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Monday, November 23, 2009

Greinke and fly balls


In God we trust. All others bring data. -W. Edwards Deming

Along with Zack Greinke's 2009 American League Cy Young Award came a widely-circulated article by Tyler Kepner in the New York Times. In the article, Brian Bannister is quoted, "So a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park."

There's quite a bit to digest in Kepner's article besides that one excerpt from Bannister, but it was one piece that I thought would be easy to check. What did I find?
           Road    Home
Bunt         5%      2%
Fly         30%     33%
Ground      36%     41%
Liner       21%     16%
Popup        8%      8%
The batted ball type comes from the MLB Gameday data. The results don't really line up with what Bannister what saying. It may be that Greinke was pitching for more fly balls at home but not necessarily getting them, but that's a question for another day.

Update: Here's the batted ball log by game.
 Date   Park   Fly  Ground  LD   Pop   Bunt
   4/8  cha      0     8     2     1     1
  4/13  kca      3     4     5     0     0
  4/18  tex      6     9     7     1     1
  4/24  kca      4     9     3     1     2
  4/29  kca      9     6     2     1     0
   5/4  kca      7     8     2     4     0
   5/9  ana     10     9     2     0     2
  5/15  kca      8     7     5     1     0
  5/21  kca      5     8     2     1     1
  5/26  kca      3    13     3     3     0
  5/31  kca      7    11     2     1     0
   6/5  tor     11     3     6     2     0
  6/11  cle      3     8     5     2     3
  6/17  kca     11     7     1     0     1
  6/23  hou      6    14     3     0     3
  6/28  pit      4     4     8     4     1
   7/3  kca      5     9     3     2     0
   7/8  det      7     6     2     0     1
  7/14  sln      0     0     0     1     0
  7/18  kca      4    11     2     3     0
  7/24  kca      3    10     1     1     0
  7/29  bal      6     3     4     3     0
   8/3  tba      1     8     4     0     2
   8/8  kca      6     8     5     3     0
  8/14  det      6     4     5     3     0
  8/19  cha      7     5     4     3     0
  8/25  kca      7     4     1     1     0
  8/30  sea      9     9     2     3     0
   9/5  kca      9     4     8     1     1
  9/11  cle      6     9     2     1     0
  9/17  det      1     3     5     0     0
  9/22  kca      8     3     2     2     0
  9/27  kca      6     8     5     0     0
  10/3  min      7     7     3     0     1


Posted by Mike Fast at 7:15pm (5) Comments

Who should be the Yankees DH?


In a piece at River Ave. Blues yesterday, Mike Axisa wrote at length about the Yankees DH situation. There's a faction of the fan base that would like to see the team promote from within, and make Cuban defector Juan Miranda the regular DH next season, while giving frequent half-days off to the old-ish lineup by allowing them to DH on occasion. Without thinking about it too much, I agreed with this line of thinking. Keeping Hideki Matsui around in 2010 would A) cost much more than promoting Miranda would, and B) make it more difficult to let some regulars DH on occasion, since Matsui can't play the field.

So I figured just let Miranda start around 100-120 games at DH, and give guys like Posada, A-Rod, and Damon the remaining time at DH to keep them fresh. Well in that article at RAB, Mike headed down that road by saying this:
There are always more DH types available than DH spots open, so the Yanks certainly have options. However, the team is said to be looking to scale back the payroll a bit, and if they can’t retain Matsui on favorable terms, the team might be better off filling the DH spot from within rather than dropping seven figures on a guy in the decline phase of his career. I’m not talking about that silly rotating DH thing when I say filling the spot from within, I’m talking about Juan Miranda.


The article continues extolling the virtues of Miranda, saying how he destroyed lefties this year after struggling against them in the past, and how he has hit MLB pitching well in his extremely limited sample size. Essentially what you would expect to hear from a prospect fanatic like Mike. But then it takes an unexpected twist:

Click for more...

Posted by Dan Novick at 3:53pm (4) Comments