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November 2009
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Monday, November 30, 2009

Andruw Jones makes smart choice in choosing White Sox


The White Sox signed Andruw Jones to a one-year contract worth $500,000 last week. While the White Sox aren't done making moves, don't be surprised to see Jones put together over 300 at-bats.

Click for more...

Posted by Evan Brunell at 5:26pm (2) Comments

A THT Annual review


Steve Lombardi of Was Watching posted a review of the THT Annual. Steve has read and reviewed the THT Annual for several years, and he said that "this year’s edition is just as good, if not better, than the editions from the previous four years." This is the first online review of the book I've read.

We're always looking for feedback regarding the Annual—in fact, we made some changes to this year's book based on feedback from Steve and other reviewers last year. If you have a comment, such as a favorite (or least favorite) article or whether you like the stats or not, please leave it below.

Posted by Dave Studeman at 5:51am (1) Comments

Medium and short-time pitch memory


Maybe you noticed that my last article, "Medium and hort-term pitching memory," has been removed from the site. While trying to elaborate an answer to one of the comments, I discovered an error in my code that generated the results that were published.

After re-running the correct code, different conclusions came up; which I will probably summarize them in a new article.

The more statistically inclined are surely thinking "Why, were the strong correlations appearing in the article caused by a wrong code? What are the chances?"

Well, those correlations describe another phenomenon that I'm tryng to understand; if something interesting comes up I'll let you know. (That reminds me of another Italian, that five centuries ago was trying to reach India and discovered a new land—like him, I was fully convinced I was in India).

I also just wanted to make clear that while in the article I thanked Dave Studeman for peer reviewing it, his feedback was on the writing part, not on the analysis. Thus he has absolutely nothing to do with my mistake (nor he was in a position to discover it).

I apologize for the inconvenience.

Posted by Max Marchi at 1:12am (0) Comments

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Ichiro’s Speed Compared to Right Fielders


Another month, another discussion on the Hall of Fame worthiness of Ichiro Suzuki on Baseballthinkfactory. I skimmed through and didn't see much said that hasn't been said before, though this quote by Colin Wyers made me think:
Because, let's be honest - the question of if Ichiro belongs in the HoF is basically a question of how good his defense is.


The opinion's on Ichiro's greatness generally fall into these categories:
1. He gets 200 hits per year, so he's the greatest hitter ever. I don't understand the alphabet soup stats you mention.
2. Ichiro gets a lot of singles, but he's not really a great hitter. His OPS+ is OK but well below the level of greatness for a corner outfielder. His career OPS+ is the same as Ken Griffey Sr, and worse than Shawn Green's
3. He's a good, but not great hitter, but rises to the level of the game's greats when you consider his defense, throwing, baserunning, and avoiding the double play. The little things in his case really add up.

Click for more...

Posted by Sean Smith at 2:43pm (9) Comments

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Top baserunners of 2009


This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here's the basic method:

  • For all plays, we consider the lead runner only.
  • We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event - typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by:
    • The number of outs in the inning.
    • The type of event - single, double, etc. (A fielder's choice is considered an ordinary out.)
    • For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground.
    • The position of the player who fields the ball.
  • Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not - a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run.

That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009:

RUN_ID Name Runs Chances
bourm001 Michael Bourn 10.8 230
fowld001 Dexter Fowler 10.0 142
velee001 Eugenio Velez 7.6 90
figgc001 Chone Figgins 7.4 230
podss001 Scott Podsednik 7.0 169
philb001 Brandon Phillips 6.8 118
bonie001 Emilio Bonifacio 6.4 131
wrigd002 David Wright 6.3 172
sweer001 Ryan Sweeney 6.0 142
furcr001 Rafael Furcal 6.0 210
RUN_ID Name Runs Chances
morak001 Kendry Morales -4.1 123
moram002 Melvin Mora -4.1 89
posaj001 Jorge Posada -4.4 99
howar001 Ryan Howard -5.0 120
thomj002 Jim Thome -5.1 81
felip001 Pedro Feliz -5.1 153
wietm001 Matt Wieters -5.5 84
molib001 Bengie Molina -5.5 95
heltt001 Todd Helton -6.3 162
bardj001 Josh Bard -7.2 55

Your typical caveats apply - don't read too much into a one year sample. Remember that players at the extremes during any sample tend to regress to the mean as the sample increases, etc.

The full list is available here.



Posted by Colin Wyers at 3:51pm (2) Comments