March 21, 2010
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Monday, February 01, 2010More on WAREarlier this year, it seemed like every other week FanGraphs was improving its stats section. So I’m anxious to see what David Appelman has in store for the new season comes, as I’m sure his projects have been building up. But first, I had some thoughts on the already-existing WAR. Click for more... Chicago’s $60 million question: will Alex Rios bounce back?Selected with the 19th overall pick in the 1999 draft, outfielder Alex Rios emerged as an all-around threat for the Toronto Blue Jays. The gangly 6-5 righty batter combined power, speed and range, garnering a six-year, $64 million contract extension in April of 2008, with a $13.5 million club option for the 2015 season. Rios' well-rounded skill-set and whopping new deal figured to make him a fixture in the Jays' outfield for years to come. Within a year and a half, however, Toronto's frustration with Rios and its other burdensome financial commitments (hello, Vernon Wells) compelled the club to let Rios go to the Chicago White Sox on a waiver claim. In snagging Rios, the Pale Hose took on what was left of his $5.9 million salary for the 2009 season, as well as a total of nearly $60 million from 2010-2014 (contract information from Cots Baseball Contracts): Click for more... Busy day for AthleticsThe Oakland Athletics had a busy day today, shaking up their 40-man roster. For starters, the team traded Aaron Miles and a player to be named later to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Willy Taveras and infielder Adam Rosales. Click for more... Self PromotionJesse Spector over at the NY Daily News has been running an interview series with bloggers from around the web, called "Blogger Nine Innings." I participated in the most recent edition, representing the THT Live crew. Questions ranged from personal blogging experiences to this winter's busy off-season. If you're looking for a diversion from all the Johnny Damon drama, head on over and check it out. Analyzing the MLB draft using WARThere has been plenty of work published regarding the value of draft picks, most recently the work done by Victor Wang. Wang's previous studies (part 1 and part 2 ) on the draft were a major help for me in conducting this study. He was recently honored by Beyond the Boxscore for the Best Novel Research Article/Project. The basic idea was to test his hypothesis and findings using WAR and more recent draft results. Using the first 100 picks from the 1992-1999 drafts I came up with a sample of 388 players who reached the major leagues. Of these players 212 were drafted out of college, 167 out of high school and nine from Junior College or Community College. I used Wins Above Replacement as my benchmark for evaluating players. The WAR data was obtained from baseballprojection.com’s historical database . I took the average of the player’s WAR over their first six seasons. I chose six seasons as the cutoff because a team retains control of a player for this amount of time before they are eligible for free agency. For a small sample of players I used their 2010 CHONE projections in instances where they did not yet complete six years of service. Similar to Wang's study I broke the data down into first round picks (1-30), second round (31-70), and third round selection (71-100). I have broken down the data based on school below. Please note junior college/community college players are excluded due to a small sample size. Please leave your feedback in the comments section below. Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||