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November 28, 2011

The return of Chili Davis

Under ordinary circumstances, the hiring and firing of hitting coaches doesn’t generate much in the way of headlines or analysis. In the case of the Oakland A's, however, the hiring of Chili Davis creates some legitimate interest. It marks the return of a hitter who enjoyed a successful 19-year career to the ranks of the big leagues, where the A's hope he can turn around of a drowsy offense.

Charles “Chili” Davis was one of my favorite players of the 1980s and '90s. First, I loved the nickname, a shortening of “Chili Bowl,” the words used to describe a ghastly haircut that he once received as a child. With a nickname like Chili, Davis became more memorable than he would have been as merely Charles Davis.

I also liked the way he transformed his reputation. Playing for the Giants in his 20s, Davis had speed and power but was often criticized as a lazy and uninterested player who did not play hard. He put up respectable numbers for the Giants, but his critics felt that he fell well short of his superstar potential.

Somewhere along the way, Davis underwent an epiphany. Perhaps it started in Minnesota, where he contributed to a world championship in 1991. By the time Davis joined the Yankees in 1998, he was being praised by the New York writers as one of the game’s elder statesmen. Even though Davis played only two seasons with the Yankees, he completely fortified his reputation as a genuine leader, an all-round good guy, and a role model to the younger players on the team. In spite of missing a large portion of the season to injury, Davis contributed to the Yankees’ memorable 1998 world championship, and then put in a full season for the 1999 champs before retiring.

At one time, it appeared Davis might return to the Yankees as a batting coach, but that never happened. There were also close calls with the Mariners and Diamondbacks, who both seemed on the verge of offering him batting coach jobs before pulling back. Finally, the A’s have given Davis that chance, in large part because of his friendship with manager Bob Melvin. As one of the game’s more successful switch hitters, it is hoped that Davis can specifically provide aid and comfort to Oakland’s young switch-hitters Jemile Weeks and Cliff Pennington.

Just as significantly, Davis may be able to restore some of the patient, work-the-count philosophy that seemed to govern the A’s during the Jason Giambi-Nick Swisher era. The A’s have seemingly lost the ability to develop patient hitters over the last five years. Davis was an exceedingly selective hitter throughout his career, drawing 80-plus walks five times and reaching the 70-walk mark four other times. If Davis can’t teach the value of the base on balls, then no one short of Gene Tenace will be able to do the trick.

Outside of Lou Piniella, Rudy Jaramillo and a few others, most hitting coaches don’t make a huge difference. I’m betting that Davis will be one of the exceptions. Either way, I’m glad to see that Chili Davis is back in the major leagues, doing what he should be doing: teaching the art of hitting and helping young players become better.
Posted by: Bruce Markusen

October 27, 2011

How good has Mike Napoli’s World Series been?

With the World Series having shifted to St. Louis for good, we won't be able to hear the catchy "Na-Po-Li!" chant echo throughout Arlington anymore. However, Texas' catcher will still be heard and felt in a big way for the rest of the series and will likely be named series MVP if the Rangers close out their first world championship.

Mike Napoli has been so strong offensively in the eighth spot in the Rangers lineup that he's outperformed every player in this series except, perhaps, Cardinals hitter Albert Pujols. Even Pujols' batting average, RBI and slugging percentage don't match up to Napoli's production over the first five World Series games. In fact, if we look back at the cleanup hitters in the past five Fall Classics, it seems like Napoli has out-produced them all.

	             Slash Line	HR	RBI	R	XBH
Napoli 2011	.308/.389/.846	2	9	2	3
C. Ross  2010	.235/.381/.471	1	2	5	2
Guerrero 2010	.071/.125/.071	0	2	0	0
A-Rod 2009	.250/.423/.550	1	6	5	4
Howard 2009	.174/.240/.391	1	3	3	3
Howard 2008	.286/.375/.762	3	6	3	4
C. Pena 2008	.118/.250/.176	0	2	1	1
M. Ramirez 2007	.250/.333/.313	0	2	3	1
M. Holliday 2007.294/.294/.471	1	3	1	1

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 17, 2011

Offensive surge gives Cardinals NL pennant

The St. Louis Cardinals are in the World Series for the third time in eight years after an offensive explosion propelled the Redbirds to a six-game series win over heated rival Milwaukee. St. Louis scored 43 runs over the six games, including a dozen in a 12-6 win on Sunday night.

The Cardinals offense improved its overall numbers from the regular season and currently top the eight postseason teams in batting average and are second in on-base percentage and slugging.

	             AB	        Slash Line	 HR	XBH
Cards Reg. Season   5532      .273/.321/.425	162	502
Cards Postseason     386      .288/.345/.448	 10	 39

Rafael Furcal's solo home run in Game Six gave the veteran shortstop nine home runs since the start of the regular season, and six of those have come against Milwaukee. But the real story in the playoffs for Tony La Russa's squad is the emergence of David Freese as a frightening presence in the lineup.

