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Monday, November 02, 2009So, just how good was Damon’s steal?As I'm sure you all have heard, Johnny Damon took advantage of the shift to advance an extra base on a steal of second last night. It was 2 outs in the ninth, and after a walk to Texeira, next batter A-Rod hit a walkoff double. As you can expect, Damon's steal was given a lot of credit for impacting the outcome of game. However, while it was a very heads up and exciting play, it simply didn't make that much of a difference. As Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing notes: # Advancing to third base with two outs provides a boost, but a small one, as runners will generally score from second on any hit. The win probability added of the first steal was +4%, as Damon got himself into scoring position. The win probability added of the second steal was +1.6%. The steal of third did not dramatically improve the Yankees' odds of winning. However, that fact didn't stop the steal from becoming mainstream media fodder. Yes, Damon's daring steal of second and third, after a memorable nine-pitch at-bat against Brad Lidge in the ninth inning, was as unique as it was brilliant. The bottom line was the Phillies went to sleep on the play, forgetting that third base was wide open because of the shift they had on Mark Teixeira, but it was Damon who saw the potential for how it could change the game dramatically. So while advancing on the steal didn't actually improve the Yankees odds of winning that much, Damon argues that the added pressure it put on Lidge was significant in itself. The main justification behind that is that being on third instead of second forces pitchers to thrown fewer offspeed pitches than they normally would, for fear of throwing one in the dirt. Is that claim verifiable? Well, let's check it out. Using Pitch f/x data from 2007-2009, we can see that with a runner on 3rd base, pitchers threw breaking balls 29% of the time. When there was no runner on third, pitchers threw breaking balls 25% of the time. Amazingly, we see that the opposite is true! Pitchers actually throw more offspeed pitches when their is a runner on third base. The reason for this is likely that pitchers are trying to strike out more hitters when they have a runner on third, as most contact will score a run, and the improvement in strikeout odds overrides the risk of throwing a wild pitch. For Lidge, the same pattern holds true. Over the past 3 years, with a runner on third base, he's thrown his slider 54% of the time compared to 49% of the time in all other situations. Now, it's still possible that Damon on third improved A-Rod's odds of getting a hit in that at bat; however, that would already be included in the Win Expectancy figures. So while it was a very heads up play, let's not pretend that it had much of an effect on the outcome of the game. Damon's single, and A-Rod's double were much, much more important. Liveblog World Series Game 5Once again, we'll be hosting a liveblog/chat for the World Series Game 5 tonight. I'm trying to arrange some moderators to cover for me in the early innings. It's been fun the last four games. Come join us tonight if you want to have some good sabermetric-inclined fun while watching the game. Once down 3 games to 1 in the World Series . . .The Phillies are down three games to one in the World Series right now. What does the past tell us about their future? Well, they are the 44th team to lose three of the first four games. Of the previous 43 teams, 41 played in a best-of-seven series. (The others were Boston in 1903, who won the next four games to take the Series, and the 1919 Reds, who won over the Black Sox). Of the 41 teams who dropped three of the first four: They went 18-23 in Game 5. In Game 6, the remaining 18 teams went 8-10. In Game 7, the remaining squads went 5-3. So, about one-eighth of the teams in this situation win it all. If you're curious, the last seven teams to lose three of the first four couldn't make the comeback. Philly phans, if it makes you feel better, you can say MLB is due for another comeback. The teams that came back were the 1925 Pirates, 1958 Yankees, 1968 Tigers, 1979 Pirates and 1985 Royals. For what it's worth, two of those Series had bizarre ends (1925 had horrid field conditions, and 1985 had the infamous Don Denkinger call and Cardinals meltdown). For what it's worth, the teams down three games to one who took it to Game Seven only to lose were the 1912 Giants, 1967 Red Sox and 1972 Reds. (Actually, there was a Game 8 in 1912, but I'm pretending Game Two's tie didn't happen for purpose of this). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||