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September 12, 2011

How baseball failed Steve Delabar

Pro Ball NW's editor Jon Shields showed me an article by Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times about Steve Delabar, the newest feel-good story in baseball. Delabar is a relief pitcher for the Seattle Mariners who was recently out of baseball due to a blown elbow. Geoff's story sums it up nicely here:

What happened is that a substitute teacher and baseball coach who'd given up on his playing career because of a shattered elbow found new life in a training regimen he was trying out in advance for his players. Delabar, 28, was a 29th-round draft pick of the Padres in 2003 who'd played five seasons of pro ball and topped out at Single-A.

He then pitched in the independent leagues in 2008 and 2009. His arm was tiring in 2009, but his coach, despite Delabar's protests, insisted he was needed to finish off a game. He heard his elbow pop while throwing a pitch, then saw the bone jutting out from his skin as he stared at the painful fracture.

Surgeons had to wire the elbow back together, inserting a steel plate with nine screws in it that Delabar still shows to anyone brave enough to look via photo on his iPhone. His career was pretty much done in 2010, when he converted to Friday night softball player and began taking courses at the University of Louisville to finish his teaching degree.

Jon wanted to know my thoughts on this story, since he knew about my work at Driveline Baseball. I thought for a bit, and told him:

Most people will see this and think: "Wow, that's great for him!" What I see is a colossal failure by MLB teams. Why wasn't Delabar exposed to better training methods before he flamed out, or after he was injured, by MLB organizations?

People like Dave Cameron have posted how ridiculous it is that teams don't provide adequate nutrition for their minor league baseball players, and this philosophy certainly extends into training as well, as evidenced by the Delabar story.

It's easy to point to Steve Delabar and say: "Wow, what a great story! A guy who came back despite facing major adversity and made his mark in major league baseball!"

But the story is far more complex than that.

For every Delabar out there, there's many more Jason Neighborgalls (the golden arm) who needs unconventional coaching and doesn't get it, and eventually quits baseball or becomes severely injured, ending his career. There's no reason that Delabar should have been released from professional baseball and forced to find his own velocity training program. Major league organizations should have rehabilitation plans for their fringe guys and should have experimental plans for their non-prospects (like Delabar) to get the most they can out of so-called "organizational players."

Organizations that have lower payrolls can't just get the most out of their top prospects if they hope to compete in the playoffs. They need to develop their organizational players and develop "lesser talented players" into players who can contribute at the highest level. And it shouldn't be up to the Steve Delabars of the world to find out how to break back into professional baseball.
Posted by: Kyle Boddy

April 09, 2011

Lucky Eddie

Perhaps it isn't the singular event the baseball world has been waiting for, but nonetheless it's good news for those with an interest in the history of the sport: Eddie Robinson has published his autobiography. Lucky Me: My Sixty-Five Years in Baseball is a good read.

Robinson wasn't a Hall of Fame-quality player, nor was his long post-playing career in the front offices of various organizations one of the greatest, but in both phases Robinson was quite good. And he was extremely well-traveled, playing for the Indians, Senators, White Sox, Athletics, Yankees, Athletics (again), Tigers, Indians (again), and Orioles, and then working in coaching and multiple executive capacities for the Orioles, Colt .45s, Athletics, Braves, Rangers, and Yankees, including stints as the General Manager in Atlanta and Texas. If one is inclined to think that on such a long and winding road Robinson met a lot of interesting people and has a lot of interesting stories to tell, this book amply proves one correct.

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Posted by: Steve Treder

September 16, 2010

Prospects busting out

I prefer good news. Perhaps it's because I'm an optimist. I want to tell you the "glass half-full" side of the prospect story.

But sometimes, that's just not the case.

It doesn't always work out for all prospects. If it did, following them wouldn't be nearly as much fun. Of course, this isn't becoming much fun for these prospects who are struggling to fulfill their potential, or for the fans rooting for them to figure it out.

We must not be quick to rush to judgment when it comes to young players learning how to play a very hard game against the best competition in the world. This is especially true when it comes to young international prospects who also have to learn a new language and high school draft picks who have likely never lived away from home.

But at some point, it becomes clear that a prospect is just not going to develop as was expected, and the reality of the uncertainty of talent evaluation rears its ugly head to front office personnel and fans alike. Typically it is seen as a player takes a second crack at a level of the minors he failed to master the first time around. When this second season goes no better than the first, it becomes apparent that the player may have found his ceiling, despite the tools he may possess and the potential he may exude.

This was the case for a player like Beau Mills, the 13th overall pick in the 2007 draft by the Cleveland Indians. Mills was sent back to Double-A this season after posting a lackluster .267/.308/.417 line there in 2009 as a 22-year-old. Mills returned to Akron and saw his OPS drop by 25 points. There were also off-the-field issues that have nothing to do with his performance, but certainly didn't help. A prospect like Mills will continue to get chances because of the commitment made to him (as a former first-round pick), but his inability to control the strike zone and failure to develop the expected power have led the Indians to look elsewhere in their planning.

While patience must be displayed, the Indians know what they have in Mills after only three full seasons because he was drafted out of college and thus was older and further developed toward his ultimate ceiling. The opposite is true for former first-round draft picks like Bill Rowell and Anthony Hewitt.

Rowell was the first high school hitter selected in the 2006 draft and was thought to be an advanced hitter even for a prep player. His 6-foot-5 frame and smooth swing conveyed power potential without having to over-swing, thus projecting that he could be a .300 hitter as well. Through 53 games of short-season ball during his draft year, the scouting reports appeared accurate, as Rowell posted a .328/.415/.503 line.

