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Saturday, October 30, 2010Forecasting the 2010 Series based on precedentTwo days ago, after Game Two of the World Series, I wrote a piece here at THT Live looking at what had happened in previous World Series when a team won each of the first two contests. Short version: Based on precedent, the Rangers had a one in five chance to win the Series. However, if they won the Game Three, their chances rose to two in five, but would become zero in five if they lost. (Again, this is only based on World Series precedent, not probability theory). Well, the Rangers won Game Three. So now what does the future hold? Rather than look at times a team was up two games to one (that's almost all the Series), or even those when one team won the first two and the other won the third decision, let's note one key fact about this Fall Classic: The home team has won every contest. At the risk of paying too much attention to small sample sizes, that strikes me as noteworthy. After all, in the 50 previous times a team won the first two decisions in a World Series, only 14 happened to the road team and 34 to the home squad (two Series split the first games between towns). What does the past say about a World Series in which the home team wins each of the first three games? Well, it's happened 20 times previously. Here's how those 20 played out (and I'll present the results from the point of view of the up team, which is the Giants in 2010). - Four won the Series in five games (1916, 1933, 1988, 2000) - Four won the Series in six games (1917, 1953, 1980, 1995) - Four won the Series in seven games (1947, 1987, 1991, 2001) - One won the Series in eight games. (1919 was a best-of-nine. It's a Series where one team was on the take, so its predictive value is highly questionable) - Five lost the Series in seven games (1955, 1956, 1958, 1965, 1971) - Two lost the Series in six games (1978, 1981) So, based on this, the Giants have a 13/20 chance of winning, and the Rangers a 7/20. My own hunch is that it's probably a bit better for Texas than that. (I like the previous two-fifths guesstimate). If nothing else, Saturday's win guarantees Cliff Lee will start again. While Game One proved he's human and that Tim Lincecum fella ain't bad, Texas has to like getting two starts from Lee this October. For baseball fans the good news is this: There's an 80 percent chance for the Series going a least six games, and about a 50/50 chance for a seven gamer, based on precedent. About time, as we haven't had a seven-game Series since 2002. Heck, the Ser9ies has featured only one six-gamer since 2003. One related question: If 20 previous Series had the home team win each of the first three games, how long did it take until the road team finally notched a win? Let's see .. . Game Four had the first road victory seven times (1916, 1919, 1933, 1958, 1988, 1995 and 2000). The team up two-games-to-one won six of those (all but 1958). Game Five had the first road victory three times (1947, 1953, 1980), all of which saw the team that won the first two games of the Series win the world title. Game Six had the first road victory three times (1917, 1978, 1981), only one of which (1917) saw the team that won the first pair of games claim the entire Series. Game Seven had the first road victory four times (1955, 1956, 1965 and 1971). In every case, the team that LOST the first two games of the Series won the Series. Three times the home team won every game (1987, 1991 and 2001). Putting it another way, 13 of these 20 games had the home team win Game Four. And of the remaining all-homer Series, the home team won 10 out of 13 times in Game Five, and then seven out of 10 times in Game Six. Oddly, the home team lost a majority of Game Sevens: four out of seven. Based on the above, if the Rangers win the rest of their home games, history says they have a 60 percent chance of winning it all, because six of the 10 times the home team won all of the first five games saw the squad in the Rangers' position win it all. Flipping it around, if they lose just one of the two remaining games, their chances become much bleaker: Nine of the 10 times the first road win came in Games Four and Five, the squad in SF's position claimed the title. Basically, the numbers above say Games Four and Five matter the most. That make sense: The Rangers are the team most needing wins and they're the home team, so a loss would be especially bad for them. My own hazy guess is that Game Four will be key. If the Rangers take that, they have Lee going at home, and if he can avoid being beaten twice in one postseason series, the Rangers need only one of two games in San Fran. Then again, none of this really matters. That's why they play the game and the