February 10, 2012
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009John Abbamondi, assistant GM of the Cardinals, on quantitative analysis in the front officeAs a Cardinals fan, and an avid user of Pitch f/x data, I was absolutely thrilled to read this: If a club is weighing whether to acquire a particular pitcher, for example, one of the first questions is whether he's likely to stay healthy. "Of course we'll lean heavily on medical-staff opinion, but we also want to know what our scouts think of his pitching mechanics," Abbamondi says. "Do they see any red flags that might lead to injury? Meanwhile, the stats guy may look at the track record of other pitchers who have thrown this many innings by this age." The trick is to blend qualitative and quantitative analysis. The full article is a good read. It's basically an interview with John Abbamondi, in which he detailes his rise to becoming an assistant GM and the way he views the relative importance of scouting and statistics in running a successful ball club. The author mentions that he is one of "a new wave of baseball executives bringing fresh perspective to the game." If that wave brings with it increased usage of stuff like Pitch f/x, that can only be a good thing for teams. Hat tip, Tango. The feeling of RiveraFor over a decade, Yankees fans have been lucky enough to watch the seemingly-invincible Mariano Rivera close out games. The emotional difference between having Rivera in the game and even somebody as good as Joe Nathan, or Jon Papelbon, or Trevor Hoffman in the game is incredible. Rebecca at Purist Bleeds Pinstripes put this feeling into words as she watched Rivera hold on in game three of the divisional series yesterday. It's an interesting look into what a Yankee fan feels when the Hammer of G-d comes in to pitch. (hat tip: Jason) Phun Phillie PhactsActually, this should probably be called "Random Phillie Phacts," but then I couldn't get the stupid "Ph" thing in the front of all three words. . . . Well, the Phillies are not only defending World Series champs, but doing pretty good for themselves so far this postseason. I found out some interesting (to me anyway) facts about the 2009 Phils. If you're curious: The team's starting eight position players accounted for 79.7% of the franchise's plate appearances in 2009. That is the most by any team in the 21st century. It's the most by any club since the 1989 Cardinals, who had 80.5% go to their main eight. The last time Philadelphia's starting eight accounted for such a large percentage of the team's PA was in 1950 (when they won the pennant - make of that what you will). Before that, you have to go back to 1932. Before then, 1908. They're up-the-middle starters accounted for 2,485 PA, third most in franchise history, behind 1974 and 2007. Most impressive of all is their starting infielders, who accumulated 2,740 PA - the second most in National League history. First place was the 1963 Cards at 2,777. Actually, St. Louis's rank is exceptional. Current teams have an advantage because high offense eras allow for more PA overall, and we currently are in a high offense era. Along those lines, the most PA by an infield in MLB history happened just a few years ago: the 2005 Rangers. Conversely, 1963 was a pretty dang low scoring era in MLB, yet the St. Louis Cards still top them all. Combined, Bill White, Ken Boyer, Dick Groat, and Julian Javier started 636 games in a 162-game schedule. Not bad. (Annoying note/nitpick: I figured all this out for 1876-2008 teams before B-ref updated to its current look/format. With the current look player and team PA is listed on the team main page, but it wasn't like that before. Thus while I'm using the actual PA for the 2009 Phillies, I'm using AB+BB+HB+SF+SH for all previous years. It works out about the same, but since it's a little off, I thought I should mention it). Jeff Mathis, Clutch GodI wrote about this earlier in the year, but no one should be surprised that Jeff Mathis delivered the Angels' big hit last night. This year, he batted .344 in 46 High Leverage plate appearances vs. .144 in 119 Low Leverage plate appearances. That's a difference of 200 points. Think that's just a fluke? Well, yeah, you're right. He batted only .125 in High Leverage plate appearances last year. It's just one of those oddities that makes baseball so much fun. Monday, October 19, 20092010 impact rookies: Desmond JenningsBeginning today I will be looking at various prospects who may be counted on to contribute in the major leagues next season. First on my list is Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings. Jennings will turn 23 at the end of the month and is a phenomenal athlete. He originally signed a letter of intent to play football at the University of Alabama before being selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft. Jennings has plenty of speed to burn and has an 82 percent stolen base success rate over his minor league career. Jennings projects as a plus defender in center field with good range and an above-average arm. He has shown the ability to hit for average (.305 lifetime average) and with his plate discipline (11.13 career walk percentage) he could develop into a productive leadoff hitter. Jennings makes consistent solid contact and has continually cut down his strikeout numbers. This season he walked as many times as he struck out (67) between Double-A and Triple-A. He possesses an incredibly quick bat although this doesn't show in his power numbers. In 2009 however, Jennings posted a career best .169 ISO and belted 31 doubles, 10 triples, and 11 home runs all of which were career highs for him. The knock on Jennings is that he is injury prone. In 2007 he had season ending knee surgery in August. Then in 2008 he was limited to just 24 games after aggravating his back and then undergoing shoulder surgery that would once again cost him the season. His inability to stay healthy had caused his stock to slide, but he rebounded with a strong, and perhaps more importantly, healthy 2009 campaign. It will be interesting to see what Tampa Bay does this off-season. B.J. Upton is coming off a terrible year and is eligible for arbitration this season. Carl Crawford is also heading into the final year of his deal. The Rays could be looking to move one or both to free up salary and this would cut a clear path for Jennings to start. If Tampa is seriously considering moving either player, and reports indicate that they are, then they must believe that Desmond Jennings is ready to start in 2010. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||