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May 07, 2012

Ubaldo Jimenez: A quick mechanics review

In my earlier analysis of Ubaldo Jimenez's mechanics, I noted that his initial separation from the glove was extremely early, terminating momentum and reducing athleticism out of the glove with his pitching arm. However, people said that his velocity was up in his start on Sunday against the Texas Ranges and Yu Darvish, and a few readers asked me to take a look into his mechanics. I quickly cut the video and put it up against the 2010 and older 2012 clips to take a look:



The newest clip is on the left, the Rockies (2010) clip is in the middle, and the earlier 2012 clip is on the right. Here's the important part slowed down:



(You can use a free browser plug-in like GIF Scrubber for Chrome to step through these images frame-by-frame or slow it down even further.)

If you can't tell, there's a pretty big difference in his pitching arm action between Sunday's game and the one prior to that, and the results showed it on that pitch, registering at 95 mph on the stadium gun.

Ryan from Let's Go Tribe said that Ubaldo's average four-seam fastball velocity was 94.7 mph, but the Brooks Baseball PITCHf/x tool disagrees, saying Ubaldo came in at 92.37 mph, not much different than his start on May 1, where he was averaging 92.07 mph with the same pitch. (Texas Leaguers agrees with these velocity readings for Ubaldo's May 1 and his May 6 starts.)

Since his average fastball velocity was similar but the arm actions were so different on the 91 and 95 mph fastballs, it's clear that the real problem is consistency in his delivery. Ubaldo's main problem is still the early hand break (with secondary thought to how he uses the front shoulder and glove arm), and while it's encouraging to see fastballs touch 95 mph, his arm action isn't yet as efficient or athletic as it was when he was in Colorado. The closer he gets to optimizing his arm action and remaining consistent with it, the better results you'll see with not only his fastball velocity, but his overall command and control.
Posted by: Kyle Boddy

January 23, 2012

Carmona points out an MLB inequity

Goodbye Fausto! Hello Roberto!

As reported last week, 28-year-old Fausto Carmona is Roberto Hernandez Heredia and perhaps 31 years old.

There are implications here for Carmona-Heredia, for the Indians and, most importantly, for professional baseball and the uneven way it deals with international players.

Since being released on bail, The Sinkerballer Formally Known as Fausto has been apologetic but tight-lipped. He reportedly paid for a false identity that may have incorrectly represented his age. He may have been making periodic payments to maintain the false identity. He eventually balked at paying and somebody talked, leading to his arrest.

He is not the first Latin-American player to take this route. (Last year's most publicized example was Leo Nunez.)

So Heredia lied. But did he do anything wrong to the game of baseball? Does lying about your age and name affect anything about playing the game?

It does not.

While the lies are certainly deplorable, they do not affect the player's ability on the field. People will say that, because his age is uncertain, it could be advantageous for him to have people think he is younger. It could lead to larger bonuses and salaries. He’ll appear more successful since his ability will be compared to that of players younger than him.

But these are issue of deceit based on the current economic model and do not affect the play on the field.

If the same player was actually three years YOUNGER, would we be willing to rectify the situation financially? What happened, as before, is a player found a way to take advantage of the economic system in baseball. For him to be successful, he still had to demonstrate ability and skill.

In doing so, he allegedly broke laws in at least two countries* but he never de-skilled the game. While the misreported younger age would have been helpful during his development, the lying did not give him specific extra ability, or his ability to ignore Lake Erie Midges that Joba Chamberlain could not. Carmona’s lies do not hurt the on-field play of baseball.

* I have no idea if Canada would say anything about a player such as Carmona entering the country with false paperwork. I’m not even sure Canada would prosecute, but I am fairly certain that it is against Canadian law.

When looking at a situation like Carmona’s, I look directly at those running Major League Baseball and the teams. Lying about one’s identity is so advantageous for a specific set of players that it outweighs the risk of punishment. Instead of demonizing players like Carmona and Nunez, it is time to look at the system.

