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January 17, 2012

Some thoughts on Moscoso

Part of the Rockies’ return package for Seth Smith is right-hander Guillermo Moscoso, who made 21 starts for the Athletics in 2011. Moscoso had some cups-of-coffee with the Rangers as a reliever in 2009 and 2010, but last year was the first time we got a good look (128 innings) at what Moscoso he has to offer.

In short, he has a decent fastball and underwhelming off-speed pitches. He’ll throw his four-seamer a little under 91, backing it up with a high-70s changeup and slurvey curveball (the change goes against lefties, while batters from both sides will see his curve). At the end of July, Moscoco brought a mid-80s cutter into his repertoire as another weapon against righties (Dan Lependorf made note of this last summer).

Moscoso’s ERA last year was a very solid 3.38, but I’m lukewarm on his chances of replicating that mark. Over his career he has shown decent control (3.1 walks and hit batsmen per 9 innings), an unspectacular strikeout rate (5.6 strikeouts per 9), and an extreme flyball tendency (career ground ball rate of around 25%). His fastball has generated a swing-and-miss on nearly 17 percent of swings; that rate is league-average for four-seamers. However, none of his offspeed pitches have a rate over 21 percent, leaving him without a reliable out-pitch. He doesn’t really have anything that stays on the ground either:

pitch       x     gb%
Fastball    222   16%
Curveball   103   41%
Changeup    44    26%
Cutter      13    38%

Moscoso’s batting average on contacted pitches was .248 last year, lowest in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings. It’s fair to attribute some of this to the nature of Oakland Coliseum. As Greg Rybarczyk made note of in the 2011 THT Annual, Oakland’s colder-than-average temperatures help prevent home runs, and the park’s large amount of foul territory gets pitchers a lot of extra outs on balls hit into the air.

What does this mean for Moscoso’s new team? Coors Field is a notorious slugger park and that does not fit Moscoso’s profile very well at all. The Rockies have plenty of starting pitchers (including Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Jason Hammel, Drew Pomeranz, Kevin Slowey, Tyler Chatwood, and the other player in the Smith deal, Josh Outman), so I doubt Moscoso even gets a look in the rotation at this point.

Two notes – a) pitch IDs are by Harry Pavlidis (thank you, Harry); b) my dataset unfortunately is missing Moscoso’s last three 2011 starts, so the numbers in this article reflect his previous outings.

Posted by: Lucas Apostoleris

November 14, 2011

Charlie Lea career highlights

Over the weekend, former Expos/Twins pitcher Charlie Lea died at the rather young age of 54. This is jolting news, largely because the former Expos hurler was so young. It’s extra jolting on a personal note. For me, Lea was the first young pitcher I can remember who flamed out.

Oh, technically there were others, but Lea was the guy that stuck out in my mind. I remember he was really good when young, played in an All-Star Game, and then crashed. Others who crashed back then didn’t register with me. For example, I remember when Richard Dotson was really good, and then remember when he fell apart, but I didn’t realize he was that young. I knew Lea was young.

Now Lea is gone.

I can’t speak to what sort of person he was, but I can go over his career a little bit. Below are his career highlights. It’s something I often do here at THT when a player retires, dies, or goes into Cooperstown. (Basically, it’s what I do when it’s time for a retrospective of an individual).

Below are Lea’s highlights, lowlights, and memorable moments.
Click for more...

Posted by: Chris Jaffe

October 24, 2011

Struggling Wilson faces Game Five pressure

With the World Series now tied at two games apiece after Derek Holland's near-complete game gem, the Series shifts to a crucial Game Five between the two teams' nominal aces. While Chris Carpenter has lived up to that name so far in the postseason, especially in his complete game shutout of Philadelphia in the deciding Game Five of the NLDS, Texas' C.J. Wilson has struggled, to say the least.

Wilson issued six walks in 5.2 innings in the Rangers' 3-2 Game One loss to St. Louis, which spoiled an otherwise decent start. He has actually thrown a higher percentage of strikes than Carpenter, but Wilson's alarming walk rate (14 in 21.1 postseason innings) and his six home runs allowed have doomed his ERA and WHIP in the playoffs.

	         IP	Record  ERA	WHIP	Home runs	Strike %
C. Carpenter      23	3-0   3.52	1.13	2	        57.4
C.J. Wilson	  21.1	0-3   7.17	1.82	6	        60.1

In a ballpark like Texas', the most hitter- and home run-friendly park this season by a sizeable margin according to ESPN's Park Factor, Wilson's inability to keep balls in the yard against a powerful Cardinals offense could doom the Rangers to a second consecutive World Series defeat. With potentially two games coming from Busch Stadium on Wednesday and Thursday, Wilson could be facing the most pressure-packed start of any pitcher this season. His postseason record to date does not look good for Texas' chances.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 11, 2011

LCS thoughts & theories 10/11

Bullpen battle taken by Texas

After Texas starter Derek Holland was pulled with two outs in the third inning of Monday's ALCS game two, Rangers manager Ron Washington had to put his bullpen into action way earlier than he ever would have anticipated. Then the game went into extra innings, and the Rangers relief corps remained nearly perfect.

Texas' bullpen threw 8.1 scoreless innings, and they were rewarded by Nelson Cruz's 11th-inning grand slam that gave the Rangers a 7-3 win over Detroit and a 2-0 series lead going back to the Motor City. The Tigers' bullpen was perfect before Ryan Perry imploded in the 11th, but the battle of the bullpens has been a huge reason why Texas has taken the first two games at home in Arlington.

 
	         IP	Record   ERA	WHIP	 K/9	   
Texas Bullpen	12.2	  2-0   0.00	0.65	11.8	   
Detroit Bullpen	 8.0	  0-1   4.50	1.00	 4.5	 

With the next games shifting over to Comerica Park, the Rangers relievers have a lot to live up to if they want to remain as close to flawless as possible. For the Tigers, the margin of error is close to none, which was proven with one swing of the bat Monday night.

Brewers starters unstable sans Gallardo

Milwaukee survived the NLDS against Arizona by winning all three of its home games, but the Cardinals offense has proven not as kind to the Brewers at Miller Park as the Diamondback hitters were.

Shaun Marcum allowed five runs in four innings in the Brewers' 12-3 loss to St. Louis in Game Two of the NLCS and continued the trend of Milwaukee starters not named Yovani Gallardo stumbling and faltering in the postseason. Zack Greinke struggled in the team's Game One win, and Randy Wolf was abysmal in the Division Series in Phoenix. Let's see how extreme the splits are between Gallardo and the rest of the Brewers rotation.

	                 IP	Record   ERA	WHIP	 K/9	   
Yovani Gallardo	        14.0	  1-0   1.29	0.92	9.00	   
MIL SP w/o Gallardo	18.2	  1-2   9.53	2.07	7.54	 

Gallardo can only pitch two more games in this League Championship Series, so Ron Roenicke will need at least one of his other starters to perform up to team standards and fulfill this team's rightfully lofty expectations.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 10, 2011

Brewers score big for Greinke

After Milwaukee’s 9-6 win over archrival St. Louis in Sunday’s Game One of the NLCS, Zack Greinke claimed another win at home for the Brewers. In fact, when Greinke has started at home, the Brewers are a remarkable 17-0. Greinke, including the postseason, is 12-0 with a 3.68 ERA in his 17 starts (43 earned runs in 105 innings) this season at Miller Park.

Greinke has, frankly, been awful so far in the postseason if you strictly look at things from an ERA standpoint. He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his 11 postseason innings, but his offense bailed him out in Game Two of the Division Deries against Arizona and Sunday against the Cardinals. For the Brewers, this has been a season-long trend of the offense scoring at an abnormally high rate for Greinke.

                     Games  Team record Runs	Runs per game	   
Greinke's home starts	17	17-0	98	5.76	   
Every Milwaukee game	168	100-68	752	4.48	 

So as you can see, Milwaukee has scored more than one and a quarter more runs per game for Greinke at home than they would for any other pitcher. The disparity would be even larger if you take those 17 Greinke games at home from the Bredwers' 168-game total. I don’t know what it is about the Brewers’ offense playing at its best when Greinke wears the home whites, but it could be a trend that helps Milwaukee win its first world championship.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung


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