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Wednesday, September 09, 2009New York Mets top prospectsAs a baseball fan and analyst, I consider my knowledge of the minor leagues to be important. However, as a Mets fan, I consider my knowledge of their minor league system to be vital. This is why I have gone ahead and drawn up my list of the Top 40 prospects in the Mets farm system. Warning: I am not a scout; rather, I'm just a college kid with a love of minor league baseball, a good amount of knowledge about the Mets farm system, and a lot of time on my hands. Please don't take this as a reflection of what anyone else but myself feels is the appropriate ranking of the Mets prospects. My criteria: some combination of written scouting reports, performance, evaluations from prospects gurus (e.g. John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein, etc.), and position scarcity (yes, if I am rating between a shortstop and first baseman with similar numbers, the shortstop will get an edge; isn't this the whole point of the defensive spectrum anyway?). So, without further ado: 1. OF Fernando Martinez, Triple-A/MLB He didn't fair all too well in the majors, but not many 20 year-olds do. His AAA numbers were solid, as he displayed his power with a .250 ISO. His centerfield defense was shaky, although he was solid in left field (sample size warning). He'll probably start 2010 in Triple-A as he recovers from knee surgery, but could be a breakout player by 2011. 2. 1B/RF Ike Davis, High-A/Double-A What a year for this guy. The tall lefty was a first-round pick for the Mets out of Arizona State in last year's draft. He got off to a miserable pro start in Low-A Brooklyn in 2008, hitting just .256/.326/.326 in 239 plate appearances. But after leading the league in total bases in St. Lucie (with a .387 wOBA) to start the season, Davis, who just turned 22 years-old in March, went on an absolute tear for Double-A Binghamton, hitting .309/.386/.565 in fifty-five games. Primarily a first baseman, Davis spent the end of the season playing some right field, and has continued playing there for Team USA. It's scary to think that out of a first base class in the 2008 Draft that included the likes of Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, David Cooper, and Allan Dykstra, Davis has been the biggest performer to date. Davis's biggest hurdle in 2010 will be trying to garner more success against lefties. However, after hitting terribly against them in St. Lucie, he managed to post an .807 OPS against southpaws in Binghamton, so he could be on his way. 3. SP Jenrry Mejia, High-A/Double-A What's not to like about this kid? At 19 years-old, Mejia posted a 1.97 ERA in 50.1 High-A innings. Bumped up to Double-A Binghamton, his superficial numbers look weak (0-5, 4.47 ERA), but his peripherals are still solid. He's suffering from a .350 BABIP thanks in part to a mediocre defense; however, he has a 3.49 FIP and has struck out 47 batters in just 44.1 innings. His walks have increased a tick, but with his age and talent, Mejia could find his way into some Top 50 (or higher) prospect lists this year. 4. SS Wilmer Flores, A Oh, Wilmer. Mets fans went wild last year when the 16 year-old Venezuelan (who looks about 12) hit .310/.352/.490 for Rookie Kingsport. This year, Flores jumped up to Savannah at the A level and held his own, batting .264/.305/.332. As a 17 year-old in the Sally, that's not that bad. However, scouts say he won't stick at shortstop and that he will have to move to another position (most likely third base). Still, the performance is quite impressive given his age. 5. SP Jon Niese, Triple-A/MLB The lefty owns a low-90's fastball and big breaking curveball that give him the chance to be a successful major league pitcher, as he posted a tRA of 3.77 and a FIP of 3.24 in 25.2 MLB innings. Pitching in Triple-A for most of the year, Niese posted a 3.38 FIP for Buffalo and simply dominated minor league hitters before getting his call up to the majors. Niese's 2009 