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September 25, 2012

Dee Gordon, invisible man

I've been reading Bill Chuck's Billy-Ball.com for years, and he and I exchange e-mails about his posts from time to time. On Monday, Bill had a post that caught my eye for an odd reason, and I felt obliged to comment.

Bill was citing the number of players with 20-plus stolen bases thus far in the 2012 season. Having just watched Sunday night's Dodgers-Reds tilt that included Dee Gordon throwing balls everywhere except to the first baseman's glove, Gordon was on my mind. (I have Gordon on a fantasy team, too, so I've been following him and his one-category contributions all season long.)

I couldn't help but notice that the speedy Gordon wasn't listed among those with at least 20 swipes, so I mentioned this to Bill. He responded that he had done a search at Baseball-Reference.com, and we all know the power and wonder that is B-Ref, so the lack of Gordon on the list was surprising.

I could think of only one explanation for this omission, which I shared with Bill: "Maybe B-Ref looks at his overall game, realizes he does NOTHING good except stealing bases and makes the value judgment to disregard him as a baseball player. It doesn't sound logical, but it's the best reason I can think of."

Bill found the glitch and re-posted the list, but I couldn't stop thinking about Gordon and his future. With the acquisition of Hanley Ramirez, the Dodgers found a shortstop for the remainder of 2012. However, 2013 could be a different story, with Ramirez possibly shifting to third base once again and opening up short for Gordon.

The question is, can Gordon do enough to justify the starting role? Yes, he has terrific speed. In about one-third of a season last year, Gordon swiped 24 bags, and this year he has pilfered 31 bases in about a half-season of games. But what else does he bring to the table?

Last year, he raised expectations with a .304 batting average in 224 at-bats. Sure, his slugging percentage was an unimpressive .362, as was his .325 on-base percentage, but if Gordon could hit .300, he would at least appear to be providing value. This season? How about a .228/.281/.281 triple-slash line? Gordon's stick has gone flaccid.

Defense? Well, if you watched Sunday's performance, you got a glimpse of why people question whether Gordon can remain a shortstop.

So you have a weak-hitting, poor-fielding speedster. The mid-1970s Oakland A's took a player like this, Herb Washington, and made him a pinch-runner. Incredibly, Washington appeared in 92 games in 1974 but had zero (yes, zero!) plate appearances. (He returned in 1975 for a mere 13 games, also without ever standing at the dish.)

Dee Gordon is almost certainly a better player than Herb Washington, but he needs to make some significant improvements at the plate and in the field if he wants to stick in the big leagues for any length of time.
Posted by: Greg Simons

May 02, 2012

The list, and the wait, grow longer

Dee Gordon hit the first home run of his career Tuesday. Gordon isn't know for his power; he's known for his speed. One day he'll probably tag up from second and score on a pop-up to shortstop.

Dee Gordon has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Jose Tabata homered for the first time this year Tuesday. With nine career long balls in 812 at-bats, that's about one home runs every 90 at-bats.

Jose Tabata has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Rafael Furcal went deep Tuesday for the initial time this season. He actually has more than 100 career home runs, maxing out at 15 in a single season twice, but he's always been known as a speedy (and oft-injured) leadoff hitter.

Rafael Furcal has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Cory Snyder, Gordon Beckham and Mark Kotsay all did something Tuesday they hadn't done before in the 2012 regular season. Care to guess what it was? Care to guess what it means?

Thus far, 252 players have hit at least one home run this season. Albert Pujols is not one of those players.

This is not a vengeful rambling of a Cardinals fan rejoicing in the pain of a former hero (though I am a Cardinals fan). No, this is an inquiry into when one of the great hitters in the game's long history will start performing as we all expect him to.

Sure, the signs of decline have been evident the last few years, with Pujols' triple-slash line steadily declining from .357/.462/.653 (1.114 OPS) in 2008 to .299/.366/.541 (906 OPS) in 2011. But last year's OPS+ was still a healthy 148; it's not like Pujols was Adam Dunn bad, where we weren't sure he'd ever bounce back. He still had 37 home runs in 2011, an identical number to his 2008 total.

Knocking the ball over the fence has never been a problem for Pujols, who "bottomed out" in 2007 with a mere 32 long balls. But for some reason—the pressure of his new contract, moving to a new league, having to spend too much time in perfect SoCal weather—that first home run has yet to clear the fence.

Now, we all know it will come, and when it does, it's likely Pujols will pull out of his funk and start shredding the ball as he typically does. But for now, it gives us a chance to speculate.

