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June 27, 2011

Quiz results: Mauer’s health

Last week I asked all of you to take a SWAG at how many of the remaining years in Joe Mauer's eight-year, $184 million pact would be healthy ones, and here is what you said:

Healthy Mauer seasons     Percentage
Zero                            2.7%
1-2                            17.8%
3-4                            39.7%
5-6                            34.2%
Seven                           5.5%

The absolute pessimists were small in number, with under three percent of you saying Mauer's healthy days are done, though over 20 percent total said he's have no more than two injury-free seasons in the next seven.

The plurality went with the middle-of-the-road choices of 3-4 years, which seems about right for an oft-injured catcher heading into his 30s.

It's good to see some optimism expressed by the roughly 40 percent of voters who foresee five or more healthy campaigns from one of Minnesota's favorite sons. (Or maybe Aaron Gleeman stuffed the ballot box.) I'd like to think just about any baseball fan, regardless of team affiliation, would hope to see as many healthy years as possible from such a talented player, but hoping and SWAGging are two different things.

Finally, sorry for not posting these results last Friday as promised. Sometimes life gets in the way of baseball.
Posted by: Greg Simons

June 21, 2011

What happens with Pujols and the Cardinals now?

Albert Pujols has proven to be a dependable star, playing in 140-plus games every year since 2001. In addition to showing up nearly every game, he has proven very resistant to slumps.

This year, Albert started the year stuck in a prolonged, for him, slump, finally breaking out in June. They he suffering the first major injury of his career, reported as a non-displaced forearm fracture that will keep him off the field of four to six weeks.

This is not the first time Pujols has hit the disabled listed or had a lingering injury.

He did have offseason surgery on his right elbow in October, 2009, with stints on the disabled list in 2006 and 2008 for muscle strains. Pujols has, at times, missed a game because of various minor aliments. He also has suffered with chronic plantar fasciitis in his left heel.

So, while not always in perfect health, he has played through his injuries and been one of the best players in the league during that time.

What does this mean for Pujols?

After his collision with Wilson Betemit, there was quite a bit that took place. You could see Pujols’ wrist, arm and shoulder get bent back. While reacting to the pain, Pujols grabbed his wrist and at one point pointed towards his shoulder. He also was holding his wrist, making it appear there was some instability in the wrist.

After imaging, it was reported Pujols had a non-displaced fracture of the radius, near the wrist. Non-displaced means, basically, it cracked, but the bones are still aligned. Surgery is not needed. I’m still doubtful this is the whole story. Based on the type of injury, receiving enough trauma to break a bone near the wrist and not cause an injury to the remaining complex parts of the wrist seems unlikely.

If this truly is the case, then Pujols should be able to come back fairly quickly with little impact. The wrist takes a good part of the torque generated in a baseball swing. If there is additional damage to the wrist, Pujols’ returned could be delayed, and he could have a drop in his power numbers until the wrist completely heals.

Pujols may come back within the reported time frame, but you’ll want to watch his power numbers. He was hitting like the old Albert in June, but he also had grounded into 17 double plays. An Albert with a drop in his power may hit fewer line drives and more ground balls.

How Pujols comes back is also going to affect his pending free agency. While he has proven to be resilient with injuries, you now have a 31-year-old player who has finally missed significant time to an injury. If you look at Baseball References Similarity Score, number one right now is Albert Belle. This can be a scary comparison* if you want to sign him to a long-term contract.

* It also reminds you how good Belle was at one time. But a lot of those Indians during that period get forgotten, probably because the team never won a World Series. In fact, if you look at Kenny Lofton, he simply doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

Where does this leaves the Cardinals?

The Cardinals are not in that bad a situation. As a right fielder, Lance Berkman makes a heck of a first baseman. Jon Jay can cover for Berkman in right field. While Berkman is not quite as skilled defensively at first base as Pujols, it is not a large drop-off, and Jay is an improvement in right over Berkman.

