November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Introducing Visual Baseball (1)
HR/FB Park Factors (10) Why Baseball Needs a Visual Facelift (5) Building a Retrosheet database, the short form (4) Is peak at age 29? (7) 
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Sunday, August 16, 2009One sport that has the greatest-ever debate sewn up ...How many column inches each year are dedicated to analysing who the greatest baseball player is? Thousands. Flick through any recent Hardball Times Annual and I guarantee that you'll see at least two articles on the issue. Peruse this site and no doubt you'll find many more. The problem is that cross era comparisons are almost impossible. And it isn't only baseball that suffers this issue. Think of today's greats: Is Tiger better than the Golden Bear? Is R-Fed better than Laver? However, there is one sport that has it licked — sprinting. Earlier this evening Usain Bolt ran the 100m in 9.58s obliterating the world record by 0.11s. He's taken two-tenths of the world mark in the space of a year. Before he came along it took twenty years for the record to fall by two-tenths. Bolt's new record is the biggest fall in the 100m world record since electronic timing began in the 1960s. At least one sport doesn't need to have the greatest-ever debate. As for folks writing on this site about Bonds vs. Ruth, let the speculation continue ... The Rangers win the Teixeira tradeAs a Braves fan I was deeply concerned when among the cadre of prospects traded to bring Mark Teixeira to Turner Field was Neftali Feliz. At the time Feliz was a 19 year old flame thrower with a toasty fastball but suspect command. However, he had that whiff of something special about him. And although Salty was the centerpiece of the trade many Braves fans feared that losing Feliz was a longer term blow to the organisation. Last night against the Red Sox I had a chance to see Feliz in action for the first time. Suffice to say he looks like he knows what he's doing. His K/9 is over 16 and his ERA is a lowly 1.04. Okay, we're in the land of small sample size — the guy has only hurled 8 innings. On early evidence he throws hard, has a couple of pitches and has good command. Here is what he has thrown so far (speed in parentheses): FB 72.7% (98.1 mph) CB 17.2% (81.4mph) CU 10.1%(88.9mph) When he was in the minors he got by on his fastball — his curve and change were so-so pitches. In his recent dominance against the Sox his curve looked like it was close to a plus pitch although the change still needs a little work. If he can master the change there is no reason why Feliz can't be a number 1 or 2 starter. Watch this space. When players delve into advanced baseball statsFor decades fans have grasped the need for advanced analysis of the numbers behind baseball in hopes of better understanding the game. Now, there are three young pitchers who have come out and said that they use saber-esque stats in analyzing baseball, and sometimes their own game: Brian Bannister, Ross Ohlendorf, and Max Scherzer. Their similar backgrounds are intriguing (all close-aged, right-handed starting pitchers with college educations), as is the way in which they go about their analysis. However, another interesting theme is how the media has gone about reporting and portraying these players. Brian Bannister has to be the leader of the group thus far. He made friends around the sabermetric community when he said last week that, "If Bill James had a 90-mph fastball, he'd be me...I think people universally agree -- in the sabermetric community and the fan community and in the media community -- that sabermetrics are effective at identifying successful baseball players and ways to win this game." That's a pretty amazing, and downright gutsy statement from a baseball player considering the atmosphere of clubhouses. While advanced analysis has permeated into front offices, there doesn't seem to be much talk of WAR or wOBA around the dugout water coolers. Bannister, the son of former major leaguer Floyd Bannister, attended the University of Southern California and also runs a photography studio in Phoenix. He claims he's been successful in using advanced stats to improve his game, including getting more grounders; the numbers verify his claims, as his GB% has gone from 37.5% last year to 51% this year. However, it's been interesting to see how the media has portrayed his number-loving compared to the people who have really put the work behind the scenes (e.g. some of the staff here, including the great Colin Wyers and Dave Studeman). Scott Lauber of the Courier Post Online did a piece on Bannister's use of xFIP, and the exaggeration involved in his following statement is too much: Bannister, 7-8 with a 3.97 ERA in 21 starts for the Royals, conceded his favorite