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February 10, 2012
THT Essentials: Now AvailableThe Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
THT's latest bookThird Base: The Crossroads is THT's new e-book, available for $3.99 from the Kindle store. The good news is that anyone can read a Kindle book, even on a PC. So enjoy the best from THT in a new format.![]()
Lucas Apostoleris
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Pitching Articles
Following are the one hundred most recent articles for the category
Pitching
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02/10/2012: Recapping a swap-filled winterby Jeff Moore02/10/2012: A baseball card mystery: Ontiveros and Schmidtby Bruce Markusen02/10/2012: A dynasty ranking follow-upby Josh Shepardson02/09/2012: Forecasting Princeby Myron Logan02/09/2012: The Homestead exemption act of 1992by Frank Jackson02/09/2012: Fun with numbersby Nick Fleder02/08/2012: Making the leap upby Derek Ambrosino02/08/2012: Against replay in baseballby David Wade02/08/2012: BOB: Oakland dealt setback in pursuit to keep Athleticsby Brian Borawski02/08/2012: The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 10: 1966-67)by Steve Treder02/08/2012: 20,000 days since Herb Score’s injuryby Chris Jaffe02/07/2012: A baseball card mystery: Bill Sudakis and the strange lightby Bruce Markusen02/07/2012: 20,000 days since Hank Aaron’s worst gameby Chris Jaffe02/07/2012: Did you know we had a mock draft?by Brad Johnson02/07/2012: State of the system - Arizona Diamondbacksby Jeff Moore02/07/2012: Rockies building a troubling rotationby Troy Patterson02/07/2012: Money and winsby Dave Studeman02/06/2012: Super at the right timeby Joe Distelheim02/06/2012: Let there be news - Volume 7by Brad Johnson02/06/2012: 10 things I didn’t know about one-hittersby Chris Jaffe02/06/2012: This week in (fantasy) baseball: 1/30-2/5by Karl de Vries02/06/2012: Would the Nationals consider holding back Strasburg?by Brad Johnson02/03/2012: Card Corner: 1972 Topps—Bob Vealeby Bruce Markusen02/03/2012: Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 2)by Jeffrey Gross02/03/2012: 10,000 days: 500th homer for Mr. Octoberby Chris Jaffe02/02/2012: Edwin Jackson finally signsby Matt Filippi02/02/2012: THT Forecasts - 2012 fantasy price guidesby Greg Tamer02/02/2012: The all-month team: Februaryby Richard Barbieri02/02/2012: We will, we will (mock) youby Nick Fleder02/02/2012: How are wins, attendance and payroll all related?by Dan Lependorf02/01/2012: Are you mocking me?by Derek Ambrosino02/01/2012: Why Oliver Loves Yuby Brian Cartwright02/01/2012: Reflections after a long offseasonby Chris Lund02/01/2012: The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 9: 1965-66)by Steve Treder01/31/2012: A baseball card mystery: Ken Holtzman’s 1974 Topps cardby Bruce Markusen01/31/2012: The new golden age of catchingby Troy Patterson01/31/2012: 10,000 days since Carlton becomes Phillies win leaderby Chris Jaffe01/31/2012: The Verdict: Hardball Times mock draft analysisby Michael Stein01/30/2012: Let there be news - Volume 6by Brad Johnson01/30/2012: Juan Pierre, Domonic Brown, and plansby Brad Johnson01/30/2012: Dave Duncan, the 1982 Mariners and lost gloryby Paul Francis Sullivan01/30/2012: This week in (fantasy) baseballby Karl de Vries01/30/2012: What was I thinking?by Ben Pritchett01/28/2012: THT mock draft 2012by Ben Pritchett01/27/2012: Outfield assist of another kindby Bojan Koprivica01/27/2012: In the old days, the game was more excitingby Max Marchi01/27/2012: Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 1)by Jeffrey Gross01/27/2012: 30th anniversary: The Ryne Sandberg tradeby Chris Jaffe01/27/2012: Cooperstown Confidential: thinking about Al Smithby Bruce Markusen01/26/2012: Closer watchby Paul Singman01/26/2012: Jack Morris: the winningest pitcher of the 1980sby Bobby Mueller01/26/2012: Marshall McDougall’s greatest gameby Frank Jackson01/26/2012: Players I’ll avoid this yearby Dave Shovein01/25/2012: It’s THT Dispatchby Dave Studeman01/25/2012: THT Forecasts - 2012 Oliver projected-WAR starting lineupby Greg Tamer01/25/2012: Another Fielder for Detroitby THT Staff01/25/2012: AL West: offseason check-inby David Wade01/25/2012: Ask Oliverby Derek Ambrosino01/25/2012: BOB: Astros ponder new lookby Brian Borawski01/25/2012: 40th anniversary: Dave Winfield and the NCAA basket-brawlby Chris Jaffe01/24/2012: Fast goes Astroby Dave Studeman01/24/2012: The greatest eye in baseballby Troy Patterson01/24/2012: A baseball card mystery: Bob Didier and Cleon Jonesby Bruce Markusen01/24/2012: 20,000 days since the Phillies integrateby Chris Jaffe01/24/2012: The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 8: 1964-65)by Steve Treder01/23/2012: Carmona points out an MLB inequityby Mat Kovach01/23/2012: Career highlights: Orlando Cabreraby Chris Jaffe01/23/2012: Players I like more than you doby Ben Pritchett01/23/2012: Let there be news - Volume 5by Brad Johnson01/23/2012: Ten least-likely guys to break up a no-hitterby Chris Jaffe01/22/2012: Craig Counsell career highlightsby Chris Jaffe01/20/2012: Thinking big in Big D in 1950by Frank Jackson01/20/2012: Card Corner: 1972 Topps: George Hendrickby Bruce Markusen01/20/2012: The extra 2 percent: A fantasy market inefficencyby Josh Shepardson01/19/2012: Evaluating a strange offseason in San Diegoby Myron Logan01/19/2012: On Edgar Martinezby Richard Barbieri01/19/2012: Searching for sleepersby Nick Fleder01/18/2012: SABR Analytics Conferenceby Dave Studeman01/18/2012: BOB: Mets owner scores another win in courtby Brian Borawski01/18/2012: Is Jorge Posada toast as a righty hitter?by George Szabo01/18/2012: Can you really play it safe?by Derek Ambrosino01/18/2012: A baseball card mystery: Thurman Munson and who?by Bruce Markusen01/18/2012: 10th anniversary: Randy Winn’s greatest shotby Chris Jaffe01/17/2012: 10,000 days since Buddy Bell walk-off slamby Chris Jaffe01/17/2012: The virtual 1958-68 Giants, Reds, and Cardinals (Part 7: 1963-64)by Steve Treder01/17/2012: Some thoughts on Moscosoby Lucas Apostoleris01/17/2012: The Toronto Blue Jays quirkiest pitching staff since 1994by Chris Lund01/17/2012: The Verdict: snake versus auction draftby Michael Stein01/16/2012: PED injustice and the Hallby Mat Kovach01/16/2012: THT Forecasts: Players’ comments…rollout!by Greg Tamer01/16/2012: Ye believe in me, believe also in Mike Stantonby Ben Pritchett01/16/2012: Let there be news - Volume 4by Brad Johnson01/16/2012: The possible upcoming Cooperstown ballot apocalypseby Chris Jaffe01/16/2012: 10th anniversary: Rangers sign Chan Ho Parkby Chris Jaffe01/14/2012: Is there an asterisk in Brandon’s future?by Steve Treder01/13/2012: The Yankees’ finest hourby Nick Fleder01/13/2012: Fantasy Chat - 1/15/12by Nick Fleder01/13/2012: Cooperstown Confidential: Why Bob Howsam isn’t in the Hall of Fameby Bruce Markusen01/12/2012: On Ryan Madson: Parsing Boras’ commentsby Greg Simons01/12/2012: Dynasty rankings 2012 follow-upby Nick Fleder<< Click here to return to the category list. |
![]() January 17, 2012Some thoughts on MoscosoPart of the Rockies’ return package for Seth Smith is right-hander Guillermo Moscoso, who made 21 starts for the Athletics in 2011. Moscoso had some cups-of-coffee with the Rangers as a reliever in 2009 and 2010, but last year was the first time we got a good look (128 innings) at what Moscoso he has to offer.In short, he has a decent fastball and underwhelming off-speed pitches. He’ll throw his four-seamer a little under 91, backing it up with a high-70s changeup and slurvey curveball (the change goes against lefties, while batters from both sides will see his curve). At the end of July, Moscoco brought a mid-80s cutter into his repertoire as another weapon against righties (Dan Lependorf made note of this last summer). Moscoso’s ERA last year was a very solid 3.38, but I’m lukewarm