Freese hit a home run every 36.3 plate appearances in the regular season, and that number is down to 10.75 in the playoffs. He's averaging an extra-base hit every 4.77 plate appearances, about once per game, down from once every 13.44 regular season PA. The staggering numbers do not stop there:

	                 PA	  Slash Line	 HR	XBH
Freese Reg. Season	363	.297/.350/.441	 10	 27
Freese Postseason	 43	.425/.465/.850	  4	  9

Freese probably would not be able to duplicate those numbers on his favorite game console, and his surge of offensive proficiency and prowess is a major reason why the Cardinals are the NL's surprise World Series entrant.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 10, 2011

Brewers score big for Greinke

After Milwaukee’s 9-6 win over archrival St. Louis in Sunday’s Game One of the NLCS, Zack Greinke claimed another win at home for the Brewers. In fact, when Greinke has started at home, the Brewers are a remarkable 17-0. Greinke, including the postseason, is 12-0 with a 3.68 ERA in his 17 starts (43 earned runs in 105 innings) this season at Miller Park.

Greinke has, frankly, been awful so far in the postseason if you strictly look at things from an ERA standpoint. He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his 11 postseason innings, but his offense bailed him out in Game Two of the Division Deries against Arizona and Sunday against the Cardinals. For the Brewers, this has been a season-long trend of the offense scoring at an abnormally high rate for Greinke.

                     Games  Team record Runs	Runs per game	   
Greinke's home starts	17	17-0	98	5.76	   
Every Milwaukee game	168	100-68	752	4.48	 

So as you can see, Milwaukee has scored more than one and a quarter more runs per game for Greinke at home than they would for any other pitcher. The disparity would be even larger if you take those 17 Greinke games at home from the Bredwers' 168-game total. I don’t know what it is about the Brewers’ offense playing at its best when Greinke wears the home whites, but it could be a trend that helps Milwaukee win its first world championship.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 07, 2011

The Division Series, last night and tonight

Many Detroit players were key contributors in the team's ALDS upset of the Yankees, but two players acquired during the season by GM Dave Dombrowski, Doug Fister and Delmon Young, played key roles throughout the series, especially in the decisive game five.

Delmon Young	 PA	  Slash Line	HR	RBI	 R	XBH	   
With Twins	325	.266/.305/.357	 4	 32	26	 20	   
With Tigers	178	.274/.298/.458	 8	 32	28	 14	   
Tigers LDS	 21	.316/.381/.789	 3	  3	 4	  3	 

Young's power numbers increased dramatically with Detroit, and his three solo homers against New York all came at crucial times. His home run in the first inning Thursday night gave the Tigers an early lead and set the tone for the rest of the contest for manager Jim Leyland.

On the other side of the ledger, Yankees skipper Joe Girardi surprisingly used the same lineup in all five games. Young top prospect Jesus Montero and veteran outfielder Andruw Jones were left on the bench. While right fielder Nick Swisher struggled, going 4-for-19 in the series, Jones notched an RBI in his lone plate appearance. Swisher surely had a solid regular season, but he has historically performed poorly in his career against Detroit. Jones has fared better.

Career	         PA	  Slash Line    HR      RBI      R       XBH	   
Jones vs DET	 75	.258/.387/.468	 3	  4	10	   7	   
Swisher vs DET	236	.223/.369/.399	 8	 27	33	  17	 

Granted, Swisher had a .273 average and a .414 OBP against the Tigers this year, but Girardi probably should have realized that Swisher was struggling in the series. While the Yankees manager was very quick to pull pitchers, he seemed strangely reluctant to change up his offense, which ultimately faltered in the disappointing defeat.

Milwaukee and Arizona both dominated their two games at home offensively, but the scene now shifts back to Miller Park for the deciding contest. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo seems like a different pitcher at home; he had a 10-2 regular-season record at home with an even 3.00 ERA, more than a full point better than his road ERA. Though Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy is better at Chase Field than he is at home, his regular-season road numbers (10-2, 3.19) are quite comparable to Gallardo's.

In the NL's second Game Five, Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter has been a revelation since the All-Star break, going 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 3-0, 2.15 since the beginning of September. But only tonight's Game Five in Philadelphia matters now, with Carpenter playing second fiddle in the pregame billing to Phillies ace extraordinaire Roy Halladay. The splits clearly favor the home team:

Game Five SP	 IP	Record    ERA	WHIP	K/9			   
Halladay Home	112.2	  8-3    2.48	0.99	8.6			   
Carpenter Road	119.1	  7-6    3.85	1.27	7.4

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung


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