statistic is "really technical," and the formula for computing xFIP is so complex that it seemingly requires Einstein-like knowledge of higher mathematics. Einstein-like knowledge of higher mathematics? Really? Here's the formula for xFIP: ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP. While it may be more complex than other traditional stats, one does not need any higher math degree to figure out how it works. But Lauber isn't alone. Bob Dutton at KansasCity.com also reported on Bannister and again thought his understanding of xFIP made him a genius: “I think the ultimate stat for a pitcher is xFIP,” Bannister said before pausing and offering a wry grin. “I know that’s getting really technical. It’s fielder independent pitching adjusted for your home-run rate back to the league average..." He’s right. It is technical...It could be that xFIP was what Matt Damon scratched out on the blackboard in “Good Will Hunting.” While a hyperbole in written media isn't exactly a rarity, it certainly is ironic considering the baseball media's portrayal of the inventors of these numbers as geeks in their mom's basements. This can be seen in an article Dutton wrote just a few days ago when he channelled Murray Chass by calling xFIP and BABIP, "new-age baseball jargon." He wasn't saying it in a demeaning fashion (I don't think), but the subconscious framework was laid down; any non-traditional stat is weird. Ross Ohlendorf has been getting similar treatment ever since Tim Kurkjian's piece on him. Ohlendorf, who is certainly an extremely bright guy (Princeton grad who knows his math), put together a model of determining the value of draft picks for his thesis in college. And while I'm sure the paper is certainly interesting, Kurkjian goes a little overboard when he says that, "The 126-page thesis is brilliantly written and so complex, only a mathematician would be able to completely comprehend its meaning." I certainly hope (and believe) that that's not true. If only a mathematician could understand it, something has to be wrong. Ohlendorf's study shouldn't have involved too much calculus or string theory. But moreover, your average fan is doing stuff like this all the time. In fact, Sky Andrecheck at Baseball Analysts did a very similar study a few months ago, as has The Hardball Times' very own Victor Wang. While their work is fantastic, you don't have to be Will Hunting to understand it, which is certainly a good thing; overly complex work isn't good. Finally, and briefly, is Max Scherzer. Scherzer, who conducted a great Q&A last year with Eric Seidman over at Baseball Prospectus, recently said that he "values the pitching statistics that take fielding out of the equation and recently has become particularly interested in a stat called tERA, which assigns values to every batted ball based on trajectory, velocity and location." That, my friends, is simply awesome. Although the tone of this article may have seemed a little critical of the media, I have to say that there is nothing better than hearing MLB players talk about the stats we use and love. While it may be funny to imagine Scherzer or Bannister logging into Fangraphs or The Hardball Times, the truth is that it is happening, and while the media may still be slow to embrace advanced analysis, players entering the picture will definitely speed up the process. So when we hear about Bannister pouring over his ground ball numbers, or Stanford grad/Cubs outfielder/former Stats Inc. intern Sam Fuld talking about economics, let's give a hand to the guys and girls behind the scenes who are invaluable at crunching the numbers. They are making waves, one player at a time. Your other random fact of the dayThe Cubs currently haven't won a series against a team with a winning record since early May. (Based on current record, not record at the time of the series). Over the season, they have a .660 record when playing teams with a losing record, but only .403 versus teams .500 or better. Well, then again all teams should do worse against better teams. How does Chicago's .457 gap (.660 minus .403) compare to the rest of the NL? 1. CHC .257 2. DCN .211 3. FLO .185 4. PHI .139 5. CIN .125 6. HOU .125 NL AVERAGE .123 7. STL .122 8. ARI .118 9. LAD .111 10. MIL .104 11. COL .096 12. SDP .095 13. NYM .074 14. PIT .062 15. SFG .058 16. ATL .041 In the previous 32 seasons, 34 teams have had a split of .257 or worse. The biggest gap belonged to the 1994 Indians (.333 against winning teams, .701 against lousy ones). Your random fact of the dayTeam records, beginning with the Fourth of July: WAS 19-20 (.487) LAD 18-19 (.486) Keep in mind, LA still has the NL's best record and Washington is still worst in the NL. This has no point, but I found that info rather fun. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||