November 22, 2009

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Players Articles


Following are the one hundred most recent articles for the category Players .

11/19/2009: TUCK! sez: Here come the Halladays

by Tuck

11/18/2009: Out come the freaks

by Geoff Young

11/16/2009: The Babe at Fenway and other home run stories

by John Walsh

11/12/2009: TUCK! sez: Winner gets the centaur paintings?

by Tuck

11/11/2009: Lidge of sighs

by Geoff Young

11/05/2009: TUCK! sez: Fuzzy math

by Tuck

11/04/2009: Players worth remembering, 1925-1946

by Geoff Young

11/04/2009: Get rid of the DLF

by Joe Distelheim

10/15/2009: TUCK! sez: Legendary inve$tment$?

by Tuck

10/08/2009: TUCK! sez: What, me worry?

by Tuck

10/06/2009: Man vs. computer

by David Gassko

10/01/2009: Pick your favorite rookie

by Jeff Sackmann

09/30/2009: Ryan Madson’s deal with the devil

by Dan Novick

09/24/2009: TUCK! sez: Temper, temper (Part 2)

by Tuck

09/23/2009: Yes, but it’s an empty .300

by Geoff Young

09/18/2009: Oh, Hanley!

by Craig Brown

09/11/2009: The extinction of Zito’s hard curve

by Max Marchi

09/10/2009: TUCK! sez: Temper, temper

by Tuck

09/09/2009: When .360 just isn’t good enough

by Geoff Young

09/09/2009: Player Profile: Jonathan Sanchez

by Mike Silver

09/03/2009: TUCK! sez: Media runs on Duncan

by Tuck

09/02/2009: Player Profile: Brett Anderson

by Mike Silver

09/02/2009: Something about Everth

by Geoff Young

08/28/2009: Making their mark

by Craig Brown

08/28/2009: This annotated week in baseball history: Aug. 23-Aug. 29, 2009

by Richard Barbieri

08/27/2009: TUCK sez: Goin’ all Garry Templeton

by Tuck

08/26/2009: Hampton, Zito, Davis

by Geoff Young

08/24/2009: Top 20 second half flops: Nos. 10-1

by Jim Anderson

08/20/2009: Revisiting Bill Hall’s long-term deal

by Jeff Sackmann

08/20/2009: TUCK! sez: Play ball. Please!

by Tuck

08/18/2009: The virtual 1961 Cleveland Indians (Part 2)

by Steve Treder

08/17/2009: Top 20 second-half flops: nos. 11-20

by Jim Anderson

08/14/2009: Marco Scutaro’s little things

by Max Marchi

08/12/2009: Player Profile: My street accident, B.J. Upton

by Mike Silver

08/12/2009: Ten who hit 500

by Geoff Young

08/11/2009: The pieces are coming together

by Paul Singman

08/11/2009: The virtual 1961 Cleveland Indians (Part 1)

by Steve Treder

08/06/2009: TUCK! sez: Roid Sawx

by Tuck

07/30/2009: Picking up the pace

by Dan Turkenkopf

07/30/2009: TUCK! sez: Guess again

by Tuck

07/29/2009: Players worth remembering, 1947-1968

by Geoff Young

07/23/2009: TUCK! sez: Arrgh

by Tuck

07/22/2009: The gentle art of prospect promotion

by Geoff Young

07/15/2009: Players worth remembering, 1969-1989

by Geoff Young

07/09/2009: Fielding stats for college shortstops

by Jeff Sackmann

07/09/2009: TUCK! sez: Bring your own whine and brew

by Tuck

07/08/2009: They might run more if they could walk

by Geoff Young

07/01/2009: Adrian takes a walk

by Geoff Young

06/25/2009: Jenrry Mejia and Other New Prospect Breakdowns

by Matt Hagen

06/25/2009: TUCK! sez: Really didn’t need a crystal ball for that

by Tuck

06/18/2009: Prospect Breakdowns, Notes, and Additions - 6/18

by Matt Hagen

06/17/2009: Two emerging talents

by Geoff Young

06/12/2009: Extreme environments

by Jeff Sackmann

06/12/2009: See the ball, hit the ball

by Craig Brown

06/09/2009: Historic comparables (Volume 1)

by Steve Treder

06/04/2009: A tale of two roles

by Dan Turkenkopf

06/04/2009: TUCK! sez: Just another manic meltdown

by Tuck

06/02/2009: Don McMahon (Part 3)

by Steve Treder

05/28/2009: TUCK! sez: Postively forgotten

by Tuck

05/27/2009: Critics, criticism, Cloninger

by Geoff Young

05/26/2009: Backstopping and roaming wide (Part 3:  1970-2008)

by Steve Treder

05/22/2009: TUCK! sez: Let’s try that again

by Tuck

05/19/2009: Don McMahon (Part 2)

by Steve Treder

05/15/2009: Ryan Zimmerman has arrived

by Craig Brown

05/14/2009: Apprehensive yet Comprehensive: Personal Strategies and Secrets for Dominating Your Keeper League

