November 20, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Sportswriters don’t vote for Cy Young based on popular opinion; baseball universe explodes (14)
Where could Omar Vizquel and Nick Johnson end up? (6) You’re not Alou (8) Is peak at age 29? (6) A defensive shift (3) 
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Saturday, October 31, 2009Liveblog World Series Game 3Since the folks at the Book blog don't seem to be around tonight, we're gonna try the same liveblog thing here tonight. Bear with me if there are a few hiccups as we start. Top minor league defensive players of 2009Sean Smith has been kind enough to provide The Hardball Times with his Total Zone data for all minor league players in 2009 (for more information check minorleaguesplits.com). The Total Zone numbers are produced using play-by-play data and the results are similar to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) or the plus/minus system. A more detailed explanation of Total Zone can be found at baseball-reference. Below you will find a listing of the top rated defensive players of 2009 at each position based on the amount of runs above average they saved (minimum of 100 total chances). Click for more... Should Jeter have bunted?It's a popular topic. Let's ignore the decision to bunt with two strikes - even Jeter admits that was a mistake - and look at the decision to start the PA bunting. So what's the most salient fact about Derek Jeter bunting? He reaches base safely a third of the time when he lays down a bunt fair. This shouldn't surprise anyone - Jeter is a gifted singles hitter who is also perenially one of the league leaders in reaching base on an error. So let's look at run expectancy. As Bee notes: According to run expectation, with runners on first and second and no out, a team is expected to approximately 1.5 runs in an inning. When there are runners on second and third with one out, the run expectation actually goes down to 1.4. Yes. But - that ignores the possibility of Jeter reaching safely. Let's simplify this and look at the odds of Jeter reaching base and the runner at second holding up at third (there is of course the odds of the runner at second scoring and of being thrown out, among other things): (1.41-1.48)*2/3+(2.28-1.48)*1/3 = 0.22 So - and again, we are drastically oversimplifying here - the average run expectancy of a bunt there was .22 runs. For the basis of comparison, over the past three seasons, Jeter has averaged about .15 runs per plate appearance. Again, this is a drastically oversimplified analysis (MGL is the crown prince of not simplifying bunt analysis, if you're interested in such things). But it's quite frankly silly to claim the Jeter bunt was a bad idea without looking at the odds of him bunting for a hit (or reaching on an error). That goes double for anyone quoting his batting average with RISP. I advise anyone who cares about this sort of thing to go read The Book. Friday, October 30, 2009Mr. NovemberThis will be the second time the World Series stretches into November. I could be wrong if for some reason an early World Series started that late, but I was thinking only in the current 3 round playoff format could a series go this long. The latest dates for a final world series game: 11/04/2001 Diamondbacks over Yankees 10/29/2008 Phillies over Rays ( game started 10/27) 10/28/1995 Braves over Phillies 10/28/2007 Red Sox over Rockies 10/28/1981 Dodgers over Yankees This series will last until at the very least 11/02/2009, and possibly to 11/05/2009, so we may see a new contender for the title of Mr. November. Derek Jeter seems to get consideration for that honor, but his big heroics came in game 4 of the 2001 series on 10/31. In the three October games he was 2 for 11. The true Mr. November would have to be Steve Finley (5 for 9), Mark Grace (3 for 7), or Tony Womack (6-17) among the hitters, but Randy Johnson has to take the overall award, with 2 wins (8.1 innings, 8 strikeouts, 2 runs allowed). That is, unless somebody tops his performance this year. Thursday, October 29, 2009Cliff Lee turns the Yankees into the PadresWith the Yankees strong favorites to win the world series, 60% before last night's game according to Baseball Prospectus, the Phillies needed a strong start to the series to get them on the right track. And boy did they get that from Cliff Lee tonight. Against the best offense in baseball, he pitched nine innings and allowed just six hits and one run. He also struck out ten batters, while walking zero. Let's take a look at how he was able to locate his pitches:  (Note: the previous chart was mislabeled, so I fixed it) 121 pitches 66% strikes 13% swinging strikes 27% grounders/BIP He was pounded the strike zone with all of his pitches and was able to get a bunch of swings and misses. Only 27% of his balls in play were on the ground; however 20% of the balls in the air were pop ups and he was able to get a bunch of shallow fly balls as well. All in all, an amazingly impressive start from Cliff Lee against a Yankees offense that really was quite amazing all year. After the win, the Phillies' now have a 60% chance of winning it all. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||