The Cardinals will not have a huge defensive dropoff and may, in fact, have a slightly better overall defense.

Offensively, you can’t replace Pujols long term, The Cardinals may need to replace only about 180 at-bats (about 35 percent of the season). Jay has produced a WAR* or 0.9 over 179 AB this year, Pujols 2.3 over 318 AB, which means Pujols, this season, was about one win better than Jay.

** WAR numbers taken from Fangraphs

The Cardinals will miss about two wins during this short period of time.

Two wins isn’t bad, but with the Brewers and Reds within three games of the Cardinals, this injury will tighten up the division race.

Losing Pujols is going to put pressure on players to step up, and Tony LaRussa is going to have a juggle the lineup a bit. St. Louis should be able to keep pace in a tight NL Central race. The larger issue is whether the full extend of the injury is being made public. If not, the forecast gets a worse for the Redbirds.

I would watch if the Cardinals look to make a move. If they try to bring in somebody to add some offensive support, it could indicate that more is wrong that just a fractured forearm.

Posted by: Mat Kovach

June 20, 2011

Pop quiz: Mauer’s health

Signing any player to a long-term deal is a roll of the dice.

Signing a catcher to an eight-year, $184 million contract is playing Russian roulette.

Doing so in a market that isn't among the nation's largest is akin to playing the lottery and counting on winning to fund your lavish indulgences.

The mid-market Minnesota Twins inked Joe Mauer to that mega-deal mentioned above in March, 2010, with the contract terms kicking in this season. While Mauer had appeared in over 130 games in five of the last six seasons (and 109 in the sixth), won an MVP award the season before signing his huge contract and has been widely considered the best catcher in the game the last several years, the Twins still took on a significant amount of risk.

Mauer has had knee injuries and other bumps and bruises throughout his career. And the fact that he's a catcher comes with inherently-greater injury risks, as Buster Posey can attest.

The Twins are on the hook for the full $184 million, that's indisputable. But the question is, how much of that investment will the team recoup via Mauer's performance? Will he justify the deal, as so rarely happens with stratospheric free agent contracts? Or will he be yet another data point that these long-term pacts often hamstring teams, saddling them with injured and/or underperforming players in the later years?

Given we're talking about performance through 2018, let's examine the subject in a broad-based manner by asking:

{exp:freeform:form form_name="Mauer_healthy_seasons"prevent_duplicate_on="ip_address" return="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/forms/thanks/"}

How many healthy seasons will Joe Mauer have in his eight-year deal?

Zero: Life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.
1 - 2: Healthy? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
3 - 4: It just so happens that your friend here is only mostly dead.
5 - 6: If you haven't got your health, then you haven't got anything.
Seven: Think it'll work? It would take a miracle.

{/exp:freeform:form}

I'll be back with the results Friday. Until then, have fun storming the castle!

Posted by: Greg Simons

June 08, 2011

Busterless in San Francisco

Sometimes, when a star player goes down with an injury, a rookie or otherwise obscure substitute steps in and saves the day. Wally Pipp's headache provided Lou Gehrig's opportunity. When one door closes, so they say, another opens.

Sometimes. But not always. And apparently not, at least so far, in San Francisco as the 2011 Giants deal with replacing the production of injured catcher Buster Posey.
Click for more...

Posted by: Steve Treder

May 05, 2011

Broxton’s dip

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweeted an rather unsurprising update on the condition of Jonathan Broxton's right elbow this week:

Jonathon Broxton has been shut down with elbow pain, Don Mattingly said.

Gurnick's tweet was about as rich and informative as the eggatar he uses on twitter.

I guess anyone paying attention saw this coming. Check out Broxton's velocity, going back to 2007. These values are not cleaned-up for weather or park effects, but the alignment with reality alleviates that problem.



Place your friendly bets on what the MRI results will show.
Posted by: Harry Pavlidis


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