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Wednesday, September 01, 2010The THT Graphical ReportTime for the latest in baseball pictures. I've created the latest Hardball Times Graphical Report, featuring pennant race graphs and hitting/pitching/fielding breakdowns for each team. Stats are through the end of August. You can download it here. Welcome to ChapmaniaCan we please come up with a new nickname? It reminds me too much of Newmanium. Aroldis Champan's debut was the talk of not just the prospect world, but the entire baseball world as well, and the Reds' Cuban prodigy did not disappoint. The outing was as brief as his fastball's trip to the plate, but it was just as exhilarating. Between the excitement in the stadium and the transparent helplessness of the Brewers' hitters, Chapman's debut was everything that both Reds' fans and baseball fans could have hoped for. But gushing aside, it's time to see exactly how Chapman performed. We know he threw hard. We know he dominated Jonathan Lucroy, Craig Counsell and Carlos Gomez, which may say more about the Brewers' ineptitude this season than anything about Chapman. And Pitch f/X data is as wonderful of a baseball invention as we've had in decades, but it alone doesn't tell the entire story. Watching Chapman (and part of me wishes he had to work a little harder just so he would have thrown more than 8 pitches), I was looking for one thing and one thing only - was Chapman hitting his target? Throwing strikes is one thing, but throwing the right strikes is another all together. Chapman, more than almost any other pitcher, will be able to get away with missing his target over the plate, simply because of his velocity. But the main difference between big league hitters and minor league hitters is their ability to punish mistakes, no matter how fast they're coming in. Even at first, Chapman will be able to get away with fastballs over the middle, but once the league gets a book on him (which may not be this year if he's only relieving), hitters will know if he's compensating for a lack of control by throwing it down the middle, and will be able to tee off (relatively speaking) even on 105 mph. But 8 pitches into his major league career, Chapman showed no intention of falling into this trap.* Of his 6 fastballs, Chapman his his catcher's target with 3 of them (which is plenty when you throw 100+ mph), and two of his misses were triple-digit offerings down the middle to Counsell, which, given Counsell's complete lack of power, may have actually been the plan. Both of the sliders Chapman threw (which were both to Lucroy, a righty) were exactly where his catcher called for them - down and in - and the final one on which Lucroy swung through was buried at the hitter's feet, which is exactly where an 0-2 slider should be. It's way to early to make any sort of conclusion about Chapman's command based on our extremely small sample size, but when compared to the scouting report I wrote up on him after his first minor league start, I found some consistencies and some improvements. In his first minor league start (on April 10 against Toledo in Double-A), Chapman threw 63 fastballs (of 85 pitches) and hit his location with 37 of them (59%). When he missed, he missed up in the zone. This was consistent with his brief outing on Tuesday. His slider, however, was another story, as the two he threw to Lucroy were two of the better sliders I've seen him throw. In April, he hit his target with just 5 of 17 pitches (29%), repeatedly missing up and over the plate. These are the pitches that major leaguers will hit. The best sign of Chapman's improvement was the fact that he kept both sliders down, especially given that his off-speed offerings were the biggest question mark surrounding him when he signed. Chapman should get multiple opportunities over the next month to put his arsenal on display, and I'll continue to monitor the movement of his catcher's mitt as it happens. It may be early, but what's wrong with getting a little excited over some dominant prospect action? *Yes, I'm jumping the gun and giving a knee-jerk reaction. Get over it. Notable September Call-Ups Some notable prospects that have already promoted thanks to today's roster expansion are Jenrry Mejia (Mets), Freddie Freeman (Braves), Carlos Carrasco (Indians), and Yonder Alonso (Reds), with reports claiming that Jeremy Jeffress and Mat Gamel (Brewers), J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays), and Brandon Snyder (Orioles) are also slated to get the call. There are sure to be more on the way, but the day is young. Arizona Fall League Rosters Announced As if there wasn't enough going on today, the rosters for the 2010 Arizona Fall League were announced today as well. You can view the full rosters