November 20, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Sportswriters don’t vote for Cy Young based on popular opinion; baseball universe explodes (14)
Where could Omar Vizquel and Nick Johnson end up? (6) You’re not Alou (8) Is peak at age 29? (6) A defensive shift (3) 
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Tuesday, November 03, 2009When down 3 games to 2 in the World Series . . .Well, the Phillies staved off elimination, giving us our first World Series to reach Game Six in a half-dozen years. The question now is: what does history tell us of teams in this situation? Well, there have been 57 previous best-of-seven World Series that reached a Game Six. In the sixth contest*, the trailing has amassed an impressive record of 35-22. Not too shabby. Actually, it was achieved in a very odd manner. The first two dozen such games were split evenly 12-12 between leaders and trailers. The most recent 18 games have been likewise split down the middle, 50% each. However, from 1955 to 1975, 15 World Series reached Game Six - and the trailing team went 14-1 in those games. Only in 1959 did the Series end in the sixth contest. Weird. Anyhow, that's only half the battle. After going 35-22 in Game Six, the survivors went 17-18 in Game Seven. Overall then, teams trailing 3 games to 2 in a best of seven World Series go 17-40 in their quest for the World Championship, so odds are a bit over one-third. Since I have the list with me, here's the roll call of the comebackers (grouped into fives for readability): 1924 WAS 1925 PIT 1926 STL 1934 STL 1940 CIN 1946 STL 1952 NYY 1958 NYY 1968 DET 1973 OAK 1979 PIT 1985 KCR 1986 NYM 1997 MIN 1991 MIN 2001 ARI 2001 ANA Only the 1926 Cards and 2001 D-backs did it against the Yanks. There's a wrinkle, though. Philly has to go on the road. Of the above 17 teams, only six did it on the road. They are: the 1979 Pirates, 1968 Tigers, 1958 Yankees, 1952 Yankees, 1934 Cardinals, and 1926 Cardinals. Interestingly, half of those teams came back from 3-to-1 deficits. * Note: for purposes of this research, the tie in the 1912 World Series never happened. Thus Game Eight is considered Game Seven, and so on down the line). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||