November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Introducing Visual Baseball (1)
HR/FB Park Factors (8) Why Baseball Needs a Visual Facelift (5) Building a Retrosheet database, the short form (4) Is peak at age 29? (7) 
Or you can search by:
Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Find premium Chicago Cubs tickets and other Chicago tickets at JustGreatTickets.com. Chicago Cubs Tickets Chicago Tickets  All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Sunday, August 09, 2009Smoltz DFA’dHere is what John Smoltz has done so far this year: 40 IP 9 BB 33 K 8 HR 4.92 FIP 4.32 xFIP While he certainly hasn't been pitching like he did in his prime, it's clear that John Smoltz has had a pretty solid year. His K:BB ratio is actually above his career marks, and only an elevated HR/FB ratio is keeping his FIP high. As most people who read this site know, HR/FB is, for the most part, out of a pitchers control. Especially when that pitcher pitches half of his games in front of the Green Monster. If you are a believer in xFIP, which adjusts for that HR/FB luck, then he has been pitching like a league average starter, which is quite a feat while pitching in a hitters ballpark and in the toughest division in baseball. That makes this, all the more surprising: Of course, Smoltz's ERA is 8.33; however, the Red Sox are supposedly one of the more sabermetric friendly organizations out there. Anyway, Smoltz is now free to all teams and could be a good pickup for a contending team with a hole in the starting rotation or bullpen (hint, hint... Cardinals). ZIPS projects a 3.60 FIP the rest of the season, although that seems a little bullish given his advanced age. Still, even adding a half a run per 9 to that projection would still make him a valuable pitcher, and his postseason experience could only be a positive. The sorrow and the pity: a brief reflection on the state of the RoyalsRecently, a close friend wrote in re an effort of mine over at RotoSynthesis — a short meditation on the possible fate of newly minted Yinzer Jeff Clement — he wrote: I think one of the best things about fantasy sports is getting over-involved with the careers of fringe major-leaguers. This affords one the unusual opportunity to go to a big outdoor building containing 50,000 other people and know for specific reasons that you are smarter than all of them.On account of my friend is the sort of person who unironically lists “self-improvement” among his chief interests, there’s a good chance that he actively seeks out such experiences as he outlines in this email. The Reader of the present weblog very probably does not harbor such illusions of grandeur. Few do, I’d say, and the world is all the better for it. Regardless, my conceited bud has a point: the Sabermetrically Inclined Spectator (which, I’m guessing that’s you) is frequently watching a slightly different game than baseball's unwashed. Click for more... Why Bobby Parnell isn’t a starting pitcherLast night, Bobby Parnell made his first major league start for the New York Mets against the San Diego Padres. A young, tall, hard-tossing righty who came up the minor league track as a starter before moving to the pen in the majors last year, Parnell got the nod while starting in place of an injured Jon Niese. Here was his line for the night: 2 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K Not pretty, especially since Parnell threw 68 pitches. The Mets claimed that they were pretty desperate for starting pitching given that three of their regular rotation guys (John Maine, Fernando Nieve, and Niese) are currently on the disabled list, and that they were going to see if Parnell had what it takes to be a major league starting pitcher. The problem is that Parnell hasn't shown enough in the major leagues to have deserved a start. Full disclosure: I'm a Mets fan who has watched nearly every game of the season (you can send Advil, alcohol, and a "So Sorry" wreath to my house anytime). While Parnell has put up some respectable numbers, they are, for the most part, superficial. After last night's start, Parnell has a respectable 3.94 ERA while striking out 7.31 batters per nine innings. However, his peripherals leave a lot to be desired. He's walked 27 batters in 48 innings (along with three hit by pitches). His FIP of 3.74 looks nice, but as Shawn Hoffman reminded us this past week, it is much better to look at xFIP, readily available here at The Hardball Times, because homerun rates tend to stabilize. Parnell has a 4.85 xFIP on the season thanks in part to giving up just two dingers on the year. He also has left 74.8% of runners on base, exponentially helping keep his ERA down. I'm guessing ZiPS is aware of this, because they have him on pace for a 5.06 ERA for the rest of the season, even though his BABIP (.355) would suggest he's been relatively unlucky. Parnell's minor league career indicated he could be a starting pitcher (92 career starts), but he never had all that much success on the farm. His best year in Double-A was last season, where he had a 4.30 ERA. However, neither his 4.68 FIP nor his tRA+ of 90 were all that impressive for a 23 year-old. On a more nuanced level, Parnell has clearly had problems with control. He repeatedly gets behind in the count, making his HR/FB rate of 3.4% all the more impressive. Fangraphs also has him throwing 79.5% fastballs and 16.5% sliders, and it is extremely hard to be an effective starting pitcher when you basically throw just two pitches. And when you are wild as well, it makes for a terrible combo. However, I by no means do I think Parnell is a bad pitcher. Back in June, he told ESPN the following: "I'm still working on controlling my changeup and making my slider more consistent...but everything is about staying ahead of hitters and getting in good counts, so as long as I do that, I think I'll be fine." Unfortunately, he hasn't done either thus far, throwing his changeup 2.9% of the time and walking too many batters. However, his fastball has reached 100 MPH this year (according to the gun at Fenway) and his slider has been filthy. His stuff is great, and for a 24 year-old reliever who throws hard command is usually an issue. If he can work on throwing strikes and his off-speed stuff more effectively he can have a nice career as a reliever in the big leagues. But he just doesn't seem to have the stuff to be a successful starting pitcher, and the Mets should really know better. Why should I care about Alex Rios?A Google search for "Alex Rios waivers" results in over 65,000 hits overall. Switch over to Google News and you get 680. Why? Why is the media and the blogosphere covering this story like he's the second coming of Lou Gehrig? With the amount of press it's getting one can only conclude that (A) Alex Rios is the second coming of Lou Gehrig, or (B) Alex Rios is the first player ever to be claimed on waivers and this is actual news. Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors has had a Halladay-esque thread on the subject today, with another one up tonight by Mike Axisa, of River Ave. Blues fame, for reader discussion. People won't stop writing about Alex Rios (I had to be fair there and include friend-of-THT Jason from IIATMS). I sincerely hope he's either traded or revoked by the Blue Jays today, just so we can stop reading about it. The White Sox, run by GM Kenny Williams, are rumored to have claimed Rios. Williams has long drawn the ire of of sabermetricians for his sometimes-curious moves, but I have to agree with him here: Click for more... Saturday, August 08, 2009Midseason trade reviewFor those who pre-purchased the 2010 THT Annual, there is a new Batted Ball Report available. This week's edition takes a special batted ball look at the plethora of midseason trades. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||