November 23, 2009

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The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT.

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Tuesday, June 02, 2009

College World Series odds: Pre-Super Regionals


The final 16 is set. As much fun as underdog stories can be, we don't get that many of them. Top seeds won 13 of the 16 regionals, and one of the three "underdogs" was Virginia, which should've been the favorite anyway. Arkansas got past Oklahoma, and Southern Miss—the only No. 3 seed to advance—overcame Georgia Tech.

The NCAA has already announced the hosts of the eight Super Regionals. No real surprises, especially since six of the eight national seeds advanced, and those teams were guaranteed to host the next round no matter what. I bring it up just as a reminder that home-field is important—more so in college baseball than in the pros. My simulator uses the assumption that, given equal talent levels, home teams win at a 56 percent rate. Thus, the Texas-TCU and North Carolina-East Carolina matchups could be heavily influenced by the venue. Hosts are favored to win each of the eight Super Regionals with the exception of (you guessed it) the Virginia-Mississippi contest in Oxford.

Keep reading for the full report.

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Posted by Jeff Sackmann at 8:55am