February 10, 2012
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Thursday, December 31, 2009Matt Kemp’s ComparablesAs Ken Gurnick reports, the Dodgers and Matt Kemp don't seem all that close on the concept of an extension. In the article, Kemp's agent Dave Stewart (yeah, that one), told Gurnick that Kemp has an early record similar to those of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. The Jones comp works, but it's not perfect; Andruw hit a major wall in his age-24 season (94 OPS+), while Kemp exploded with a 129. Jones' age-23 season, though, is a legit reference. His slash stats that season: .303/.366/.541. Kemp's, at 24: .297/.354/.490. The difference isn't as stark as it seems--those seasons each resulted in a 125 OPS+. 23-year-old Andruw Jones and 24-year-old Matt Kemp were darn near the same player. Stewart's clearly been doing his research (or listening to the right people), as the Beltran comparison is right on as well. His age-24 campaign: .306/.352/.514, good for a 122 OPS+. And I'll throw in another that Stewart didn't note (but really ought to, as his first long-term contract would likely serve as the touchstone for a Kemp extension): Nick Markakis. At 24, he posted a .306/.406/.491 line for the Orioles (136 OPS+). UZR /150 suggests Markakis was better in right field (11.2) than Kemp was in center (3.1). Overall, Fangraphs has age-24 Markakis as 1.3 wins better than age-24 Kemp, 6.3 to 5.0. Age-24 Markakis was one of the best young outfielders the game has seen in recent years. So what's it mean for Kemp going forward? Well, Andruw Jones followed his pedestrian age-24 year with six seasons ranging from 'very good' to 'outstanding.' Then, as you know, he bottomed out, and hasn't been the same player since. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if we get an age correction on him at some point. I don't like him as a comparable for Kemp, and it's not just the strange "early" decline. He had old player batting skills, even as a youngster. His walk rate bounced all over the place, but he always hit for power (just one pre-"30" season with an ISO of less than .200). His BABIP never exceeded .313, which is odd for a "fast" player. Kemp's career BABIP: .366. Clearly, they're just different sorts of hitters. Same problem with Markakis. His age-24 walk rate spiked to 14.3 percent, nearly doubling Kemp's 7.9 percent at the same age. Something was up with Markakis that year--check out his walk rates by season: 8.1, 8.7, 14.3, 8.0. We like to look at plate discipline as a stable indicator of a player's talent, but what in the world is going on here? I'm uncomfortable calling Markakis Kemp's best comparable because of how fluky his age-24 season seems. His ISO's never been higher than .185, and that magical 2008 season is just out of line with everything else we see from him. His 2009 numbers mesh perfectly with his '06 and '07 lines, and I'm inclined to think that he'll be better than he was last season. Still, though, he might never hit better than he did in '08. I don't like him as a Kemp comp, because Kemp's trends are stabler. Which brings us to Beltran. Going into his age-24 season, Beltran had logged about 1200 major league plate appearances. 1199, to be exact. Kemp? 1134. Walk rates at 24: 7.8 percent to 7.9 percent. ISO: .207 to .193. Obviously, singling out individual statistics is always a flawed approach, but my point is that they were very similar at 24. I believe that Beltran's trends are more in line with Kemp's performance and skillset than Jones' and Markakis'. Improving plate discipline, developing power, potent running game. No comparison is perfect, and we shouldn't look at Beltran's career arc and assume that's how things will go for Kemp. But it's a start. Beginning with his age-24 season, Beltran was a complete monster. He had a fluky down year in 2005, but it's a blip. Dude's a Hall of Famer if he can stay on the field. We could see this coming way back in his early Royals days. The two have something else in common, as well: both were superstars by 24, though neither was recognized appropriately. Beltran played for one of the worst franchises in sports, and Kemp got caught in an extraordinarily stupid story line: the kids versus the vets in the Dodgers' locker room. He's still regarded as a raw-yet-tantalizing talent, but the numbers say he's moved beyond that. He's a star. Now, not soon. Kemp has been a better young player than Beltran--their age-24 seasons were remarkably similar, but Kemp's prior performance vastly exceeds Beltran's. We're talking about a transcendent talent, one you'll want to say you saw play when he was just a colt. Wednesday, December 30, 2009Another Annual opinionEric Simon has penned a review of the THT Annual at