January 8, 2009

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The 2009 Hardball Times Annual is now available. You can read about it here, but just make sure you order it directly from ACTA today.




And here's the full roster.

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THT Live Calendar
December 2008
S M T W T F S

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

A Flurry of Moves

Posted by Matthew Carruth
Mark DeRosa heads to Cleveland for three minor leaguers as the Cubs ink Aaron Miles to a 2-year deal and the Angels sign Brian Fuentes to a 2-year deal with an option for a third.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Was Jim Rice feared?

Posted by Dave Studeman
Wezen-ball has a nice research piece on whether Jim Rice was the most "feared" slugger of his time. Personally, I find this whole "feared" thing to be an bizarre way of judging a player to be Hall of Fame material. Dick Allen was feared in his day, but that seems to work against him.

For what it's worth, I did a quick search in the New York Times archives and found two references to Rice being feared. In June, 1978, Reggie Jackson said "He's the most feared hitter in the game right now." In a 1979 article about Rice's golf game, Dave Anderson reported "But his quiet pride as baseball's most feared home-run hitter was apparent..."

Make of that what you will.

Win values explained: part two

Posted by Dave Studeman
Here is the second part of Dave Cameron's Win Values explanation at Fan Graphs. This stuff is key reading. Win Values aren't perfect, but they're likely to become the "go to" stat of the future.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Win values explained, part one

Posted by Dave Studeman
There's been an awful lot going on at Fangraphs and I can't keep up with it all. Dave Cameron is coming to my rescue, though. Here is his first blog entry describing how the batting portion of win values is calculated. Of course, to really get it, you'll need to understand wOBA and wRAA. Everything new is new again.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Historical Win Shares

Posted by Dave Studeman
I've updated my historical Win Shares files. You can download them, in comma-separated (CSV) format, from the Baseball Graphs FTP site. CSV files can be imported into Access, Excel and many other applications. The files include Win Shares for virtually all major leaguers through the 2008 season. Plus, you can calculate your own "loss shares" or replacement level from the info.

The price of free agent pitching

Posted by Dave Studeman
Driveline Mechanics looks at the past two years' free agent pitcher signings, using the new salary calculations available from Fangraphs. I don't know enough about Fangraphs' calculations to say whether this analysis is legitimate, but pitchers have been paid relatively more than position players ever since we first started tracking salaries at THT. As the Sabathia signing shows, this isn't going to change anytime soon.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

The Big Unit Heads to the Bay

Posted by Matthew Carruth
Frankly, this seemed like a move more out of Oakland than San Francisco, but look out now because the Giants just added Randy Johnson to a rotation already consisting of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. Oh yeah, and Barry Zito. Still, coupled with a lineup that isn't going to be too outmatched by anything else being put up in the division and are the Giants now the favorites in the NL West?

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Yankee perspective

Posted by Dave Studeman
Results Disoriented has a little perspective on the Yankees' spending spree. Compared to 2008, New York hasn't spent as much as you might think, and they haven't improved as much as you might think. Don't believe me? Click on the link.

Will CC set the record?

Posted by Dave Studeman
Paul Lukas has the scoop on a vital baseball stat that I hadn't thought of: the number of pinstripes on a Yankee uniform. Will CC set a new record? Lukas has the projections, including an era adjustment.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Interview with me

Posted by Dave Studeman
Rich Lederer was nice enough to interview me about the Hardball Times Annual.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Projection Central

Posted by Dave Studeman
Wow, Sean Smith has done dynamite work on his new website, Projection Central. The site now includes expanded pages for all players, including probabilities for different levels of production, a six-year forecast and a simple player valuation (based on basic salary and WAR assumptions). There are even defensive projections for all players, expressed as plus/minus plays compared to average.

All of these figures are based on his CHONE forecasting system, which is one of the best forecasting systems around. And it's all free. Check it out.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Ah, Dock

Posted by Dave Studeman
Dock Ellis died of liver disease yesterday, stirring memories of baseball in the early '70's. That was a time of heightened, overt black pride in baseball and drug experimentation in our larger society, and Ellis came to embody both. Jay Jaffe remembers Dock, and you can read more about his drug-"induced" no-hitter in this article.

Those of us who revel in quirky baseball trivia remember that he was once traded for George Medich (and Willie Randolph), who was an actual, real-live doctor inevitably nicknamed Doc. Yes, it was a trade of Doc(k)s.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Just a typical Cubs’ fan

Posted by Dave Studeman
This video is hilarious.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Free 2009 projections

Posted by Dave Studeman
Sean "Call Me Chone" Smith is making his 2009 CHONE projections available for free. This is a great service by Sean; tests have shown that the CHONE projections are as accurate as they come.

Why players don’t read game threads

Posted by Dave Studeman
In the best tradition of xkcd, Lookout Landing has penned a cartoon about baseball players and discussion boards.

For daily results, visit the THT Daily Archive.

Baseball News

From
USA Today

AP: Red Sox set to add Smoltz to rotation, Baldelli to outfield
John Smoltz has reached a preliminary agreement on a contract with the Boston Red Sox, a stunning end to his long career with ...


Hairston re-signs with Reds for $2 million
Jerry Hairston Jr. stayed with the Cincinnati Reds, agreeing Wednesday to a $2 million, one-year contract.


Cooper ready to lead Astros on smoother trip
Cecil Cooper's first full season as a major league manager turned into a wild six-month ride that ended with questions about ...


Teixeira, Yankees seal $180 million deal
Mark Teixeira and the New York Yankees completed their $180 million, eight-year contract Tuesday, announcing the deal in perhaps ...


Pitchers Pavano, Park, Marquis get new homes
The Cleveland Indians have signed free agent pitcher Carl Pavano, who was a four-year bust with the New York Yankees because ...


Phillies' Romero says he's not guilty in doping suspension
Phillies reliever J.C. Romero and Yankees minor league pitcher Sergio Mitre were suspended for the first 50 games of next season ...


After helping beat Rays, Burrell set to join them
The Tampa Bay Rays won't pretend they can keep up with the New York Yankees in the free agent market, but after signing outfielder/DH ...


Minnesota Twins owner Pohlad dies at 93
Carl Pohlad, a billionaire banker whose Minnesota Twins won two World Series titles during nearly his nearly quarter-century ...