here, but the most notable prospects include Dustin Ackley (Mariners), Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson (Cubs), Tony Sanchez and Andrew Lambo (Pirates), Koby Clemens (Astros), Adeiny Hechavarria (Blue Jays), Jose Iglesias (Red Sox), Jared Mitchell (White Sox), Grant Green and Michael Taylor (A's), Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Eric Hosmer, and Derrick Robinson (Royals), Brett Lawrie (Brewers), Chance Ruffin (Tigers), and Brandon Belt (Giants). The White Sox owe their fans an apologyThe White Sox decided to experiment with their DH spot in 2010. Instead of re-signing a prodigious slugger with great on base skills (Jim Thome), general manager Kenny Williams instead decided Mark Kotsay was awesome (he is not) and that the DH should exist for the alternative purposes of resting the fielders (some of whom—specifically Carlos Quentin—should not be playing defense in the first place). Comically enough, Manager Ozzie Guillen blames Thome for no longer being a White Sox. Quoth Guillen: Jim Thome made the decision to leave to the Dodgers," Guillen said initially about the August 2009 deal. "He made that decision to himself, all right."Though Guillen has sarcastically accepted the blame for the Thome non-signing, he and Williams owe a genuine apology to White Sox fans. Here is why: The White Sox, after Tuesday night's win against Cleveland, sit four games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central standings. Thome, who makes a measly $1.5 million this season, has accrued +2.4 WAR for the Twins while Kotsay, who has the same salary, has produced -0.6 WAR for the White Sox. In a vacuum, a re-signing of Thome by the White Sox would give the South Siders a +3.0 WAR swing in the AL Central Standings. Note, however, that Thome has only 279 plate appearances this season while splitting DH duties with Jason Kubel. Of course, Thome's been platooned, which may exaggerate his bottom line, but any potential non-platoon "regression" would surely be offset by the additional playing time he would have seen with the White Sox. Let's just leave the WAR at +2.4 and call it even. The White Sox do not play in a vacuum, however. Thome, in not re-signing with the White Sox, signed a deal with the Twins. Hence, in a Thome-on-the-Sox-over-Kotsay theoretical situation, you have to not only add +3.0 WAR to the White Sox 2010 win total, but also subtract 2.4 WAR from the Twins' 2010 win total. That turns a 4.0 game lead by the Twins in the AL Central into a 1.5 game lead by the White Sox. Still think it is okay to be sarcastic, Ozzie? It gets worse. Not only are the White Sox sitting 4.0 games behind the Twins, but they are in need of a hitting DH. (Turns out burning Mark Kotsay's bat was not enough of a move at the July trade deadline. Maybe the White Sox should have tried burning Kotsay's contract (and Mark Teahen's, while they were at it) instead. Unable to procure either Adam Dunn or Lance Berkman, the White Sox claimed Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers in exchange for salary relief. Without question, the Manny move is an upgrade for the White Sox. Whereas Ramirez is projected by ZiPS to hit .290/.398/.533 (.399 wOBA) for the rest of the season, Kotsay was pegged at only .244/.313/.384 (.305 wOBA) down the stretch. Dave Cameron sees this difference as worth around +1.0 WAR for the White Sox. Unfortunately for the White Sox, however, they are four games behind the Twins (thus, they have three more wins to make up somehow) and Thome has a wOBA of .413 on the season (with a projected wOBA of .370 down the stretch). Per MLB Trade Rumors, 31 games of "salary relief" means $3.8 million. That figure is more than 2.5 times what Thome will make all season and almost $1 million more than Kotsay and Thome's salaries combined. Then, of course, you need to consider that Manny is Manny and you never know quite what you are going to get with him. He might try to get pregnant again or invoke his alleged "do not play" clause during day games. In another chapter in the "Manny Being Manny" saga, he took the early flight to Cleveland from L.A. Tuesday morning and was at Progressive Field in time to play ball, but was not in the White Sox starting lineup. He told reporters that he felt like he was 25 again, but he could not play because, as TBO speculates, he woke up to early that day. Guillen's comments after the game seem to confirm this speculation. To summarize, the White Sox are not in first place this year because they decided that subpar offensive production from the DH position was acceptable so long as they could rest Alex Rios' and Juan Pierre's knees every so often and find a way to work Mark Kotsay's mighty bat into the lineup. Had the White Sox just not give Kotsay a bat to burn