In Japan, younger players are able to develop in a system that gives them the ability to play in their homeland with the possibility of moving to the major leagues in America. In Latin America, players feel the need to break the law to be part of the system. So in one week, Yu Darvish, who has never pitched in even the minor leagues in America, got a $60 million contract after a team paid $51.7 million for the right to give him that contract. During that same week, we learned that, once again a player lied about his identity in an effort to get a portion of that amount of money.

In the end, both players will succeed or fail based on what they do on the field. How they got the opportunity doesn’t affect their ability on the field.

Major League Baseball needs to address the differences. If baseball officials are going to continue to encourage teams to deal individually with international players, they need to address the extreme differences in the system. It is not an easy task. How can baseball expect players not to take the route of Carmona and Nunez when the Darvish situation points out the inequity?

As for the Indians:

While Carmona has not lived up to the promise he flashed in 2007, he has shown, when healthy, to be able to provide a decent set of 30-plus starts and 200-plus innings each year.

In conjunction with this news, it appears the Indians finally pulled the trigger on obtaining Kevin Slowey. The Indians have been interested in him anyway, so this was not in direct relation to Carmona’s issues, but the trade was probably hastened. Carmona will likely end up on the restricted list, leaving the Indians with a hole in the rotation but with an extra $7 million. The Indians gave up Zach Putman, a young pitcher who may have competed for a bullpen position this year.

The Indians have other options for the rotation. David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez will be among those who compete with Slowey for spots behind Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin and Derek Lowe. In the end, the Indians' depth should be able to cover for Carmona's absence with limited hardship.
Posted by: Mat Kovach

Career highlights: Orlando Cabrera

A fewdays ago, longtime shortstop Orlando Cabrera announced he’s retiring from baseball after 15 seasons.

When news like this happens, it’s natural to look back on a player’s career, and for me that means putting together a list of career highlights. This list includes the greatest and most memorable games Cabrera played in, his personal bests (and some worsts), as well as some oddities he was on hand for and great moments by other players that occurred in games in which he participated.


Cabrera in his element - fielding the ball.

Basically, it’s a list of Orlando Cabrera’s best “I was there for that game.” Here they are, in order:

Click for more...

Posted by: Chris Jaffe

January 14, 2012

Is there an asterisk in Brandon’s future?

Doing a little research in preparation for doing the comments on San Francisco Giants players in this year's THT Forecasts (yes, Greg, I will make the deadline!), I stumbled across a nugget of very interesting trivia.

Brandon Belt put together the following batting line in his partial major league season with the Giants in 2011:

     G    PA    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
    63   209   187    21    42     6     1     9    18    20    57  .225  .306  .412  .718

And another player in a partial major league season from many years ago put up this line:

     G    PA    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
    51   202   182    26    41     5     1     9    27    17    33  .225  .287  .412  .699

Belt's was about as close to an exact replica of the earlier one as practically possible.

Do you know who that second player was?
Click for more...

Posted by: Steve Treder

September 02, 2011

September playoff hopefuls

Chicago White Sox

Games back: 5.5
Games remaining: 28
Playoff odds: 12 percent

Today the White Sox begin a three-game series against the first-place Detroit Tigers. Talk has centered on A.J. Pierzynski returning from a brief minor league rehab assignment after fracturing his wrist in early August. Pierzynski doesn't have much history when it comes to injuries, but one would have to assume that a loss of power is likely.

Rookie catcher Tyler Flowers has improved enough defensively to catch the eye of manager Ozzie Guillen, but his atrocious strikeout rate has finally caught up with him. Already considered a strikeout machine, Flowers has fanned at a rate of 30.7 percent. Over the past few weeks, his high BABIP has also taken a tumble while his walk rate has been cut in half to 7.3 percent.

Getting Pierzynski’s contact rate back in the lineup should help, especially near the bottom of the order where strikeouts have become frequent.

In his last start, Jake Peavy struggled with his velocity and was knocked around a few days ago by the Twins. Peavy did mention having some health issues after that failed appearance. Philip Humber is set to return, and his presence will be needed if Peavy is set to miss any time.

