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Thursday, September 30, 2010Justin Verlander: Pitching on the edge of Cy YoungLast night in Cleveland, Justin Verlander made his final start of 2010. His stuff was outstanding and he located his big curveball for called strikes. He gave up seven hits and ended up allowing four runs in seven innings, but there was something else. Verlander did something in that game that was as impressive as anything I've seen this year, a year that's been full of excellent pitching. After getting the first out of the seventh inning, he loaded the bases with two singles and a walk. He then faced Cleveland left-handed hitters Trevor Crowe and Shin-Soo Choo. He knew this was going to be his last inning of the year, and he struck out both of them, on his last eight pitches of a game total of 121. Seven of those last eight pitches were fastballs ranging from 99 to 102 mph. The impressive performance capped off another terrific season, and while he will not win the Cy Young Award this year, he's probably closer than many think. His ERA (3.37) is good enough to rank among the top 10 best starters in the American League. However, it is about a full run higher than that of 2010 leaders Felix Hernandez (2.27) and Clay Buchholz (2.33). He's among league leaders in wins, but so are CC Sabathia, Phil Hughess, David Price and Jon Lester. He ranks highly in WHIP (1.16), but not as high as Hernandez and Weaver. He is topping 200 strikeouts for the second straight season, but Weaver, Hernandez and Lester should all finish ahead of him. While he clearly has posted another great year, most measures Cy Young voters will likely use put the Detroit Tigers pitcher just outside of serious consideration. On the other hand, a couple of advanced metrics actually rate Verlander as not just lurking on the outer edge of the league's best pitchers for 2010, but rather right in the middle of them. Verlander's Fielder Independent Pitching is 2.98. FIP is a metric designed to focus more on what a pitcher actually controls. In other words, batted balls and defense are taken out of the equation. Verlander's FIP is very competitive with the mainstream Cy Young candidates this season. In fact, he's as good as anyone beside Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano. The latter has also had a season that, while terrific, has been slightly under the radar as far as Cy Young talk goes. Verlander also compares favorably to Lee, Liriano and Hernandez in Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement. Verlander's getting a lot of love in some of the advanced metrics, like FIP, because he's keeping a few extra fly balls in the park this year. Some of that may be attributed to luck, as his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate is a little below his career average, which is also a little below league average, by the way. But, while he may have had some additional flies stay in the park and help his numbers, his 41 percent groundball rate is up five points from last year, so I'll give him a little credit for posting such a strong number. His difference in ERA this year, most notably from contemporaries like Buchholtz and Hernandez (while besting them both in FIP), may just mean those guys have a little better defense behind them or that a few extra balls have fallen in the gaps on Justin. About a month ago, Verlander says he finally got a good feel for his curveball. His results in September have shown what a difference getting a feel for his curve makes, as he's struck out 51 batters and allowed only six walks in September. Fangraphs shows that Verlander has also started replacing some of his fastballs with sliders this year. He started working that fourth pitch in last season, perhaps at the expense of his change-up, throwing it 2.3 percent of the time. That number is up to 7.0% this year and is quickly becoming yet another reliable option to keep batters off balance. I first read about Verlander toying with this fourth pitch here last season, and I think that author's suspicion about the Tiger ace adding a fourth pitch is certainly confirmed now that Verlander is liking the slider enough to use it in place of his dominant fastball more often. Verlander has followed up his amazing 2009 season in fine manner, and while his strong finish this year has him just outside Cy Young discussion, his past two seasons mean he should seriously contend in 2011. Had Zack Greinke not been so otherworldly last year, Verlander may have already earned the award. In fact, Verlander's 2009 looks like it could have been even better if a few things had gone his way. For some reason he held batters to only a 36 percent GB/FB rate, a number quite a bit lower than his 41.4 percent career average going into last year. He struck out 269 batters in 240 innings. His WAR ranked just behind Greinke. Now, Verlander wasn't ignored last year: He finished third in voting. Had he repeated his 2009 K rate this year, he may have forced his way into the debate instead of relying on me to build a haphazard case for him. Justin Verlander has pitched well enough to be in the discussion for 2010 Cy Young consideration. He's been just shy of Lee and Hernandez in WAR this season, but has outperformed Buchholz, Price and Sabathia by a good margin. Another year of durability and success under his belt and the addition of a reliable fourth pitch may take him from Cy Young also-ran to Cy Young winner soon. And That HappenedBraves 5, Marlins 1: Sometimes there's a man. I won't say a hero, 'cause, what's a hero? But sometimes, there's a man. And I'm talkin' about Brooks Conrad here. Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Brooks Conrad, in Atlanta (1 for 4, HR, 3 RBI). Padres 3, Cubs 0: San Diego snaps out of it and stays alive. A four-hitter led by Chris Young for five innings and finished by the pen. If the Padres do make it into the playoffs, Young will be huge for them. Partially because he's 6'10" -- that's huge! -- but also because he has an ERA of 0.90 in four starts this year. Giants 3, Diamondbacks 1: But thanks to the Braves and Giants winning, the Padres don't gain on anyone. Eleven Ks in seven innings for Lincecum and a three-run home run for Pat Burrell. Burrell's homer really shouldn't count though, what with him being a guy who the Giants just went out and got and slapped "San Francisco" across his chest. Rangers 6, Mariners 5: A walkoff strikeout. In which the winning team struck out. Classic. You gotta see it to believe it. The beautiful thing about this was that Nelson Cruz had to swing at a wild pitch for it work. If I ran the Rangers' kangaroo court I'd probably fine him for that even if it did constitute the winning, um, strikeout. Indians 4, Tigers 0; Indians 4, Tigers 3: Here's something I'm having trouble processing: Johnny Damon's start in the first game made him only the fifth player in history to play in 140 games in 15 consecutive seasons. The others: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose. I never would have been able to come up with that list. I probably would have put Ripken on it and been wrong (thanks 1994 strike!). I never would have put Damon on it. Indians sweep the doubleheader, by the way. Brewers 8, Mets 7; Brewers 3, Mets 1: In the first game, Milwaukee had a six run lead, blew it, and then came back to win it on a Prince Fielder RBI single in the eighth. According to the game story, only "several hundred fans" were in the crowd. In the second, Trevor Hoffman got the save. He wouldn't have been closing if John Axford hadn't closed the first game, but now he has 601 instead of 600. I can't tell you how dissatisfying it is that he's not finishing with a round number. It's like one blade of grass sticking up out of the middle of an otherwise manicured lawn. Angels 2, Athletics 1: The first sentence of the AP game story: "Torii Hunter's two-out single had barely hit the outfield grass when pink fireworks shot up from the fake rock pile at Angel Stadium." That sounds less like a game story than the opening lines of a novel written by a sophomore creative writing student. It's about suburban ennui and the lack of authenticity in 21st century America. He wrote it in his parents' basement in a upper middle class enclave -- maybe Lake Forest, Illinois -- right after an argument with his father about the scratch he put in door of the Volvo on the way back from Hot Topic, where he was buying a Che Guevara shirt. Dodgers 7, Rockies 6: Matt Kemp -- who hit a two-run homer on Tuesday night -- smacked a grand slam yesterday. It's been a long season, but he's ending it strong: "End strong and give 'em a little preview of what is to come next year," he said after the game. If the Dodgers sweep the Dbacks this weekend, they end at an even .500. Cardinals 4, Pirates 1: With the exception of Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals basically put out the pu pu platter lineup. Really, it was one of the few times all year when the Pirates could be said to have had decidedly better hitters going than the opposition did. Didn't matter, though, as the Bucs just couldn't figure out P.J. Walters (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER). Astros 2, Reds 0: I'm kind of busy so I don't have time to check the game story here, but based on the lineup that the Reds were running out for this one, I assume it was called in favor of the Astros when it got dark and the Reds batters had to go home. I mean, they have school this morning, and they get cranky if they don't get in their jammies and into bed before 9. Orioles 2, Rays 0: A capacity crowd of 36,973 was on hand! Which means that, once you take away the 20,000 free ones the team handed out, actual paid attendance was lower last night than it was on Tuesday. Eh, whatever. They'll sell out their playoff games, people will ring those damn cowbells and wear the big blue mohawk wigs again, and we'll all be wishing they stayed home. In other news: Kevin Millwood is still alive (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7K). Phillies 7, Nationals 1: The Phillies rested the starters they didn't rest on Tuesday night and threw out Blanton instead of Oswalt. This time they cruise instead of lose. They should just play split squad games against themselves until the playoffs start. I'd watch that. Wouldn't you watch that? Adam Dunn got the golden sombrero (0 for 4, 4Ks) in what could have been his last home game as a Nat. Blue Jays 8, Yankees 4: Know what's gonna be hilarious? When Javier Vazquez signs with some big-park NL team next season and goes 15-8 with a 2.85 ERA. He and Carl Pavano can do commercials together. Yankees fans heads will explode. For now though, well, yuck (4.2 IP, 10 H, 7 ER). A-Rod hit a bomb to give him 30 on the year to go with his 100+ RBI. He has strung a bunch of those together. Twins 4, Royals 2: According to the game story, "Delmon Young became the fifth Minnesota Twin to hit 20 home runs, 40 doubles and drive in 100 runs in the same season." The story said he "joined some elite company." Then the elite company was listed: Kirby Puckett, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer. OK, I'll grant you Puckett -- Hall of Famer -- and Morneau -- former MVP -- but Cuddyer and Hunter aren't exactly "elite." I mean, if I was running Club Awesome I'd probably allow my doorman to let them in eventually, but I'd probably have him make them cool their heels behind the velvet rope for a few minutes. And they would NOT get a nice table once inside. White Sox 5, Red Sox 2: Josh Beckett finishes the season 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA. Thank GOD for that contract extension, or else the Sox wouldn't have had this guy at $15.75 million a year through 2014. That's a risk they could not have taken. The Stephen Strasburg TalkThe best part about being a writer for THT is that I get to be part of the Yahoo! Group. Over the last few weeks, we've had our version of The Stephen Strasburg Talk and I wanted to share my own reactions. Let me warn you and make this clear, this is a completely subjective post that draws on my experiences. No data allowed. Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||