great thing about baseball is its continual ability to confound everything. Ichiro Suzuki, meet linear weights Depending on when a given event occurs in a baseball game, it will have a different impact on the runs scoring differential. A single, for example, is worth almost twice as much with a runner on first than it is with the bases empty. These events, based on when they occur, are compared through the use of linear weights (or relative valuation).The linear weight system is interesting because it lets us see what would happen to run-scoring in theory if we substituted one event for another. For example, what happens to run creation if a hitter improves his patience at the plate by also increasing the number of times strike three is called. According to Tom Tango's Men On Base Linear Weight System (MOBLWTS), a base on balls is, on average across all possible events, worth +0.35 runs, while a strikeout is comparably worth -0.31 runs. Thus, a player who improves his walk rate at the expense of a comparable decline in strikeout rate is actually improving his run-creation output. A few years ago, Ichiro Suzuki said that he intentionally sacrifices power for batting average. When asked how many home runs he was capable of hitting if he focused on his power strong, Ichiro replied: "If I'm allowed to bat .220, I could probably hit 40. But nobody wants that.” For Ichiro, a .220 batting average would be a significant dropoff from his career average, which is a hair above .330. Nonetheless, I ask this: Would hitting 40 home runs at the expense of a lower batting average, and thus on base percentage, really hurt Ichiro's run-creation output? Let us examine. Under that linear system, the average home run is worth +1.42 runs, while the average single is worth +0.49 runs. This means that a home run is roughly equivalent to 2.9 singles. Ichiro has averaged about 8.5 home runs in his nine-year major league career. If we assume that Ichiro could hit 40 homers, that means that he would need to increase his home run output by 31.5 to match his claimed ability. Using the relative weight of home runs to singles and singles to outs (assuming all non-home run hits sacrificed by Ichiro would be outs), we get a proportion of 1.42(Y)-.30(X-Y)=.49(X), where X equals the number of singles Ichiro would have to hit to "break even" in regard to his run-creation output. Simplifying the equation, we get: X = 2.18Y. Plugging in the relevant numbers, we find that to "break even," Ichiro would need to hit these additional 31.5 home runs at the expense of 68.5 (or fewer) singles. Ichiro averages about 678 at-bats per season with a batting average of .331 (~224 hits). The loss of 68.5 singles (again, we are pessimistically assuming that all of Ichiro's forgone singles would become outs) would cause Ichiro's batting average to plummet to approximately .229. Hence, if, as Ichiro claims, he could hit 40 home runs at the cost of a .220 batting average, then he should not do it. Exacerbating the issue, as a commenter points out below, would be that a loss in batting average would also depress Ichiro's on base and stolen base value, which would further lower his overall wOBA. Still, the issue would be a closer one if "Ichiro with power" was be capable of mustering a batting average that is competitive with the likes of Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, and Russell Branyan, the trade off may be worth it. As is stands, however, ".220 Ichiro" should keep on slapping singles... What do you think? Friday, October 29, 2010And That HappenedGiants 9, Rangers 0: Aaron has the gory details of the bottom of the eighth inning here, and covers just about everything important about this game. I'll simply add that watching Ron Washington manage the Rangers' bullpen in the postseason has been like watching Richie Tennebaum against Gandhi at the U.S. Nationals tournament. All I can think is that Washington's adopted sister married Raleigh St. Clair yesterday, throwing him off his game, leading to all of these unforced errors. On the bright side: Nelson Cruz got to two or three balls in right field in the early innings that Vladimir Guerrero wouldn't have. If not for that substitution, it probably would have been 4-0 Giants heading into that eighth inning. Though, no, I don't presume that makes Rangers fans feel any better. I suppose the smart money has the Rangers being written off now. I can't say I'd bet against it. But there's hope. Hope in the form of the Giants throwing out two lefties in the next two games in Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. Hope in that the Rangers have a lot of righthanded firepower and shouldn't be as feeble in Games 3 and 4 as they were last night. Hope in that, should Colby Lewis falter, Neftali