Amazin' Avenue. In a nutshell, Eric likes it a lot and talks in-depth about a few of his favorite articles. I was glad to see that he particularly liked Jack Marshall's article about the importance and definition of "character" in Hall of Fame arguments. It was one of my favorites, too. Let us know if you also have a favorite THT Annual article, or if there was one you didn't feel was "Annual worthy." We accept all kinds of feedback. You can purchase the THT Annual from ACTA Sports. The Best Stuff On EarthI've been looking at a pitcher's "stuff" using pitchf/x data recently, and here's how I would rank the top five starters of 2009 by stuff: 1. Clayton Kershaw 2. Brett Anderson 3. A.J. Burnett 4. Felix Hernandez 5. Zack Greinke Kershaw might be a step above the field. Relievers 1. Matt Thornton 2. Jonathan Broxton 3. Kevin Jepsen 4. Brian Wilson 5. Mariano Rivera Small Samples 1. Henry Rodriguez 2. Daniel Bard 3. Juan Morillo 4. Joel Zumaya 5. Daniel Schlereth Rodriguez in 75 pitches threw 90% fastballs averaging 99 MPH. Now, if you'll allow me, I have a couple of questions for you, the reader. First, do you think that a left-handed pitcher who throws 94 has better stuff than a right-handed pitcher who throws 94? Also, some pitches are devastating against same-handed batters, but useless against opposite-handed batters. Should the sweeping slider be labeled a *nasty* pitch against same-handed batters and a mediocre pitch against opposite-handed batters? Or should it be regarded as a decent pitch on average, since it has the same characteristics no matter against whom it's thrown. Got Those LinksThe staff at THT Live has decided to crew up and start slinging links. Pat Andriola told me that he thinks we have the muscle to knock off Tommy "Prince K" Bennett, Rob "Avon" Neyer, and BBTF (the entire New-Day Co-Op) . I told him we got our thing, but it's just part of the big thing. He still wants to throw the competition into vacants. Enough of this. To the links. Dan Turkenkopf projects runs above and below average for catchers' ability to block pitches in the dirt based on pitch f/x data from the last 3 seasons. Joe Posnanski with two posts well worth reading, one A Christmas Story reminiscent of The Sandlot and the other on Strat-O-Matic and The Negro Leagues, reminiscent of a piece that's really well written. Tim Kniker lays out a methodology to evaluate a manager's bullpen management. Money quote: "Ron Gardenhire of Minnesota takes the award for best bullpen manager by a wide margin, never finishing below eighth in the majors in any year, and having the best BMAR in each of the last two years." Read on for more BMAR. (Subscription required.) Shawn Hoffman delves into matters MLBAM and piracy. Why hasn't MLB embraced YouTube yet exactly? And be sure to check out Rally's Baseballprojection.com. The CHONE projections are out for 2010 and 2009 WAR data has been added for all players active prior to 2009. Tuesday, December 29, 2009Mets sign BayThe Mets have signed Jason Bay, reportedly their #1 target of the offseason. The price tag is said to be $66 million for four years, or $16.5 million a year, with a vesting option for a fifth year. I'll leave the in-depth analysis to Evan Brunell, the folks at Fangraphs and others, but I wanted to add my own two cents as a Mets' fan. Bay fits several key needs for the Mets. He's a power hitter who plays left field, though not particularly well. Bay is an "old" 31, with troublesome knees, so I expect his fielding to worsen over the length of this contract. He's a right-handed power hitter; the Mets need power, though they'd prefer to get it from a left-handed batter. He has no speed to speak of—Bay's value is in his powerful bat. That price tag essentially means that Bay needs to average three-to-four wins above replacement to justify the deal. Last year, he posted 3.5 WAR, 3.1 the year before. So it's conceivable that Bay's performance could justify this contract. I wouldn't bet on it, though. He's more likely to average in the 2's for the length of this contract with perhaps significant time lost to injury. I think the Mets won't get their money's worth from Jason Bay, and while he will help the team, he won't have a dramatic impact on their pennant probabilities. That is, the extra "stretch" in money isn't clearly justified here. On the other hand, Bay is a good fit for their needs, he won't be blocking any star prospects and shouldn't be a burden on the Mets' budget. So I'm glad they pulled the trigger on this deal. What's more, there are a lot of minor stories to follow, such as wondering how the switch to CitiField will affect his production and celebrating his return to a team that never should have traded him away. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||