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Thursday, September 30, 2010Justin Verlander: Pitching on the edge of Cy YoungLast night in Cleveland, Justin Verlander made his final start of 2010. His stuff was outstanding and he located his big curveball for called strikes. He gave up seven hits and ended up allowing four runs in seven innings, but there was something else. Verlander did something in that game that was as impressive as anything I've seen this year, a year that's been full of excellent pitching. After getting the first out of the seventh inning, he loaded the bases with two singles and a walk. He then faced Cleveland left-handed hitters Trevor Crowe and Shin-Soo Choo. He knew this was going to be his last inning of the year, and he struck out both of them, on his last eight pitches of a game total of 121. Seven of those last eight pitches were fastballs ranging from 99 to 102 mph. The impressive performance capped off another terrific season, and while he will not win the Cy Young Award this year, he's probably closer than many think. His ERA (3.37) is good enough to rank among the top 10 best starters in the American League. However, it is about a full run higher than that of 2010 leaders Felix Hernandez (2.27) and Clay Buchholz (2.33). He's among league leaders in wins, but so are CC Sabathia, Phil Hughess, David Price and Jon Lester. He ranks highly in WHIP (1.16), but not as high as Hernandez and Weaver. He is topping 200 strikeouts for the second straight season, but Weaver, Hernandez and Lester should all finish ahead of him. While he clearly has posted another great year, most measures Cy Young voters will likely use put the Detroit Tigers pitcher just outside of serious consideration. On the other hand, a couple of advanced metrics actually rate Verlander as not just lurking on the outer edge of the league's best pitchers for 2010, but rather right in the middle of them. Verlander's Fielder Independent Pitching is 2.98. FIP is a metric designed to focus more on what a pitcher actually controls. In other words, batted balls and defense are taken out of the equation. Verlander's FIP is very competitive with the mainstream Cy Young candidates this season. In fact, he's as good as anyone beside Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano. The latter has also had a season that, while terrific, has been slightly under the radar as far as Cy Young talk goes. Verlander also compares favorably to Lee, Liriano and Hernandez in Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement. Verlander's getting a lot of love in some of the advanced metrics, like FIP, because he's keeping a few extra fly balls in the park this year. Some of that may be attributed to luck, as his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate is a little below his career average, which is also a little below league average, by the way. But, while he may have had some additional flies stay in the park and help his numbers, his 41 percent groundball rate is up five points from last year, so I'll give him a little credit for posting such a strong number. His difference in ERA this year, most notably from contemporaries like Buchholtz and Hernandez (while besting them both in FIP), may just mean those guys have a little better defense behind them or that a few extra balls have fallen in the gaps on Justin. About a month ago, Verlander says he finally got a good feel for his curveball. His results in September have shown what a difference getting a feel for his curve makes, as he's struck out 51 batters and allowed only six walks in September. Fangraphs shows that Verlander has also started replacing some of his fastballs with sliders this year. He started working that fourth pitch in last season, perhaps at the expense of his change-up, throwing it 2.3 percent of the time. That number is up to 7.0% this year and is quickly becoming yet another reliable option to keep batters off balance. I first read about Verlander toying with this fourth pitch here last season, and I think that author's suspicion about the Tiger ace adding a fourth pitch is certainly confirmed now that Verlander is liking the slider enough to use it in place of his dominant fastball more often. Verlander has followed up his amazing 2009 season in fine manner, and while his strong finish this year has him just outside Cy Young discussion, his past two seasons mean he should seriously contend in 2011. Had Zack Greinke not been so otherworldly last year, Verlander may have already earned the award. In fact, Verlander's 2009 looks like it could have been even better if a few things had gone his way. For some reason he held batters to only a 36 percent GB/FB rate, a number quite a bit lower than his 41.4 percent career average going into last year. He struck out 269 batters in 240 innings. His WAR ranked just behind Greinke. Now, Verlander wasn't ignored last year: He finished third in voting. Had he repeated his 2009 K rate this year, he may have forced his way into the debate instead of relying on me to build a haphazard case for him. Justin Verlander has pitched well enough to be in the discussion for 2010 Cy Young consideration. He's been just shy of Lee and Hernandez in WAR this season, but has outperformed Buchholz, Price and Sabathia by a good margin. Another year of durability and success under his belt and the addition of a reliable fourth pitch may take him from Cy Young also-ran to Cy Young winner soon. And That HappenedBraves 5, Marlins 1: Sometimes there's a man. I won't say a hero, 'cause, what's a hero? But sometimes, there's a man. And I'm talkin' about Brooks Conrad here. Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Brooks Conrad, in Atlanta (1 for 4, HR, 3 RBI). Padres 3, Cubs 0: San Diego snaps out of it and stays alive. A four-hitter led by Chris Young for five innings and finished by the pen. If the Padres do make it into the playoffs, Young will be huge for them. Partially because he's 6'10" -- that's huge! -- but also because he has an ERA of 0.90 in four starts this year. Giants 3, Diamondbacks 1: But thanks to the Braves and Giants winning, the Padres don't gain on anyone. Eleven Ks in seven innings for Lincecum and a three-run home run for Pat Burrell. Burrell's homer really shouldn't count though, what with him being a guy who the Giants just went out and got and slapped "San Francisco" across his chest. Rangers 6, Mariners 5: A walkoff strikeout. In which the winning team struck out. Classic. You gotta see it to believe it. The beautiful thing about this was that Nelson Cruz had to swing at a wild pitch for it work. If I ran the Rangers' kangaroo court I'd probably fine him for that even if it did constitute the winning, um, strikeout. Indians 4, Tigers 0; Indians 4, Tigers 3: Here's something I'm having trouble processing: Johnny Damon's start in the first game made him only the fifth player in history to play in 140 games in 15 consecutive seasons. The others: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose. I never would have been able to come up with that list. I probably would have put Ripken on it and been wrong (thanks 1994 strike!). I never would have put Damon on it. Indians sweep the doubleheader, by the way. Brewers 8, Mets 7; Brewers 3, Mets 1: In the first game, Milwaukee had a six run lead, blew it, and then came back to win it on a Prince Fielder RBI single in the eighth. According to the game story, only "several hundred fans" were in the crowd. In the second, Trevor Hoffman got the save. He wouldn't have been closing if John Axford hadn't closed the first game, but now he has 601 instead of 600. I can't tell you how dissatisfying it is that he's not finishing with a round number. It's like one blade of grass sticking up out of the middle of an otherwise manicured lawn. Angels 2, Athletics 1: The first sentence of the AP game story: "Torii Hunter's two-out single had barely hit the outfield grass when pink fireworks shot up from the fake rock pile at Angel Stadium." That sounds less like a game story than the opening lines of a novel written by a sophomore creative writing student. It's about suburban ennui and the lack of authenticity in 21st century America. He wrote it in his parents' basement in a upper middle class enclave -- maybe Lake Forest, Illinois -- right after an argument with his father about the scratch he put in door of the Volvo on the way back from Hot Topic, where he was buying a Che Guevara shirt. Dodgers 7, Rockies 6: Matt Kemp -- who hit a two-run homer on Tuesday night -- smacked a grand slam yesterday. It's been a long season, but he's ending it strong: "End strong and give 'em a little preview of what is to come next year," he said after the game. If the Dodgers sweep the Dbacks this weekend, they end at an even .500. Cardinals 4, Pirates 1: With the exception of Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals basically put out the pu pu platter lineup. Really, it was one of the few times all year when the Pirates could be said to have had decidedly better hitters going than the opposition did. Didn't matter, though, as the Bucs just couldn't figure out P.J. Walters (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER). Astros 2, Reds 0: I'm kind of busy so I don't have time to check the game story here, but based on the lineup that the Reds were running out for this one, I assume it was called in favor of the Astros when it got dark and the Reds batters had to go home. I mean, they have school this morning, and they get cranky if they don't get in their jammies and into bed before 9. Orioles 2, Rays 0: A capacity crowd of 36,973 was on hand! Which means that, once you take away the 20,000 free ones the team handed out, actual paid attendance was lower last night than it was on Tuesday. Eh, whatever. They'll sell out their playoff games, people will ring those damn cowbells and wear the big blue mohawk wigs again, and we'll all be wishing they stayed home. In other news: Kevin Millwood is still alive (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7K). Phillies 7, Nationals 1: The Phillies rested the starters they didn't rest on Tuesday night and threw out Blanton instead of Oswalt. This time they cruise instead of lose. They should just play split squad games against themselves until the playoffs start. I'd watch that. Wouldn't you watch that? Adam Dunn got the golden sombrero (0 for 4, 4Ks) in what could have been his last home game as a Nat. Blue Jays 8, Yankees 4: Know what's gonna