Feliz on seven days rest should be able to go five innings or more. Oh, wait. That just brings us back to Washington. Who will still be managing that pen. Yeah, maybe we should just write Texas off now. Thursday, October 28, 2010When a team wins the first two World Series games . . .Well, the Giants just won Game Two, just as last night they won Game One. What does the future hold? Well, let's see what the past holds. Prior to tonight, a team has gone up two games to none in the World Series 50 times. (That includes two long ago Series in which there was a tie early on, and it took the Series until Game 3 for one team to go up two games to none). The leading teams went on to win 39 of those 50 Fall Classics. Not too surprising. Let's break it down a step further. Here's how the results of the 50 Series by final wins and losses (from the point of view of the team up): - 20 won in sweep - 9 won in five games - 4 won in six games - 6 won in seven games (well, actually five - I'm including the 1919 Series here which was a best-of-nine) - 8 lost in seven games (including another eight game Series: the 1921 Fall Classic, another best-of-nine) - 3 lost in six games. The teams that came back to win it were: 1921 Giants, 1955 Dodgers, 1956 Yankees, 1958 Braves, 1965 Dodgers, 1971 Pirates, 1978 Yankees, 1981 Dodgers, 1985 Royals, 1986 Mets, and 1996 Yankees. The 1955 Dodgers, 1985 Royals, and 1986 Mets won the first championship in franchise history, much as the Rangers are hoping to do. The 1978, 1981, and 1996 Series were the comebacks that ended in six games. One last way of looking at things here: the Rangers have been outscored 20-7. This is only the fourth time a team down two games to none has been outscored by 13 runs or more. The 1987 Cards were outscored 18-5 by the Twins, the 1937 Giants were outscored 16-2 by the Yankees, and worst of all the 1996 Yankees were outscored 16-1 by the Braves. That last one, of course, was a time when the down team shockingly came back, winning in a mere six games. There are only two other times the down team has been outscored by more than 10 runs after two games - in 2001 and 2007. Both squads went on to lose their Series. Looking ahead, teams down two games to none have actually won a majority of the next game: 27-23. Of the 23 teams that lost, 20 ended up getting swept in the Series. So lose Game Three and lose all remaining fight. (The three teams that won Game Four all lost in Game Five: 1910 Cubs, 1937 Giants, and 1970 Reds). So Game Three really is a must-win for the Rangers. To put it another way: of the 50 previous teams to lose the first two World Series decisions, those that lost the next game won .000 of their World Series while those who won the next contest took the Series at a .407 clip. So Texas's odds either go up from one in five to two in five if they win Game Three or down to zero in five if they lose the next one. For any baseball fans out there, 21 of the 27 times the down team won Game Three, the Series went at least six games. It's NEVER happened when the down team losses another one. So if you want a longer World Series, history says to root for the Rangers to win the next one. And That HappenedGiants 11, Rangers 7: I'm trying to remember a sloppier World Series game, but I'm comin' up empty. At least if you don't count the earthquake. The big story today is obviously Cliff Lee, who saw his postseason ERA climb from 1.26 to 1.96 in the space of a couple hours. Then there are the six errors (Pfun Pfact: none were on Juan Uribe or Edgar Renteria, who actually played some pretty spiffy defense out there, amazingly enough). And the fact that the Giants felt they had to bring in Brian Wilson with a seven run lead. And then there was Juan Uribe's bomb and Freddy Sanchez's doubles. All interesting in their own right. But the thing that still stuck in my mind as I went to bed last night was Vlad Guerrero in right field. It was ugly and it was sad and I hope we don't have to see it again. Give me Murphy, Ron Washington. Hell, even give me Francoeur. But if I have to see one of my favorite players embarrassing himself out in the field again, I'm not sure I'm going to be able to handle it. As for the series, I know we live in the age of "Everything That Just Happened Is The Most Important Thing That Has Ever Happened," but it's one game. An encouraging one, no question, if you're the Giants. A punch to the nose, no question, if you're the Rangers. But it's a best of seven here. The Rangers were down 0-1 in the ALCS following a somewhat shocking loss. They didn't need two Cliff Lee victories in that series either. Still lots of baseball to be played. Here's hoping it's played much, much better by both sides. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||