by Matt Hagen

05/14/2009: TUCK! sez: One for Calcaterra

by Tuck

05/12/2009: Backstopping and roaming wide (Part 2:  1935-1970)

by Steve Treder

05/05/2009: Don McMahon (Part 1)

by Steve Treder

05/05/2009: Fingers pointed

by Paul Singman

04/30/2009: Fingers not pointed

by Paul Singman

04/28/2009: Backstopping and roaming wide (Part 1:  1890-1935)

by Steve Treder

04/22/2009: Once upon a shortstop

by Geoff Young

04/21/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 6:  1954-1955)

by Steve Treder

04/17/2009: A-Rod in the clutch

by John Beamer

04/16/2009: TUCK! sez: Mariner moment

by Tuck

04/14/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 5:  1953-1954)

by Steve Treder

04/09/2009: TUCK! sez: (Still) D-railed

by Tuck

04/08/2009: Book review: Cubs By The Numbers

by Joe Distelheim

04/07/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 4:  1952-1953)

by Steve Treder

04/07/2009: Projecting playing time

by Victor Wang

03/31/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 3:  1951-1952)

by Steve Treder

03/30/2009: 29 players I think the THT projections got wrong

by David Gassko

03/30/2009: Five questions:  San Francisco Giants

by Steve Treder

03/21/2009: TUCK! sez: Mu$t be $aving up for $howing off $oftballpark Village at the All-$tar Game

by Tuck

03/17/2009: Will Vernon Wells be worth the price?

by Dan Turkenkopf

03/17/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 2:  1950-1951)

by Steve Treder

03/13/2009: This annotated week in baseball history: March 8-14, 1984

by Richard Barbieri

03/12/2009: TUCK! sez: But what precious timing

by Tuck

03/10/2009: The Branch Rickey Pirates (Part 1)

by Steve Treder

03/03/2009: Casimir Kwietniewski

by Steve Treder

02/26/2009: TUCK! sez: Hi Yo Silver

by Tuck

02/24/2009: The virtual 1965-68 Washington Senators

by Steve Treder

02/20/2009: The quest for respectability, 2009 edition

by Craig Brown

02/19/2009: TUCK! sez: The other admission this week

by Tuck

02/17/2009: The Sunset League

by Steve Treder

02/17/2009: Consistency meter: Carlos Lee

by Paul Singman

02/16/2009: Matt Wieters or David Price?

by Victor Wang

02/12/2009: TUCK! sez: Toldjya so!!

by Tuck

02/10/2009: Bats right, throws left:  The best players in major league history

by Steve Treder

02/09/2009: The A-Rod Roundtable

by David Gassko

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November 20, 2009

Kevin Millwood or Luis Castillo: Who is more valuable?

Mets Castillo Bunts Against Chicago Cubs
Kind of a weird topic, right? But I have my reasoning.

News broke Friday of a potential three-way deal that would send Milton Bradley back to Texas from the Cubs. Chicago would receive second baseman Luis Castillo from the Mets as their reward for shedding the malcontent, with Kevin Millwood heading to the Big Apple to complete the trade.

This has been debunked by several sources, such as MLB Trade Rumors, T.R Sullivan and Jon Heyman. However, it's sparked a debate between Heyman and other people on Twitter whether or not Castillo or Millwood is valuable.

So, is Castillo valuable? Is Heyman on the mark that Millwood is more valuable than Castillo?

The easiest way to find out is to look at Fangraph's valuation of both players in a dollar figure. Castillo was worth $7.2 million this past year, drawing a salary of $6 million. Last year, he was valued at a paltry $2.6 million, going to show how awful Castillo and his contract looked just a year ago.

Millwood, on the other hand, posted a very good season with a 3.67 ERA. His FIP was 4.80, so there's cause for concern as to whether Millwood is smoke or mirrors. I'm not putting all my eggs into the FIP basket, to use an analogy, but I'm certainly not relying on his ERA either. Millwood was valued at $10.9 million, so right off the bat there is an easy answer to the question as to who is more valuable.

When you think about it, too, isn't it obvious that Millwood is more valuable?

Let's toss out some comparisons.

Castillo has 2 years and $12 million remaining on his contract. He plays second base, a position where offense is not particularly relied on, and will enter his age 34 season. At this point in his career, all Castillo has going for him is his plate discipline and an ability to hit for an average hovering in the .280-.300 range. He's not adept defensively according to UZR. If I had to select Castillo or Chris Getz to be my second baseman next year, I'd select Getz. (All else NOT equal.)

My point here is that Castillo and his production -- with his contract heavily factored in -- is rather replaceable. The only thing Luis has going for him at the moment is that his bad contract can be swapped for another bad contract. (Give me Milton Bradley any day of the week over Castillo, Carl Everett attitude be damned.)

