November 22, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
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Building a Retrosheet database, the short form (3) HR/FB Park Factors (5) Is peak at age 29? (7) On whiffing (4) 
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Wednesday, August 19, 2009Ecstatic Truth Pitchf/x: Daniel Bard’s sliderNote to Reader: The following was ghostwritten by German filmmaker and sometime assassin's target Werner Herzog. Mr. Herzog explains the term "ecstatic truth" here. The Informed Reader is almost definitely aware that, beyond noting the movement and velocity of a pitcher's stuff, scouts will also sometimes take note of opposing batters' reactions to certain pitches as another means of evaluating a pitcher's arsenal. It wouldn't have taken a very experienced scout to adjudge the quality of the 0-2 slidepiece that Mr. Daniel Bard threw to Mr. Randy Ruiz in the bottom of the 8th inning of last night's (Wednesday night's) match-up between Toronto and Boston. The pitch, clocked at 88 MPH on the NESN radar gun, appeared for all intents and purposes to be headed plateward, innocent as anything, until such time when, say about 15 feet from home plate, it (i.e. the ball), as if caught suddenly in a strong Northerly, proceeded to veer strongly to the left (from the TV audience's perspective) and very much away from Ruiz. Click for more... Cespedes, De La Cruz, and pray for a better rhymeI've written a couple times in this space about Felix Cespedes, a pitcher for the DSL Phillies. Based on his recent performances, I think he could outduel Patrick Schuster and Austin Wood simultaneously. Cespedes's real competition is coming from his own teammate, Daniel De La Cruz. Yesterday, De La Cruz threw a no-hitter, walking none and striking out an even dozen. The only baserunner came as a result of a fielding error. On the next play, De La Cruz started a double play to clear the bags again. All told, he faced the minimum 27 batters in nine innings. The DSL isn't a very offense-friendly environment, but this is getting ridiculous. The most plausible theory I can come up with is that the Phillies have developed some kind of giant wind machine that prevents batted balls from traveling more than 110 feet. That doesn't explain the strikeouts, but the only other workable scenario I've got involves aliens. In any event, by the time Jamie Moyer retires, the Phillies may well have a couple of Dominican youngsters more than ready to step in to the rotation. What to do with StrasburgThe ink has just dried from his record breaking deal and fans are already clamoring for Strasburg's arrival in Washington. The Nationals' assistant general manager, Mike Rizzo, has already stated that Strasburg likely will not pitch the remainder of the 2009 season and instead will begin his conditioning and strength regimen. This is a very smart move as Strasburg has not pitched since May 29. Washington has a significant amount of money invested in Strasburg (over $15 million) so the Nats must be very cautious in his development. Strasburg threw 109 innings at San Diego State this season and 97.1 the year before that. His college head coach, Tony Gwynn, limited his pitch counts to prevent future harm. The closest pitching prospect we have seen to Strasburg recently was Mark Prior. Prior is the poster boy for how to not handle young pitchers. Prior threw 138 and 129 innings during his final two seasons at USC. He began his career in Double-A and quickly moved up to Triple-A, throwing a combined 51 innings before getting called up to the major leagues and inserted into the rotation. As a 21-year old rookie, Prior started 19 games for Chicago and threw 116.2 innings in the major leagues (167.2 innings overall). In seven of his 19 starts he threw 110 or more pitches. The following season Prior endured even more abuse. He tossed 211.1 innings and averaged over 113 pitchers in 30 starts. It was soon after this that he began having shoulder and arm problems that would plague him the rest of his career. It would be wise for Washington to start Strasburg in the minors next season while closely monitoring his pitch counts. If he is deemed ready a couple months into the season he should be called up, but once again, his pitch counts and innings should be limited. There have been numerous studies linking high work totals to injuries in young pitchers, and the Nationals should be wary of the face of their franchise Useless info on 100-win teams without 20-win pitchersHere's some random trivia I learned when figuring yesterday's useless THT Live post. Of the 95 different 20-win teams in history, exactly 20 lacked a 20-game winner. Half of them have been since the '94 strike. The first handful were the 1915 Red Sox, 1931 Cardinals, 1941 Yankees, 1942 Dodgers, and 1967 Cardinals. That was it until the Big Red Machine. 1941 Yankees get extra credit for being the first 100-win team without a 19, 18, 17, or 16 game winners. The 2004 Yanks are the only one without a 15-game winner. They peaked with a pair of 14-game winners. Most wins by a team without a 20-game winner is a tie at 108, by the 1986 Mets and 1975 Reds. Neither had a 19-game winner either. The Reds topped out at 15 wins per pitcher. Proving it was no fluke the 1976 Reds also peaked with 15 wins per pitcher, despite winning 102 games. Long as I'm here, I'll give the complete list of 20 teams, from most to fewest team wins. I'll include both team wins and most wins by an individual pitcher in parathesis: 1975 Reds (108, 15) 1986 Mets (108, 18) 2004 Cards (105, 16) 1942 Dodgers (104, 19) 1984 Tigers (104, 19) 2002 Yankees (103, 19) 1999 Braves (103, 19) 1976 Reds (102, 15) 1998 Astros (102, 19) 2004 Yankees (101, 14) 1941 Yankees (101, 15) 1967 Cardinals (101, 16) 2002 Braves (101, 18) 1931 Cardsinals (101, 19) 1915 Red Sox (101, 19) 1977 Yankees (100, 16) 1995 Indians (100, 16) 2003 Giants (100, 17) 2008 Angels (100, 17) 1999 D-backs (100, 17) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||