on his chances of replicating that mark. Over his career he has shown decent control (3.1 walks and hit batsmen per 9 innings), an unspectacular strikeout rate (5.6 strikeouts per 9), and an extreme flyball tendency (career ground ball rate of around 25%). His fastball has generated a swing-and-miss on nearly 17 percent of swings; that rate is league-average for four-seamers. However, none of his offspeed pitches have a rate over 21 percent, leaving him without a reliable out-pitch. He doesn’t really have anything that stays on the ground either: pitch x gb% Fastball 222 16% Curveball 103 41% Changeup 44 26% Cutter 13 38% Moscoso’s batting average on contacted pitches was .248 last year, lowest in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings. It’s fair to attribute some of this to the nature of Oakland Coliseum. As Greg Rybarczyk made note of in the 2011 THT Annual, Oakland’s colder-than-average temperatures help prevent home runs, and the park’s large amount of foul territory gets pitchers a lot of extra outs on balls hit into the air. What does this mean for Moscoso’s new team? Coors Field is a notorious slugger park and that does not fit Moscoso’s profile very well at all. The Rockies have plenty of starting pitchers (including Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Jason Hammel, Drew Pomeranz, Kevin Slowey, Tyler Chatwood, and the other player in the Smith deal, Josh Outman), so I doubt Moscoso even gets a look in the rotation at this point. Two notes – a) pitch IDs are by Harry Pavlidis (thank you, Harry); b) my dataset unfortunately is missing Moscoso’s last three 2011 starts, so the numbers in this article reflect his previous outings. Posted by: Lucas Apostoleris November 14, 2011Charlie Lea career highlightsOver the weekend, former Expos/Twins pitcher Charlie Lea died at the rather young age of 54. This is jolting news, largely because the former Expos hurler was so young. It’s extra jolting on a personal note. For me, Lea was the first young pitcher I can remember who flamed out.Oh, technically there were others, but Lea was the guy that stuck out in my mind. I remember he was really good when young, played in an All-Star Game, and then crashed. Others who crashed back then didn’t register with me. For example, I remember when Richard Dotson was really good, and then remember when he fell apart, but I didn’t realize he was that young. I knew Lea was young. Now Lea is gone. I can’t speak to what sort of person he was, but I can go over his career a little bit. Below are his career highlights. It’s something I often do here at THT when a player retires, dies, or goes into Cooperstown. (Basically, it’s what I do when it’s time for a retrospective of an individual). Below are Lea’s highlights, lowlights, and memorable moments. Click for more... Posted by: Chris Jaffe October 24, 2011Struggling Wilson faces Game Five pressureWith the World Series now tied at two games apiece after Derek Holland's near-complete game gem, the Series shifts to a crucial Game Five between the two teams' nominal aces. While Chris Carpenter has lived up to that name so far in the postseason, especially in his complete game shutout of Philadelphia in the deciding Game Five of the NLDS, Texas' C.J. Wilson has struggled, to say the least.Wilson issued six walks in 5.2 innings in the Rangers' 3-2 Game One loss to St. Louis, which spoiled an otherwise decent start. He has actually thrown a higher percentage of strikes than Carpenter, but Wilson's alarming walk rate (14 in 21.1 postseason innings) and his six home runs allowed have doomed his ERA and WHIP in the playoffs. IP Record ERA WHIP Home runs Strike % C. Carpenter 23 3-0 3.52 1.13 2 57.4 C.J. Wilson 21.1 0-3 7.17 1.82 6 60.1 In a ballpark like Texas', the most hitter- and home run-friendly park this season by a sizeable margin according to ESPN's Park Factor, Wilson's inability to keep balls in the yard against a powerful