February 10, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Saturday, October 31, 2009Liveblog World Series Game 3Since the folks at the Book blog don't seem to be around tonight, we're gonna try the same liveblog thing here tonight. Bear with me if there are a few hiccups as we start. Top minor league defensive players of 2009Sean Smith has been kind enough to provide The Hardball Times with his Total Zone data for all minor league players in 2009 (for more information check minorleaguesplits.com). The Total Zone numbers are produced using play-by-play data and the results are similar to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) or the plus/minus system. A more detailed explanation of Total Zone can be found at baseball-reference. Below you will find a listing of the top rated defensive players of 2009 at each position based on the amount of runs above average they saved (minimum of 100 total chances). Click for more... Should Jeter have bunted?It's a popular topic. Let's ignore the decision to bunt with two strikes - even Jeter admits that was a mistake - and look at the decision to start the PA bunting. So what's the most salient fact about Derek Jeter bunting? He reaches base safely a third of the time when he lays down a bunt fair. This shouldn't surprise anyone - Jeter is a gifted singles hitter who is also perenially one of the league leaders in reaching base on an error. So let's look at run expectancy. As Bee notes: According to run expectation, with runners on first and second and no out, a team is expected to approximately 1.5 runs in an inning. When there are runners on second and third with one out, the run expectation actually goes down to 1.4. Yes. But - that ignores the possibility of Jeter reaching safely. Let's simplify this and look at the odds of Jeter reaching base and the runner at second holding up at third (there is of course the odds of the runner at second scoring and of being thrown out, among other things): (1.41-1.48)*2/3+(2.28-1.48)*1/3 = 0.22 So - and again, we are drastically oversimplifying here - the average run expectancy of a bunt there was .22 runs. For the basis of comparison, over the past three seasons, Jeter has averaged about .15 runs per plate appearance. Again, this is a drastically oversimplified analysis (MGL is the crown prince of not simplifying bunt analysis, if you're interested in such things). But it's quite frankly silly to claim the Jeter bunt was a bad idea without looking at the odds of him bunting for a hit (or reaching on an error). That goes double for anyone quoting his batting average with RISP. I advise anyone who cares about this sort of thing to go read The Book. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||