February 10, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009Randy Wolf and evolutionSeason Age WAR tRA 2002 26 3.5 4.30 2003 27 2.4 5.18 2004 28 1.6 5.71 2005 29 0.5 6.18 2006 30 -0.3 6.97 2007 31 1.7 4.23 2008 32 2.0 4.76 2009 33 3.0 4.27 What happened here that created this inverted bell-curve (if our x-axis was time and our y-axis was WAR)? Keep in mind 2002 was Wolf's fourth year in baseball. Here are his earlier FIPs: 1999: 5.14 2000: 4.48 2001: 3.50 So, Wolf came up to the big leagues and got off to an okay start in his first two years. In his next two years, he then established himself as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. But then in 2003, when he should be reaching somewhat of a peak, he begins to regress pretty rapidly. By the age of 29 he's barely holding on to a major league job. It looks as if Wolf got off to a hot start, and hitters simply began to catch up to him, which happens with all pitchers. But the tipping point was in July of 2005, when Wolf had Tommy John Surgery. His comeback in 2006 marked the bottom of that inverted bell curve, as he had by far his worst season in the majors. Coupled with Wolf's comeback from injury was the opening of Citizens Bank Park in 2004. Wolf's HR/FB% from 2004-06 were 10.5%, 13.6%, and 16.7%. He's now a different pitcher. His injury/surgery/time off wouldn't allowed him to be the same pitcher he was pre-2005. In his early days, he had a higher velocity fastball and threw it by hitters. Now, he uses plus secondary stuff to get hitters off-balance. In 2003 and 2004, he used his slider just 3.1% of the time. He threw it 13.2% last year, 13.9% this year. His K/9 this year is the second-lowest of his career, but so is his BB/9. Billy Beane recently told us, "The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian." Just like Darwin realized that the birds of the Galapagos were two different species of Finches (and not different birds altogether), Randy Wolf hasn't become a "different" pitcher. He's still Randy Wolf. He's just adapted. Tigers plan to bring Scott Sizemore to bigsDave Dombrowski seems prepared to move forward with Scott Sizemore as the new starting second baseman. Click for more... Pitcher hittingJust a reminder, it's important. A significant amount of a pitcher's value is tied to his ability to hit, which we have a pretty good idea how to measure. Yet for some reason we leave hitting production out of our pitcher valuations. So I'll add StatCorner's pitching runs above average, hitting runs above average using a wOBA around .180 as average, and I might as well include the +/- fielding runs above average to come up with one total value. Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and Carlos Zambrano can hit. Tommy Hanson has two hits in 46 plate appearances. Here are the notable names I came up with.
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