Cardinals offense could doom the Rangers to a second consecutive World Series defeat. With potentially two games coming from Busch Stadium on Wednesday and Thursday, Wilson could be facing the most pressure-packed start of any pitcher this season. His postseason record to date does not look good for Texas' chances. Posted by: Shlomo Sprung October 11, 2011LCS thoughts & theories 10/11Bullpen battle taken by TexasAfter Texas starter Derek Holland was pulled with two outs in the third inning of Monday's ALCS game two, Rangers manager Ron Washington had to put his bullpen into action way earlier than he ever would have anticipated. Then the game went into extra innings, and the Rangers relief corps remained nearly perfect. Texas' bullpen threw 8.1 scoreless innings, and they were rewarded by Nelson Cruz's 11th-inning grand slam that gave the Rangers a 7-3 win over Detroit and a 2-0 series lead going back to the Motor City. The Tigers' bullpen was perfect before Ryan Perry imploded in the 11th, but the battle of the bullpens has been a huge reason why Texas has taken the first two games at home in Arlington. IP Record ERA WHIP K/9 Texas Bullpen 12.2 2-0 0.00 0.65 11.8 Detroit Bullpen 8.0 0-1 4.50 1.00 4.5 With the next games shifting over to Comerica Park, the Rangers relievers have a lot to live up to if they want to remain as close to flawless as possible. For the Tigers, the margin of error is close to none, which was proven with one swing of the bat Monday night. Brewers starters unstable sans GallardoMilwaukee survived the NLDS against Arizona by winning all three of its home games, but the Cardinals offense has proven not as kind to the Brewers at Miller Park as the Diamondback hitters were. Shaun Marcum allowed five runs in four innings in the Brewers' 12-3 loss to St. Louis in Game Two of the NLCS and continued the trend of Milwaukee starters not named Yovani Gallardo stumbling and faltering in the postseason. Zack Greinke struggled in the team's Game One win, and Randy Wolf was abysmal in the Division Series in Phoenix. Let's see how extreme the splits are between Gallardo and the rest of the Brewers rotation. IP Record ERA WHIP K/9 Yovani Gallardo 14.0 1-0 1.29 0.92 9.00 MIL SP w/o Gallardo 18.2 1-2 9.53 2.07 7.54 Gallardo can only pitch two more games in this League Championship Series, so Ron Roenicke will need at least one of his other starters to perform up to team standards and fulfill this team's rightfully lofty expectations. Posted by: Shlomo Sprung October 10, 2011Brewers score big for GreinkeAfter Milwaukee’s 9-6 win over archrival St. Louis in Sunday’s Game One of the NLCS, Zack Greinke claimed another win at home for the Brewers. In fact, when Greinke has started at home, the Brewers are a remarkable 17-0. Greinke, including the postseason, is 12-0 with a 3.68 ERA in his 17 starts (43 earned runs in 105 innings) this season at Miller Park.Greinke has, frankly, been awful so far in the postseason if you strictly look at things from an ERA standpoint. He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his 11 postseason innings, but his offense bailed him out in Game Two of the Division Deries against Arizona and Sunday against the Cardinals. For the Brewers, this has been a season-long trend of the offense scoring at an abnormally high rate for Greinke.
Games Team record Runs Runs per game
Greinke's home starts 17 17-0 98 5.76
Every Milwaukee game 168 100-68 752 4.48
So as you can see, Milwaukee has scored more than one and a quarter more runs per game for Greinke at home than they would for any other pitcher. The disparity would be even larger if you take those 17 Greinke games at home from the Bredwers' 168-game total. I don’t know what it is about the Brewers’ offense playing at its best when Greinke wears the home whites, but it could be a trend that helps Milwaukee win its first world championship. Posted by: Shlomo Sprung Click here for more THT Notes. | ||||