So, when will Pujols finally join the gaggle of players who have knocked a ball over the fence? Make your guess in the comments section, and we'll see who comes closest to predicting the date Albert Pujols' homerless drought died.

I'm going with Saturday, May 5, against Toronto's Kyle Drabek (though tonight's match-up against Liam Hendricks—WHO?—is enticing).
Posted by: Greg Simons

February 16, 2012

Gary Carter career highlights

The baseball world learned Thursday the sad news of the passing of baseball Hall of Famer Gary Carter. The former catcher was only 53 years old when brain cancer claimed him.

Any time a person dies it is first and foremost a personal tragedy. Others can eulogize the man far better than I can. What I can do is provide a retrospective to his career. This is something I’ve done in the past here at THT when someone passes on.

Below is a list of Gary Carter’s career highlights. The list includes the greatest and most memorable games he participated in, as well as his personal best and worst moments. Also included are some odd or unusual or memorable moments he happened to be on hand for.

In chronological order:
Click for more...

Posted by: Chris Jaffe

September 16, 2011

Revisiting the Napoli-Wells three-way trade

After Rangers catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli collected two more hits to raise his average to .312, it brought me back to what turned out to be a relatively lopsided three-way trade.

The original purpose of the deal was for Toronto to get rid of Vernon Wells' contract, sending him to the Angels for Napoli and Juan Rivera, who was later designated for assignment and shipped to the Dodgers. With J.P. Arencibia seen as their future at catcher, the Blue Jays sent Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco, who turned out to be the Jays' closer for a decent stretch this season.

I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the players in this trade, which was really two separate deals, with a nifty comparison graphic.

 
	                PA	 Slash Line	HR	RBI	 R	 WAR	   
Mike Napoli, Rangers	392	.312/.411/.613	26	67	67	 5.0	   
Vernon Wells, Angels	478	.218/.251/.399	21	56	56	-0.3	   
Juan Rivera, TOR/LAD	473	.260/.321/.381	9	62	40	 0.7	 

 
                              Innings 	Record/ERA/SV   WHIP    K/9	WAR	   
Frank Francisco, Blue Jays	47.2	1-4, 3.78, 15	1.36	9.44	0.7		 

Despite Wells having $86 million left on his contract at the time of the trade and Anaheim being left to start a light-hitting, defensive-minded catcher in Jeff Mathis, the Angels decided it would be best to acquire Wells and deal the power-hitting Napoli, coming off a 26-home run season, to the Blue Jays. Having led baseball in team home runs the season before, it was understandable that Toronto would trade Napoli to Texas for some relief help.

But the clear, obvious winners in the trade were the Rangers. Napoli has given them yet another power-hitting addition to their scary-potent offense, while Wells has proven that he will be a past-his-prime toxic contract for the Angels for years to come. Who would have thought that trading Napoli to Toronto would have drastically changed the landscape of the AL West race?
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

June 23, 2011

Taking one for the team and victory

When the Mets' Justin Turner dug in as a Brad Ziegler pitch violated his personal space, the home town fans got to celebrate a 3-2 victory over the Oakland nine*. Since this happened in the media mecca that is New York, it was called unusual.

* We can call them that, since they are playing in the National League with no DH. right. What, they used relievers in the game? I don't care. I like the sound of it.

Unusual? I happens about once a year. According to the play-by-play data from Retrosheet, 50 times since 1950 a game has ended with a bases loaded hit by pitch. Extra inning games account for 27 of those games. Game-ending balks and game-ending bases loaded triples are unusual. This, not so much.

Ziegler should not be upset, though. He joins a group of 49 pitchers who have ended a game by hitting the batter. Yep, somebody has done it twice.

Randy Moffitt, collect your prize!

Aug. 26, 1972: Moffitt came on to start the 10th inning of a 9-9 game. After two singles, he got a strikeout and then intentionally walked Ron Santo to load the bases*. Moffitt then hit Joe Pepitone, allowing Jose Cardenal to score the 10thand final run. CUBS WIN! CUBS WIN!

* There were men at first and third. This tactic baffles me.

May 20, 1978: Moffitt at least didn't load the bases this time. Gary Lavelle came in at the top of the ninth inning of a 2-2 tie between the Dodgers and the Giants. After a double, an intentional walk, a sacrifice bunt, and another intentional walk, Lavelle handed Moffitt a bases loaded and one out situation. Bill Russell took one for the team and Billy North scored the winning run.

Posted by: Mat Kovach


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