February 10, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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Wednesday, November 11, 20092010 impact rookies: Stephen StrasburgThe number one overall pick in the 2009, Stephen Strasburg, signed for a record bonus just hours before the signing deadline. Although he missed the regular minor league season he has been throwing for the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League. Much has been made of his triple-digit fastball and mind boggling numbers in college. The question remains whether or not he is ready to compete at the highest level. His professional debut in the AFL has had mixed results. Overall, Strasburg has thrown 15.1 innings striking out 17 batters and walking five. He currently has an ERA of 5.28 but this is inflated by one very poor start he made on October 22 when he allowed seven hits, including three home runs, and seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work. He is pitching better than his numbers would indicate. As The Hardball Time's Harry Pavlidis showed he is among the leaders in several pitching categories in the AFL including whiff rate (.339) and he has a remarkable ground ball rate at 73 percent. Strasburg is a physical specimen at 6'4 220 pounds. His four-seam fastball has gained notoriety for reaching 100 plus miles per hour, although he generally sits in the mid-nineties. He throws his two-seam fastball most of the time which runs in the mid-nineties and has late sinking action. He also throws a hard breaking curve ball that actually appears like a slider with good, late downward bite. His command of this breaking pitch has been inconsistent in the past, although it is still generally effective. He will occasionally mix in a change-up as well. With the lack of talent available to the Washington National's there is little doubt Strasburg would already be one of their top pitchers. He could very well open the season in the rotation, although I doubt the Nationals push him that much. The safe bet is to assume Strasburg will begin the season in the minors, working his way up rapidly through the system while under a strictly monitored pitch-count. He could find himself pitching in the major leagues by mid-season and I think he could quickly become the Nationals best starter. He will at the very least stir some positive fan reaction towards a struggling franchise. I compare Strasburg favorably to Mark Prior, another talented young phenom who enjoyed great success early in his career. Prior, however, quickly flamed out after numerous injuries marred a once promising career. It remains to be seen how Strasburg will pan out, but it is apparent he has the stuff to succeed at this level. New blog: Evaluating Baseball’s ManagersTo anyone who cares, I just started my own blog based on my upcoming book, "Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008". Original thinker that I am, the blog is called Evaluating Baseball's Managers. The blog's opening statement to the world is here. It's primarily to create awareness for my new book (hence the unoriginal title). It won't interfere with my regular column here, but the stuff I'd normally post at THT Live will likely go there. Hopefully, I can do it a bit more often than I post those pieces. Hope you like. Here's goes nothing. Understanding the Ken Griffey moveKen Griffey Jr. is returning for what figures to be his swan song, a second straight season in Seattle that figures to see him serve strictly off the bench. Junior is receiving a $2 million base salary with incentives that could bring in another million. Some are stunned that general manager Jack Zduriencik would make this move: 'Z' has proven over the last year to have a very astute mind and is a large reason for Seattle finding itself in the competitive place it does. Why, then, would Z bring back Griffey? For one, the Mariners have the space on the bench. Even though Griffey hit a career low .214 last year, he still juiced 19 home runs in 387 at-bats and can perform off the bench as a pinch-hitter. Given that the outfield has several backup candidates (Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall, Michael Saunders), Griff won't be asked to play the outfield on a regular basis, although he figures to see a bit more time out there with his playing time in general being cut. While the Mariners technically have the DH spot open, there's no chance Griffey fills it on a full-time basis. The Mariners still have the payroll space to bring in a Jim Thome-type player to be the DH. Another reason -- which is really going to draw the ire of some -- is sentimentality. I'm not so cold-hearted that I'm going to completely ignore the sentimental factor. Griffey was a linchpin in the clubhouse last year, which does have value. He was a leader and puts fannies in the seats, which has value. Just because they're not quantifiable or are simply matters of the heart doesn't change the inherent value. In my peeking around on Griffey's cumulative stats (.285/.371/.541 with 630 home runs over 2,638 games) I noticed something that may have factored into Griffey's thinking. By playing one more year, he gets to say he played until 40, in addition to playing in four different decades. (Debuted 1989.) Jesse Orosco, Mike Morgan, Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson both last accomplished this. Griffey figures to enter this exclusive class along with Jamie Moyer in 2010. Look, Griffey isn't worth $3 million as a backup outfielder. We all know this. But is he going to provide negative value? I'm going to say no here. As a quick recap of what I mentioned: Griffey will bring fans to the park, act as a clubhouse leader and find a way to contribute off the bench. He's overpaid because he's Ken Griffey Jr., but if he was paid more according to his talents, many people would be okay with the move. Who's to say that extra $2 million won't be made up (and more) in gate revenue, though? Who's to say Z thinks Griffey's worth an extra $1 million for keeping the clubhouse together after such a fractured 2008? Things aren't always as simple as cold, hard numbers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||