|
May 20, 2013
THT Essentials:
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Kyle Boddy Brian Borawski James Gentile Matt Hunter Frank Jackson Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Jason Linden Dan Lependorf Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Greg Simons Scott Spratt Dave Studeman Shane Tourtellotte Steve Treder And here's the full roster. Now available THT's latest e-book Most Recent Comments
40th anniversary: Bobby Valentine breaks his leg (4)
25th anniversary: The Jose Oquendo Game (12) And That Happened (1) And That Happened (1) And That Happened (1)   
Or you can search by:
 All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Wednesday, July 11, 2012Detailed standings at the all-star breakA couple of times a week, I download a bunch of baseball stats into Excel and generate my own standings table. Since we're at the official All-Star break thingie, I thought I'd inflict my standings format on you: 7/11/2012 Win Probability Added
American League East Temp RS RA PWins Diff Close Bat Starters Bullpen
NYY 52 33 .612 103 412 347 49 3 22-13 4.90 0.96 3.65
BAL 45 40 .529 54 351 387 39 6 29-13 -2.72 -2.56 7.78
TBR 45 41 .523 66 363 359 43 2 21-21 1.22 -1.58 2.35
TOR 43 43 .500 65 430 408 45 -2 11-19 2.40 -3.30 0.90
BOS 43 43 .500 60 432 389 47 -4 17-21 -0.82 -1.38 2.20
American League Central
CHW 47 38 .553 93 409 346 49 -2 19-22 2.40 2.54 -0.44
CLE 44 41 .518 75 385 414 40 4 23-14 2.56 -3.29 2.23
DET 44 42 .512 99 387 381 44 0 24-24 0.47 -0.45 0.97
KCR 37 47 .440 53 344 385 38 -1 21-22 -4.75 -3.25 3.00
MIN 36 49 .424 69 354 441 34 2 20-18 -0.96 -9.82 4.29
American League West
TEX 52 34 .605 82 443 364 51 1 18-17 -0.61 2.84 6.77
LAA 48 38 .558 91 378 334 48 0 19-18 4.96 -0.18 0.22
OAK 43 43 .500 93 319 316 43 0 22-20 -3.82 2.71 1.12
SEA 36 51 .414 52 337 365 40 -4 17-27 -4.34 -2.03 -1.13
Win Probability Added
National League East Temp RS RA PWins Diff Close Bat Starters Bullpen
WSN 49 34 .590 84 348 290 48 1 24-24 2.98 2.63 1.89
ATL 46 39 .541 89 391 357 46 0 22-16 4.42 -2.93 2.02
NYM 46 40 .535 74 394 374 45 1 22-16 5.55 1.13 -3.69
MIA 41 44 .482 66 334 390 36 5 24-22 1.13 -1.35 -1.28
PHI 37 50 .425 32 368 396 41 -4 16-21 -0.21 -1.92 -4.37
National League Central
PIT 48 37 .565 105 345 313 46 2 28-19 1.34 -1.34 5.50
CIN 47 38 .553 82 358 316 47 0 21-21 1.73 1.93 0.84
STL 46 40 .535 92 426 356 50 -4 14-21 3.65 2.18 -2.83
MIL 40 45 .471 78 384 393 42 -2 19-24 1.26 -0.73 -3.03
CHC 33 52 .388 81 317 386 35 -2 15-24 -4.01 -1.70 -3.78
HOU 33 53 .384 35 344 416 35 -2 17-24 -5.82 -3.17 -1.01
National League West
LAD 47 40 .540 48 332 322 45 2 24-21 1.35 0.13 2.02
SFG 46 40 .535 56 338 346 42 4 29-19 5.15 -2.06 -0.09
ARI 42 43 .494 75 375 365 44 -2 17-21 0.20 0.12 -0.82
SDP 34 53 .391 72 305 381 35 -1 19-26 -2.42 -6.90 -0.18
COL 33 52 .388 59 413 479 36 -3 14-20 -0.08 -6.82 -2.60Not that big a deal, really. You've got your wins and losses, temperature (based on the Bill James formula that measures how hot a team is--room temperature is "normal"), runs scored and allowed, pythagorean wins (based on runs scored and allowed), the team's record in close games (those decided by one or two runs) and Win Probability Added attributed to the offense, starting pitchers and relievers. Your standard sabermetric stuff, but stuff that isn't typically listed together.These are all macro-level numbers, but you can use them to see what's going on. The Orioles have substantially beat their pythagorean record by winning close games (hence, the outrageous WPA posted by the bullpen). But they're kind of cold right now, and that particular ship appears to be sinking. The Dodgers are even colder, despite leading the National League West. Their starters haven't contributed a lot, though they're still the best in the West. Can the Pirates keep it up? They're the hottest team in baseball right now, in