ended in a way typical of the Mets 2009 season, as he injured his hamstring while covering first base (then proceeded to tear it while throwing a warm up pitch and surrounded by the Mets' training staff). If he recovers successfully, he will most likely find his way as the Mets fourth or fifth starter next year. 6. SP Brad Holt, High-A/Double-A Taken in the first supplemental round in the 2008 draft, Holt, a 6'4 righty out of UNC-Wilimgton, quickly impressed in his pro debut. After posting a 2.62 FIP for Brooklyn last year, Holt struck out 54 batters in 43.1 innings for St.Lucie in 2009 before being called up to Binghamton. However, his run of great pitching ended there. He only struck out 45 in 58 innings and walked 23 while giving up nine homers, leading to a 5.01 FIP. Holt is a power pitcher who has to rely on his plus fastball, so when he's not striking out guys at a good enough rate it could lead to problems. However, he was hampered by an ankle injury, so we'll see if he can bounce back in Binghamton in 2010. Click for more... Heh.There will be a time in the future where fans of AL teams can't pick on their National League brethren. Luckily, that time hasn't come yet: "We know going in that we need to win 90-something games," [Tampa Bay Rays owner Stuart] Sternberg said. "Is it 92 or is it 98? Eighty-nine, 88 don't get it done in our division. It gets in done in a lot of other places. ... Eighty-nine [wins] in our division translates into 93 in the Central and 147 in the National League. I think the use of "lol" would be appropriate here. (h/t: Jason) All hail . . . . Ed Kranepool?In honor of Derek Jeter's imminent breaking of Lou Gehrig's franchise record for most hits, LoHud Yankee blog presented a list of each franchise career hit leader. In a thread on it over at BTF, poster AG#1Fan noted the Mets had a comically low career leader for a franchise that had been around for nearly a half-century: 1,418 by Ed Kranepool. So I wonder, what is the hit leader for each franchise since 1962, and how does Kranepool stack up? Here they are in order from most-to-least, broken up into fives to make it easier to read. I'll include post-1962 expansion franchises, but put them in italics: BOX 3,419 Carl Yastrzmski CIN 3,358 Pete Rose BAL 3,184 Cal Ripken Jr. KCR 3,154 George Brett MIL 3,142 Robin Yount SDP 3,141 Tony Gwynn HOU 3,060 Craig Biggio NYY 2,718 Derek Jeter STL 2,713 Lou Brock ATL 2,390 Chipper Jones CHC 2,385 Ryne Sandberg DET 2,369 Lou Whitaker LAA 2,368 Garret Anderson MIN 2,304 Kirby Puckett SEA 2,247 Edgar Martinez PHI 2,234 Mike Schmidt PIT 2,232 Willie Stargell CWS 2,136 Frank Thomas COL 2,110 Todd Helton LAD 1,977 Willie Davis SFG 1,951 Barry Bonds OAK 1,882 Bert Campaneris TEX 1,734 Ivan Rodriquez DCN 1,694 Tim Wallach CLE 1,616 Omar Vizquel TOR 1,583 Tony Fernandez NYM 1,418 Ed Kranepool ARI 1,337 Luis Gonzalez FLA 1,273 Luis Castillo TBR 1,270 Carl Crawford So yeah, the Mets career leader is as bad as it looks and isn't just some era bias issue. I never would've guessed Omar Vizquel would score so high. He's actually Cleveland's hit leader since 1941. (Push it back to 1940 and Lou Boudreau pulls ahead). Who has the best stuff?Baseball Analysts has a thought-provoking article by Jeremy Greenhouse on using PITCHf/x to measure which pitchers have the best stuff. His results are interesting; I'm eager to peruse the full list in the spreadsheet he links at the end of the article as well as wondering if/how his methodology could be improved. Interview onlineThis weekend, I took part in an e-mail interview conducted by Bill "Crashburn Alley" Baer. It went on for two parts, both of which are now online. The second part contains a mini-excerpt from my new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008. The blurb might be especially interesting to any fans of the White Sox, A's, and Cards because it's in response to a question about Dave Duncan, Tony LaRussa's longtime pitching coach. Hope you enjoy. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||