be hilarious? When Javier Vazquez signs with some big-park NL team next season and goes 15-8 with a 2.85 ERA. He and Carl Pavano can do commercials together. Yankees fans heads will explode. For now though, well, yuck (4.2 IP, 10 H, 7 ER). A-Rod hit a bomb to give him 30 on the year to go with his 100+ RBI. He has strung a bunch of those together. Twins 4, Royals 2: According to the game story, "Delmon Young became the fifth Minnesota Twin to hit 20 home runs, 40 doubles and drive in 100 runs in the same season." The story said he "joined some elite company." Then the elite company was listed: Kirby Puckett, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer. OK, I'll grant you Puckett -- Hall of Famer -- and Morneau -- former MVP -- but Cuddyer and Hunter aren't exactly "elite." I mean, if I was running Club Awesome I'd probably allow my doorman to let them in eventually, but I'd probably have him make them cool their heels behind the velvet rope for a few minutes. And they would NOT get a nice table once inside. White Sox 5, Red Sox 2: Josh Beckett finishes the season 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA. Thank GOD for that contract extension, or else the Sox wouldn't have had this guy at $15.75 million a year through 2014. That's a risk they could not have taken. The Stephen Strasburg TalkThe best part about being a writer for THT is that I get to be part of the Yahoo! Group. Over the last few weeks, we've had our version of The Stephen Strasburg Talk and I wanted to share my own reactions. Let me warn you and make this clear, this is a completely subjective post that draws on my experiences. No data allowed. Click for more... Wednesday, September 29, 2010And That HappenedReds 3, Astros 2: If you're gonna clinch the division, do it on a walkoff jack. Way to go Jay Bruce. Way to go Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati was a great baseball town. Maybe still is a great baseball town. Definitely can be a great baseball town going forward. But it needed this division title to cleanse itself of the negativity that has pervaded Reds baseball for so many years. Not so much the team itself, but the fans and their relationship to it. It needed guys like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips and, yes, Dusty Baker, to remind the town of how fun baseball really is. Yankees 6, Blue Jays 1; Rays 5, Orioles 0: With these wins the Yankees and the Rays clinched playoff spots of their own. Both CC Sabathia (8.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8K) and David Price (8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 8K) pitched gems. Lots of people will no doubt look at these games and decide that nice lines in clinching games = big money and put more steam behind what had been flagging Cy Young cases for each of them. Mariners 3, Rangers 1: But anyone tempted to do so had best take heed: Felix Hernandez is still awesome: 8 IP, 5H, 1 ER, 5K). Will he start on Sunday, or was this it? Justin Smoak with a two-run homer that put the M's up for good. Here's hoping -- for M's fans' sake -- that this is a harbinger of thing to come, not just some weird spite thing against the Rangers. Braves 3, Marlins 2: Eric Hinske's pinch hit, two-run jack keeps the Braves on top in the wild card race. It was a another skin-of-their-teeth win, with Brooks Conrad (big RBI triple late in the game) and Melky Cabrera and Rick Ankiel (big defensive blunder, striking out with a runner on third with less than two outs) doing those things they do best. Cubs 5, Padres 2: Alfonso Soriano hit two homers and the Padres bats continued to slumber. San Diego is now a game and a half back of the Braves in the wild card and are two back of the Giants with five to play. Giants 4, Diamondbacks 2: Juan Uribe had a homer and Pablo Sandoval got a couple of hits, as the Giants moved one game closer to the playoffs. Sandoval: "Five more games. We have to play hard. Don't get comfortable." Nothin' personal, but I have this feeling that Sandoval spends a large portion of his day trying to get comfortable. Dodgers 9, Rockies 7: And so it ends for Colorado. All of these losses to the not-so-good teams in the last week -- the Dbacks and Dodgers -- may have put the final nail in the coffin, but their overall lack of consistency over the course of 162 games is the real cause of death. You can't depend on a month's worth of great play and do very well in this game. Mets 4, Brewers 3: A two-run homer for David Wright and a two-run, game-winning double for Ruben Tejada. And Prince Fielder made a great defensive play in this one. That's the first time I've ever written that. Now watch: per the Jayson Werth thing, Boras will start touting him as a centerfielder. Nationals 2, Phillies 1: A walkoff homer for Adam Dunn against a Phillies lineup that I would have expected to have more bench players than it did a day after clinching. Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ibanez all got the start. Roy Osawalt did too, but he was yanked after 66 pitches, so this was clearly a less-than-100% outing for him, by design. Royals 10, Twins 1: OK, I made a bit of fun of Ron Gardenhire for worrying about the Twins' effort lately, but this is probably a legitimate concern at this point. Kila Ka'aihue hit two homers and had four RBI. Pirates 7, Cardinals 2: The Cards were eliminated before this game was over thanks to Jay Bruce's heroics in Cincinnati. Not that Cardinals fans knew it. According to several Cardinals writers who were tweeting during the game, the Cards out of town scoreboard wasn't updated to show the Reds score for some time after it happened. The first sign to the crowd that the season had become a formality was the PA system blasting R.E.M.'s "It's the End of the World As We Know It." Classic. White Sox 5, Red Sox 4: Boston no doubt learned of their elimination in mid-game as well. Dayan Viciedo won it for the Chisox on a pinch-hit walkoff RBI single. Oh, and Daniel Bard blew a save in this one, so put that in your back pocket as you start gearing up for Boston's hot stove season. Angels 4, Athletics 2: I hope Peter Bourjos can hit in this league, because I'd sure like to see him do this sort of thing for a long time. Tigers vs. Indians: Postponed: Let us keep our feet in wool slippers and mix hot punches--and talk about mail carriers and messenger boys slipping along the icy sidewalks. Let us write of olden, golden days and hunters of the Holy Grail and men called "knights" riding horses in the rain, in the cold frozen rain for ladies they loved. Tuesday, September 28, 2010And That HappenedPhillies 8, Nationals 0: Fitting. Fitting that it was Halladay on the mound, throwing bullets and likely clinching the Cy Young Award (CG, SHO 2 H, 6K). Fitting that it came in Nats Park in front of thousands of friendly fans, just as the season began. This one also clinches the best record in the NL, giving them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Braves 2, Marlins 1: They're still not scoring runs, but a win is a win. Omar Infante singled in the winner in the 11th. Trouble, though: Martin Prado left the game with a "hip pointer," whatever that is, and is likely going to be out for some time. Time the Braves -- clinging to a half-game lead in the wild card -- don't have much of. Cubs 1, Padres 0: Carlos Zambrano blanked the Padres (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER), dropping them a half game back of Atlanta. They're still tied in the loss column, though. Allow me to observe at this point that virtually no one who is not a Braves fan wants Atlanta to beat the Padres for the wild card. Like, I think there's hostility to the idea. I can live with that. Blue Jays 7, Yankees 5: Another A.J. Burnett disaster start (2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER). Open question right now if he's in the playoff rotation. Playoffs which, thanks to this loss and the Red Sox' win, the Yankees will have to wait at least one more day to clinch. Oh, and no home runs for Jose Bautista. I guess he's off those 'roids which, none of us would dare accuse him of taking, but about which "questions remain." Jackass. Cardinals 6, Pirates 4: If Pittsburgh had won, the Reds would have clinched the division from the comfort of their own living rooms. Now they have to go out and clinch on the field against the Astros. A two-run homer and three RBI for Matt Holliday. Dodgers 3, Rockies 1: Colorado digs itself into a deeper hole. Ubaldo Jimenez remains stuck on 19 wins. Remember when people were asking if he could win 30 this year? Yeah, spring was fun. Indians 6, Tigers 3: Miguel Cabrera sprained his ankle while coming back to first base on a pickoff attempt. Jim Leyland thought it looked bad. Two of the top MVP candidates -- Cabrera and Hamilton -- may end the season on the shelf. Orioles 4, Rays 0: Brian Matusz shut down the Rays for seven innings, striking out eight. Nick Markakis had a nice night: 2 for 5, 3B, 2 RBI. He was involved in every scoring play, either knocking in the run, scoring the run of running around the bases while his teammates did those things. Mariners 7, Rangers 5: Justin Smoak went three for four and hit a three-run homer against his old team. The Mariners started five rookies. 2011 spring training begins now. It actually began back in June or so, really. Red Sox 6, White Sox 1: Boston pushes off elimination for one more day thanks to eight strong innings from Clay Buchholz. David Ortiz hit the 100 RBI mark. Mark Buehrle hit the 200 inning mark. Round numbers are fun. Royals 10, Twins 8: Jarrod Dyson had one home run in 1245 minor league plate appearances, and none since his September callup to Kansas City. He knocked a two-run job last night, though, to go with ten putouts in centerfield, which tied a Royals record. Who knows what may happen, but I dare say he just had the best night playing baseball he will ever have in his life. Angels 6, Athletics 5: Justin James plunked in a run with the bases loaded in the seventh and then walked in a run immediately thereafter. That's no fun. Both Oakland and LAA are trying hard to finish at .500 or above. There's a good chance neither do. Brewers vs. Mets: Postponed: See the sky about to rain, broken clouds and rain. This washout has led to a rarity: a single-admission doubleheader at Citi Field tonight. Here's hoping the rain holds off and some die hards get eighteen innings of baseball for the price of nine. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||