first place to boot. But their bullpen has the third-highest total in the majors and they've had a fine record in close games. They're one of the best stories in the league right now, but the signs point to danger ahead. The Phillies? In last place. Cold, cold. The most dramatic offense in the majors belongs to the Mets (comebacks!) but they also have one of the worst bullpens. The Marlins are about even in close games, but five games ahead of their pythagorean record. That implies that they've lost their blowout games. Actually (looking it up), it's true! The Marlins are 3-13 in games decided by five more more runs. The Rangers' bullpen has been wildly good, but Texas hasn't won more than their share of close games. What's up with that? Oakland's starters have contributed more to their WPA than anyone else. The White Sox are solidly in first place, but are the Tigers stirring? Their temperature is higher than it's been since mid-April. And check out the difference in WPA between the Twins' starters and relievers. If you'd like, find your own stories in the numbers. And let's play ball. Justin Verlander’s no-good, very bad All-Star GameIf five was ever Justin Verlander's lucky number, it isn't this morning. The Tigers All-Star and reigning MVP gave up five earned runs in the first (and his last) inning of Tuesday's All-Star Game. That's obviously a rare occurrence. How rare? That's why you come to The Hardball Times: so borderline-obsessive stats-craving fans like me can tell you just how rare. Looking at it from the Midsummer Classic angle, it's only been eight years since a pitcher gave up five runs or more in a single frame of an All-Star Game. That's when Roger Clemens got shelled for six in the first inning of the 2004 game. There are, however, two mitigating factors to Rocket's debacle. One, only three of the runs were earned. Two, his catcher was Mike Piazza, victim of an infamous Clemens beanball and an even more infamous bat-splinter chuck (which sounds like Batman's worst utility belt device). It's very strongly suspected that Piazza was tipping Clemens' pitches to the AL batters in an act of retribution. You may believe or not as you wish. For five earned runs hung on one pitcher in an inning, we have to go back to 1983, when San Francisco's Atlee Hammaker gave up seven runs, all earned, in two-thirds of the third inning against the American League. The capper to that fireworks show was Fred Lynn's grand slam, the only one in All-Star Game history. Probably not as rare as Pablo Sandoval getting that bases-clearing triple against Verlander, but still pretty historic. As for how often this has happened to Verlander, the answer is what you would expect: not often. Last night was only the fourth time he has given up five runs in a single inning in the majors. On April 13, 2006—only his fourth big-league start—he coughed up five runs in the third inning against the While Sox before being lifted for Jason Grilli. Four months later, on August 26, he suffered a six-run fifth against Cleveland, giving way to Zach Miner. Last, on April 10, 2010, it was an All-Star preview as Verlander gave up five runs in the first inning, again versus Cleveland. He lasted five-plus frames in that game before Eddie Bonine relieved him. Ron Washington was not so forgiving last night. Perhaps he should have been. Despite the early 5-0 hole and a 7-1 deficit in the sixth, Verlander's Tigers came back to win that game, 9-8, on a so aesthetically pleasing walk-off wild pitch. This being the only experience of a five-run inning that Verlander had had in nearly six years, maybe he had grown to expect such comebacks and was trying to set one up last night. No, of course not. But it's the best explanation I had, especially since Verlander has never thrown a bat-shard at Mike Napoli. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||