to begin with, the Sox would be at least a half game closer in the AL Central Standings. Because the White Sox gave Kotsay said bat, they are now paying 2.5 times the money it would have cost them to keep Thome all season for just 31 games (scratch that, 30 games, as Manny did not play Tuesday) of Mannywood. Talk about "fail." I wonder if the White Sox will sell re-branded Manny dreadlock caps left over from his time in L.A. And That HappenedYankees 9, Athletics 3: I suppose it's inevitable that the Yankees will soon start getting burned by their starters only going four or five innings, but right now it's working. And hey: they're all alone in first place. Why? Blue Jays 13, Rays 5: Because the Rays got annihilated when the Jays put up a 10-spot in the sixth inning. I was going to make that "Gashouse Gorillas doing a conga line around the bases" joke I do a few times a year here, but I did it just a month ago! And it involved the Blue Jays then too! I'm starting to worry that I'm not as clever and original as I like to think I am. Astros 3, Cardinals 0: Land sakes, this is getting ugly. That's four straight in the crapper for St. Louis, seven of eight and, of course, two straight listless shutouts in a row to the Astros, who are the spoilingest spoilers this side of Spoilsburg. Reds 8, Brewers 4: And that makes for a seven game lead for the Redlegs. Aroldis Chapman made his major league debut. And see, I told you that 105 miles per hour business was totally fraudulent. He only hit [gulp] 102. Joey Votto got "MVP!" chants. I think those Cincy fans got a point. Marlins 1, Nationals 0: I didn't see any highlights from this as I was convinced by the missus that I needed to watch "True Blood." I dunno. Ask me after I've seen more than the first two episodes. Anyway, it seems that Nyjer Morgan could have scored a run for the Nats in the 10th inning, but he decided he'd rather try to plow over catcher Brett Hayes than slide like a normal human being. Pirates 14, Cubs 7: The Pirates were cruising and then Sean Gallagher came in and allowed five quick runs. The outcome was never really in doubt, but the Pirates can't even rest when they're up 14-2. Twins 4, Tigers 2: Detroit clung to a 3-2 lead into the seventh but then Phil Coke walked one dude and then plunked two more to load the bases. Ryan Perry came in and walked in a run, and then he gave up an RBI single to Delmon Young. That's teamwork! White Sox 4, Indians 3: Manny's White Sox debut will wait another day. He was on deck, though, waiting to pinch hit in the ninth when A.J. Pierzynski hit a three-run homer to break the 1-1 tie. I just hope that trip to the on deck circle didn't gas poor Manny, thus making him unavailable for this afternoon's game. Braves 9, Mets 2: Luis Castillo bobbled what could have been a double play ball in the fifth and after that the floodgates opened. I'm guessing there will be a lot of folks who want to kill Castillo over that, but (a) there still would have only been two outs in the inning, and the Braves scored a couple of runs before what would have been out number three; and (b) Jon Niese still had to serve up that fat pitch David Ross deposited in the seats for a grand slam. Orioles 5, Red Sox 2: The O's just keep rolling along. Baltimore went 17-11 in August (17-10) with Buck Showalter. This season is always going to look ugly in the standings, but there is some serious hope for 2011 being built here. Phillies 8, Dodgers 4: Ryan Howard and Brian Schneider each had three-run homers as the Phillies find some of that long lost offense. Carlos Monasterios, the Dodgers starter, said this through his translator after the game: "I was trying to pitch my game, but they were able to read all my pitches." Gentlemen: there's a spy among us. Sitting in this very room! Diamondbacks 7, Padres 4: Six straight losses for the Padres. The losses to Philly I get. These to the Dbacks I don't. Giants 5, Rockies 2: Andres Torres led off the eighth inning with what proved to be the winning home run. Only four back of San Diego now. Mariners 3, Angels 1: KIng Felix allowed only three hits and no runs through seven while striking out eight. No decision, though, because he got no run support while he was in the game. That's the story of his season. Royals 10, Rangers 9: Ties 9-9 in the ninth, Willie Bloomquist stole third with one out and then came home with the winning run when Alexi Ogando threw a wild pitch. Wait . . . what's that? Um, I'm sorry everyone. The guild just informed me that I am obligated to say that Ogando "uncorked" a wild pitch. If you have any questions about this please consult the rulebook you've all been provided. The wild pitch stuff comes right after the chapter on "ensuing kickoffs." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||