December 5, 2013
Get It Now!Hardball Times Annual is now available. It's got 300 pages of articles, commentary and even a crossword puzzle. You can buy the Annual at Amazon, for your Kindle or on our own page (which helps us the most financially). However you buy it, enjoy!
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Sunday, May 05, 2013
I've been creating these graphs for about 20 years or so. For a while, I mostly created them for myself, because I'm kind of a visual person. When the Internet came along, I posted them on a website of my own (http://www.baseballgraphs.com) and then I moved them here to the Hardball Times nearly ten years ago. They've stood my own subjective test of time, so I'm going to force one of them on you today.
Here is a simple runs scored/allowed graph for the American League this year, through Saturday's games. Runs scored are on the X axis, and runs allowed are on the Y axis. I changed the Y axis so that teams that allow fewer runs are at the top of the graph—this way, the best teams are in the upper right-hand corner, which is how most people naturally interpret graphs.
I also added dotted lines that represent an expected winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed; the number next to the team's name indicates how far their actual record varies from their expected record. (Recall that teams tend to regress to their expected winning percentage, particularly in one-month samples.
So what does the graph say? A few fundamental, probably unsurprising, things: