Search THT:

Or you can search by:

May 02, 2012

The list, and the wait, grow longer

Dee Gordon hit the first home run of his career Tuesday. Gordon isn't know for his power; he's known for his speed. One day he'll probably tag up from second and score on a pop-up to shortstop.

Dee Gordon has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Jose Tabata homered for the first time this year Tuesday. With nine career long balls in 812 at-bats, that's about one home runs every 90 at-bats.

Jose Tabata has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Rafael Furcal went deep Tuesday for the initial time this season. He actually has more than 100 career home runs, maxing out at 15 in a single season twice, but he's always been known as a speedy (and oft-injured) leadoff hitter.

Rafael Furcal has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Cory Snyder, Gordon Beckham and Mark Kotsay all did something Tuesday they hadn't done before in the 2012 regular season. Care to guess what it was? Care to guess what it means?

Thus far, 252 players have hit at least one home run this season. Albert Pujols is not one of those players.

This is not a vengeful rambling of a Cardinals fan rejoicing in the pain of a former hero (though I am a Cardinals fan). No, this is an inquiry into when one of the great hitters in the game's long history will start performing as we all expect him to.

Sure, the signs of decline have been evident the last few years, with Pujols' triple-slash line steadily declining from .357/.462/.653 (1.114 OPS) in 2008 to .299/.366/.541 (906 OPS) in 2011. But last year's OPS+ was still a healthy 148; it's not like Pujols was Adam Dunn bad, where we weren't sure he'd ever bounce back. He still had 37 home runs in 2011, an identical number to his 2008 total.

Knocking the ball over the fence has never been a problem for Pujols, who "bottomed out" in 2007 with a mere 32 long balls. But for some reason—the pressure of his new contract, moving to a new league, having to spend too much time in perfect SoCal weather—that first home run has yet to clear the fence.

Now, we all know it will come, and when it does, it's likely Pujols will pull out of his funk and start shredding the ball as he typically does. But for now, it gives us a chance to speculate.

So, when will Pujols finally join the gaggle of players who have knocked a ball over the fence? Make your guess in the comments section, and we'll see who comes closest to predicting the date Albert Pujols' homerless drought died.

I'm going with Saturday, May 5, against Toronto's Kyle Drabek (though tonight's match-up against Liam Hendricks—WHO?—is enticing).
Posted by: Greg Simons

October 27, 2011

Farrell situation a win-win for the Blue Jays

With much talk in the last three days regarding the possibility of John Farrell moving from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Boston Red Sox, the issue of Farrell's situation with the Jays seems to have slanted altogether.

If I recall, it was only a matter of weeks ago that there was a sect of Blue Jays fans and pundits that didn't seem to care much for Farrell's status with the team, even going as far as suggesting that the Jays should hire the recently unemployed Terry Francona to manage the team and in turn demote Farrell to pitching coach.

Now that there are rumors of the inverse occurring and Farrell perhaps moving over to the Red Sox, these same people are up in arms, ruing the potential loss of one of the game's bright young managers. The Blue Jays announced forcefully that they will not let an employee under contract to break it for a lateral move to another team. Farrell just completed the first year of a three-year contract.

Well, which is it? Does it really matter if Farrell takes off to the Sox? My inclination is to say no, absolutely not.
Click for more...

Posted by: Chris Lund

September 20, 2011

Comparing Curtis Granderson

After his 41st home run on Monday afternoon in a 6-4 win over Minnesota, Yankees slugger Curtis Granderson has seemingly furthered his case for the American League MVP award. However, sabermetricians and the stats of past prolific Yankees home run hitters over the 21st century would show that Granderson is not worthy of the award.

Granderson, with his 7.0 WAR, doesn't even have the best WAR on his own team—CC Sabathia bests him with a 7.1—and Granderson is well behind Jacoby Ellsbury's 8.5 and Jose Bautista's 8.2. Even Dustin Pedroia edges Granderson with his 7.3, and 24-game winner Justin Verlander matches his former Detroit teammate with his 7.0 WAR.

AL MVP candidates	        PA        Slash Line    HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	   
Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR	612	.304/.448/.623	42	100	102	8.2	 8	   
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS	681	.319/.376/.539	27	 96	111	8.5	37	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS	        684	.297/.380/.463	20	 83	 96	7.3     26	 

Granderson's team has fared better than the other candidates', which still may be a factor in the minds of some of the voters, but many of his numbers don't stack up compared with other MVP candidates and previous Yankees home run hitters.

	                PA        Slash Line    HR      RBI      R      WAR     SB	 Awards
C. Granderson, 2011	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	??
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	MVP (1), SS
Alex Rodriguez, 2005	715	.321/.421/.610	48	130	124	9.1	21	MVP (1), SS
Jason Giambi, 2003	690	.250/.412/.527	41	107	 97	5.0	 2	MVP (13)
Jason Giambi, 2002	689	.314/.435/.598	41	122	120	7.0	 2	MVP (5), SS

When Rodriguez won the MVP in 2007 and 2005, his numbers were better than Granderson's across the board except Granderson's runs, which lead the AL. That total is the best stat he has going for him besides the home runs. Giambi did not play the field in 43 percent of his games in 2002 and 2003, which impacted his WAR numbers and MVP chances.

The average WAR of the last five AL MVPs is 7.4, and that number is weighed down by Justin Morneau's 4.0 WAR in 2006 (Derek Jeter and David Ortiz each had a 6.3 and finished second and third, respectively). Pedroia's 6.8 in 2008 was oddly the best WAR among the top five vote-getters. But I digress...

 
	                  PA	  Slash Line 	HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Josh Hamilton, 2010	  571	.359/.411/.633	32	100	 95	8.7	 8	   
Joe Mauer, 2009	          606	.365/.444/.587	28	 96	 94	7.9	 4	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2008	  726	.326/.376/.493	17	 83	118	6.8	20	   
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	  708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	   
Justin Morneau, 2006	  661	.321/.375/.559	34	130	 97	4.0	 3	 

You could make a decent case that Granderson should win the MVP this season (and some people certainly could speculate that performance-enhancing drugs has to do with past inflated WAR numbers), but he would certainly be a below-average MVP candidate from a historical and, in my view, a current perspective.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 16, 2011

Revisiting the Napoli-Wells three-way trade

After Rangers catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli collected two more hits to raise his average to .312, it brought me back to what turned out to be a relatively lopsided three-way trade.

The original purpose of the deal was for Toronto to get rid of Vernon Wells' contract, sending him to the Angels for Napoli and Juan Rivera, who was later designated for assignment and shipped to the Dodgers. With J.P. Arencibia seen as their future at catcher, the Blue Jays sent Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco, who turned out to be the Jays' closer for a decent stretch this season.

I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the players in this trade, which was really two separate deals, with a nifty comparison graphic.

 
	                PA	 Slash Line	HR	RBI	 R	 WAR	   
Mike Napoli, Rangers	392	.312/.411/.613	26	67	67	 5.0	   
Vernon Wells, Angels	478	.218/.251/.399	21	56	56	-0.3	   
Juan Rivera, TOR/LAD	473	.260/.321/.381	9	62	40	 0.7	 

 
                              Innings 	Record/ERA/SV   WHIP    K/9	WAR	   
Frank Francisco, Blue Jays	47.2	1-4, 3.78, 15	1.36	9.44	0.7		 

Despite Wells having $86 million left on his contract at the time of the trade and Anaheim being left to start a light-hitting, defensive-minded catcher in Jeff Mathis, the Angels decided it would be best to acquire Wells and deal the power-hitting Napoli, coming off a 26-home run season, to the Blue Jays. Having led baseball in team home runs the season before, it was understandable that Toronto would trade Napoli to Texas for some relief help.

But the clear, obvious winners in the trade were the Rangers. Napoli has given them yet another power-hitting addition to their scary-potent offense, while Wells has proven that he will be a past-his-prime toxic contract for the Angels for years to come. Who would have thought that trading Napoli to Toronto would have drastically changed the landscape of the AL West race?
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

August 25, 2011

Mike Flanagan career highlights

Recently, the world heard the sad and shocking news that former pitcher Mike Flanagan died at the age of 59, an apparent suicide.

The main tragedy is the loss of the person. Others can speak of that loss far better than I. What I can do is a retrospective of his playing career, looking up some highlights for the late, lamented hurler.

The list of career highlights includes several types of games. There are the most important games he appeared in, some of the greatest games he saw, his personal highlights, some lowlights, and some of the stranger and more unusual things Flanagan was on hand for.

Here they are divided up by what teams he pitched for (Baltimore for a long time, then Toronto, then back to Baltimore).

Click for more...

Posted by: Chris Jaffe


Click here for more THT Notes.