Millwood will be 35 and can hit 200 innings pitched a season. He's a solid, if erratic pitcher who will keep a team in the game and will make $12 million in the final year of his contract. He is best used as a No. 3-4, although the Rangers currently cast him as their ace. Millwood is not replaceable. While you might be able to get away with calling up a AAAA player and having him perform to or over Castillo's abilities, you can't say the same of an AAAA pitcher with respect to Millwood.

That's where this trade breaks down. A Bradley for Millwood swap makes more sense talent-wise, but Castillo being considered on the level of these two players is fallacy at its finest. If true that Mets GM Omar Minaya overvalues him -- even when trying to trade him -- then you can bet on Castillo being the Mets' second baseman in 2010.
Posted by: Evan Brunell


October 04, 2009

What should we call Rivera’s other fastball?

Mariano Rivera is famous for his cut fastball. So famous, in fact, that it's a common misconception that he only throws one pitch. Of course, from PITCHf/x data, as well as some newspaper reports, we know he throws another type of fastball. I've often seen it referred to as a sinker or two-seam fastball, but its spin deflection certainly looks like a classic four-seamer.

In a discussion about Dave Allen's post about Mariano Rivera that took place at the Book blog, I had the occasion to look for images of Rivera's two fastball grips. I thought I'd share them here for yuk-yuks with the other two of you in the world who care about what to properly name Rivera's "other" fastball.

First, here's his cutter grip, with index fingertip and middle fingertip on the seam. As far as I can tell this is close to a typical cutter grip--a four-seam grip with the ball set a little off center in his hand. (There's a better picture here, but I don't have permission to post the image.)

image
Rivera throws a cut fastball against the White Sox, July 16, 2006. (Icon/SMI)

Now, here's the other fastball, the one I tend to call a four-seamer because of how it moves. It's the one others call a two-seamer, though I'm not sure why. If you look at how many seams he's holding, should we call it a one-seamer?

image
Mariano Rivera throws his other fastball against the Rangers, August 7, 2008. (Icon/SMI)

Posted by: Mike Fast


September 26, 2009

Ichiro strike three

Ichiro Suzuki was ejected in the fifth inning of today's game against the Toronto Blue Jays after demonstratively arguing a called strike three. In addition to comments to the umpire, Suzuki drew a line on the ground with his bat to show Brian Runge where he thought the pitch had gone.

Ichiro Suzuki points where he thought the pitch was located.

I grabbed some still shots of the pitch crossing the plate, but with camera angles, it's impossible to tell whether a pitch so close to the edge of the plate was a strike or not. So what did the PITCHf/x tracking system say?

overhead view of pitch path with respect to the home plate

The path of the baseball as tracked by PITCHf/x is shown by the red lines. (The baseball is 2.9 inches in diameter.) PITCHf/x has been shown to be accurate within half an inch, so the gray lines outside the red lines indicate the possible location of the baseball given the margin of error inherent in PITCHf/x measurements near home plate.

It's close enough that Ichiro Suzuki probably shouldn't have taken the pitch. The umpire's going to call that pitch a strike to a left-handed batter at least half the time. The cost of a strike in that situation was the second out of the inning with a runner on third base, costing the Mariners something like 0.6 runs on average. The gain from taking a ball, moving the count from 0-2 to 1-2, is miniscule by comparison, something like 0.025 runs on average.

In this case, he was bailed out by a wild pitch that scored Adam Moore from third during the next at bat, but it wasn't a good bet on Ichiro's part, nor did he have a particularly good case with the ump.

Posted by: Mike Fast


July 24, 2009

What did Mark Buehrle throw?

During the season, Mark Buehrle used his change-up about 15-20% of the time. In yesterday's perfect game, it was his go-to pitch, particularly against right-handed batters, who saw 40 change-ups out of 90 pitches. He notched 15 outs with the change, seven with the four-seam fastball, and five with the cut fastball.

In the last three innings, he went even more heavily to the change-up, throwing 24 changes compared to 18 pitches of all other types combined. This while he was ramping his fastball speed from the mid-eighties to the upper eighties, touching 90 mph with his final pitch.

After the jump is a chart showing the speed of all his pitches, with the pitch type and result of the at bat indicated.
Click for more...

Posted by: Mike Fast


June 09, 2009

Which batters hit the hardest balls in April?

With the release of Sportvision's HITf/x data for April 2009, we can look at who hit the ball the hardest in April. Since batted ball speed does not decrease much even when the batter hits the ball off center, it is more instructive to look at batted ball speed in the horizontal plane. In other words, hitting the ball very hard straight up is likely to turn into an out, while hitting the ball very hard straight toward the outfield is likely to turn into a hit. In fact, we find that batting average is maximized at an elevation of 11 degrees, so we'll look at the average batted ball speed for batters in that plane. We should also remove bunt attempts since they purposefully attempt a low batted ball speed.

Here are the results for the 303 batters with 20 or more non-bunt batted balls recorded by HITf/x. Average batted ball speed for a non-pitcher was 75.1 mph. When pitchers were batting, their average batted ball speed was 66.1 mph.
Click for more...

Posted by: Mike Fast


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