The White Sox were able to claw their way back into the race after winning five out of six against the Mariners and Twins. The upcoming three-game series on the road against the Tigers will be important to see where this team stands.

Cleveland Indians

Games back: 5.5
Games remaining: 28
Playoff odds: 7.3 percent

The Indians have gotten the worst of it from the injury front. Shin-Soo Choo’s lost season could be over as a strained oblique could cost him most of this month. Jason Kipnis is dealing with injuries to his hamstring and oblique. Michael Brantley is out until next season after wrist surgery. Starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Carlos Carrasco are dealing with elbow issues, and return dates for Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner remain iffy.

On the bright side, Jeanmar Gomez had a promising start earlier this week. His location looked good, and he was able to keep the ball on the ground. Usually organizations don’t like to push their young pitching prospects at this point of the season, but they may have no choice.

The Indians have the good fortune of beginning a three-game series against the Royals in Kansas City. So far this season, the team has been successful against KC, winning 10 out of 15. After that, the Indians get their chance to arm-wrestle the Tigers for three games at home. A lot of variance could occur in six games, but the key injuries to this team should prove to be too much for the remainder of this season.

Los Angeles Angels

Games back: 3.5
Games remaining: 25
Playoff odds: 15.9 percent

The Angels are looking legitimate, especially with Ervin Santana enjoying a solid second half. Santana doesn’t have the same velocity he once had in 2008, but his command has been improving towards previous levels. He should be a very solid number three starter behind Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The Angels have been light offensively, but with Peter Bourjos threatening to finish strong and Mike Trout showing he is a better option than Vernon Wells, the right alchemy could be in place for an offensive run.

The schedule should be fairly easy for the Angels during the first week and a half as they face the Twins and Mariners at home. On the other hand, the first-place Texas Rangers have the misfortune of having to face the Red Sox and the Rays on the road. This could turn into a very tight race by next weekend.

San Francisco Giants

Games back: 6
Games remaining: 25
Playoff odds: 4.6 percent

Since the Division Series was first played in 1995, only two teams have come back after being down by six games on the first of September. In 2006, the Minnesota Twins were six games back from the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers. The Twins would go on to win 19 of their remaining 29 games while the Tigers were pushed into a wild card berth by only winning 11 of their final 27 games.

The second time happened in the NL West in 2007 when the Colorado Rockies were down six games from a wild card spot. The Rockies won 21 of their 28 remaining games to force a one-game playoff with the San Diego Padres. As you may have heard, the Rockies won that game, and we have been saddled with the term “Rocktober” ever since.

The Giants don’t have as many games to pull off a miraculous run, but they do get a chance to face the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks at home beginning tonight for three games.

Even with Carlos Beltran fully healthy and hitting the ball like he did before being dealt at the trade deadline, it’s very hard to see an offense as anemic as the Giants winning the necessary 18 or 19 games needed. A six-game deficit is a lot to make up in only 25 games.

Assuming the D'backs stay true to form and follow up their nine-game winning streak with another multiple-game losing streak and only win 45 percent of their games, it still would prove too tall of an order for a team that has averaged fewer than three-and-a-half runs per game.

St. Louis Cardinals

Games back: 7.5
Games remaining: 25
Playoff odds: 4.3 percent

After sweeping the first-place Milwaukee Brewers yesterday, the deficit became more manageable, but with only 25 games remaining, a lot has to go right for the Cardinals, and a lot has to go wrong for the Brewers.

The Cardinals have the benefit of playing the most home games among all playoff hopefuls this month. It also must be mentioned that no team has ever made the playoffs since the divisions were expanded after being down eight-and-a-half games at the start of September. The current record holder is the Seattle Mariners, who found themselves down six-and-a-half games, only to win 19 of their remaining 28 games to take first place from the Angels—and all 28 of those games were needed.

On the flip side, the Brewers also have 25 games left, but 12 of them are against the Cubs, Astros and Pirates, against whom the team has a win-loss record of 28-9 this season.

Posted by: Vince Caramela


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