar).
Rays: 5.43 runs per game (Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Dioner Navarro, Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes, Eric Hinske, Jason Bartlett).
White Sox: 5.09 runs per game (Orlando Cabrera, Dewayne Wise, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Ken Griffey Jr, Alexei Ramirez, A.J. Pierzynski, Juan Uribe).

No real surprises here.


Height and home run rates

Posted by David Gassko
I got an e-mail from a reporter today inquiring about changes in home run rates among differently sized players. His question piqued my interest, and I decided to run a simple query, checking on whether players of different heights have seen their home run rates decline by different amounts since the peak of the home run boom.
Click for more...

How the Twins and White Sox score

Posted by Dave Studeman
As the Twins and White Sox prepare to battle it out for the American League Central title tonight, I thought you might appreciate this little graph of how teams score. I first introduced this graph format in this article (quick tip: circle sizes are based on number of home runs hit), and it's still one of my favorites.

Take a look...
Click for more...

Monday, September 29, 2008

The Dodgers have the best offense of any NL playoff team

Posted by Sal Baxamusa
Don't believe me? I don't blame you. The Dodgers scored 4.32 runs per game in the regular season, well below average. But there are a few problems with looking at that figure. First, the Dodgers are not the same team today that they were in April. Second, backups and scrubs are far less likely to see playing time in the postseason. Last, and most importantly, we can't look at a team's performance record and assume that they'll continue to perform the same. So, we have to figure out which players are on the roster, which ones are likely to play, and what the true talent of those players are going forward.

I did just that, here's what I came up with:
Click for more...

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Fielder vs. Braun

Posted by Chris Jaffe
Just got back from tonight's Cub-Brewer game in Milwaukee. I saw so many Ryan Braun jerseys than Prince Fielder ones I started to keep a tally. Result:

Braun: 48
Fielder: 12

Also, I counted 10 Hardys, 5 Harts, 4 Sheets, and 1 Carlo Lee.

(There's no repeats - there's a way I know that, but it's long/boring to explain).



Friday, September 26, 2008

Plunking the Indians

Posted by Dave Studeman
Cleveland set a major league record last night when they were hit by a pitch for the 101st time this season. Michael Bourn, of Plunk Biggo fame, has written a guest column at Let's Go Tribe about the Indians' new mark.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Cubs with monobrows

Posted by Dave Studeman
A few Chicago Cubs got together and posted a video on Funny or Die. So this is what they do to pass time on the road?

AL Central symmetry

Posted by Brandon Isleib
The standings in the AL Central:

White Sox 86-71
Twins 86-72
Indians 79-79
Royals 73-86
Tigers 71-86

I haven't researched this at all, but I suspect this is the closest any league or division has ever gotten to perfect symmetry in the win-loss records this late in the year. It has no bearing on anything, but it looks cool.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Marshall report

Posted by Dave Studeman
Alex Eisenberg has a nice scouting report up on Yankee prospect Brett Marshall.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Dodgers still remain favorites

Posted by Alex Eisenberg
Despite Arizona winning six of their last seven games, Jon Weisman notes the Dodgers remain the NL West favorites with 13 games left to play...

An early look at the early predictions

Posted by Dave Studeman
Vegas Watch assesses the various preseason predictions from some of the major outlets. His finding: don't listen to ESPN. Plus, it's past time to give PECOTA its due. Nate Silver is concentrating on the presidential race these days, but his PECOTA system is a gift that keeps giving.

Friday, September 19, 2008

When owners dream

Posted by Dave Studeman
Shysterball looks deep into the fantasies of major league owners. Hey, if it could happen to AIG, why not NYA?

Catching up in September

Posted by Dave Studeman
I'm working away on the 2009 Hardball Times Annual (preorder it now!), collecting articles from over 40 prominent baseball writers and preparing THT's usual stable of stupendous stats. Among other things, we list each team's wins, losses, ERA and other stats on a monthly basis. So I have a lot of spreadsheets of 2008 data to load.

I took last year's monthly team spreadsheet and inputted each team's monthly 2008 wins and losses through the end of August (got to wait for the season to end before inputting the September stats). As a result of combining this year's monthly totals with last year's year-end totals, I got an interesting picture of how each team will have to perform in September to match last year's record....
Click for more...

Getting it done

Posted by Dave Studeman
Patrick Sullivan has posted a "Getting It Done" list of All Stars—those players who have performed the best since August 1st. Here is the list of position players and here are the pitchers. In other words, these players are helping their teams stay in the pennant race as the season comes to its conclusion.

We often notice hot starts (such as Chase Utley's and Chipper's) or sizzling performances after switching teams (Hello, Manny) but great performances are great no matter when they occur.

For daily results, visit the THT Daily Archive.

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