Unfortunately for the Orioles and for Rowell, he has never approached that type of production again. In four years of full-season ball, Rowell has yet to post an OPS higher than .761 and his 11 home runs this season, in his second chance at the Carolina League, were a career high. Rowell still could develop into a major league hitter—turned 22 just this past week— but the power that made him a first-round pick has never shown up in games the way it was displayed during batting practice.

The difference between potential in batting practice and what comes out in the games is what will continue haunt Anthony Hewitt as well. Hewitt was a first-round pick by the Phillies in 2008 (24th overall) and was considered the ultimate risk/reward prospect. Hewitt was among the most athletic high school players in the country that year, and also had displayed tremendous power during showcases and occasionally during high school games. Unfortunately, he can't hit a curve ball. Never could. Probably never will.

It's harsh, but it's the biggest adjustment to make, and thus far Hewitt has failed to make it. Despite extreme struggles in short-season ball in both 2008 and 2009 (he hit .197 and .223 respectively), the Phillies sent him to the South Atlantic League in 2010 and essentially watched him drown. Hewitt posted a .202/.243/.327 line and struck out 158 times in 465 plate appearances. Even the power that he has could create only 30 extra base hits due to poor plate recognition.

Hewitt will likely head back to the Sally League next season, perhaps after some time in extended spring training, but will have to make an extreme turnaround to give the Phillies any kind of confidence.

Hewitt isn't the only Phillies first-rounder falling further out of the team's plans each year. The year before Hewitt, the Phillies took Joe Savery, a college two-way player who projected better as a left-handed pitcher and was thought to be a relatively safe pick. Unfortunately as he has progressed further into his minor league career, his velocity has dropped, as have his strikeout numbers.

Never a hard thrower to begin with, Savery has posted K/BB ratios of 1.25 and 1.31 the past two years. Toward the end of the 2010 season, the Phillies began to use him as a DH in Triple-A and have sent him to the instructional league to work on hitting, in hopes that he can make the transition to becoming a prospect with his bat instead of his arm. They haven't shut him down as a pitcher altogether, but trying to become a hitter is rarely a good sign for one's pitching career.
Posted by: Jeff Moore

September 05, 2010

The good face, the halo, and projectability

Not long ago, Ken Funck got it on, and then went on to earn a spot contributing at Baseball Prospectus due in part to his entry in the "BP Idol Contest" about one of the subjective measures that baseball scouts use. While I'm not going down the same avenue Ken chose, I do find myself interested in the same topic.

Like many a young (or not so young, as in my case) baseball blogger, Michael Lewis' Moneyball nudged me toward a more cold and calculating approach to baseball analysis and strategy. With conventional strategy questioned, I started to look at the game of baseball a little differently and felt I could learn a lot more about it than I already knew. Due to that belief, and with sabremetric writings as my bible, my contempt for most sacrifice bunts and intentional walks sprang forth like the Temperance Movement's hatred of alcohol. It's likely that it grew in some part from the statistical approach to baseball glorified in Moneyball. But, one thing that I also took from the book was something the author portrayed in a negative light and that served as the antithesis to statistical analysis. And, even if there wasn't a backdrop of statistical analysis, the absurdity this topic would have still stuck with me.

That was 'The Good Face'.


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Posted by: David Wade

September 01, 2010

Welcome to Chapmania

Can we please come up with a new nickname? It reminds me too much of Newmanium.

Aroldis Champan's debut was the talk of not just the prospect world, but the entire baseball world as well, and the Reds' Cuban prodigy did not disappoint.

The outing was as brief as his fastball's trip to the plate, but it was just as exhilarating. Between the excitement in the stadium and the transparent helplessness of the Brewers' hitters, Chapman's debut was everything that both Reds' fans and baseball fans could have hoped for.

But gushing aside, it's time to see exactly how Chapman performed. We know he threw hard. We know he dominated Jonathan Lucroy, Craig Counsell and Carlos Gomez, which may say more about the Brewers' ineptitude this season than anything about Chapman. And Pitch f/X data is as wonderful of a baseball invention as we've had in decades, but it alone doesn't tell the entire story.

Watching Chapman (and part of me wishes he had to work a little harder just so he would have thrown more than 8 pitches), I was looking for one thing and one thing only - was Chapman hitting his target? Throwing strikes is one thing, but throwing the right strikes is another all together. Chapman, more than almost any other pitcher, will be able to get away with missing his target over the plate, simply because of his velocity. But the main difference between big league hitters and minor league hitters is their ability to punish mistakes, no matter how fast they're coming in. Even at first, Chapman will be able to get away with fastballs over the middle, but once the league gets a book on him (which may not be this year if he's only relieving), hitters will know if he's compensating for a lack of control by throwing it down the middle, and will be able to tee off (relatively speaking) even on 105 mph.

But 8 pitches into his major league career, Chapman showed no intention of falling into this trap.* Of his 6 fastballs, Chapman his his catcher's target with 3 of them (which is plenty when you throw 100+ mph), and two of his misses were triple-digit offerings down the middle to Counsell, which, given Counsell's complete lack of power, may have actually been the plan. Both of the sliders Chapman threw (which were both to Lucroy, a righty) were exactly where his catcher called for them - down and in - and the final one on which Lucroy swung through was buried at the hitter's feet, which is exactly where an 0-2 slider should be.

It's way to early to make any sort of conclusion about Chapman's command based on our extremely small sample size, but when compared to the scouting report I wrote up on him after his first minor league start, I found some consistencies and some improvements.

In his first minor league start (on April 10 against Toledo in Double-A), Chapman threw 63 fastballs (of 85 pitches) and hit his location with 37 of them (59%). When he missed, he missed up in the zone. This was consistent with his brief outing on Tuesday. His slider, however, was another story, as the two he threw to Lucroy were two of the better sliders I've seen him throw. In April, he hit his target with just 5 of 17 pitches (29%), repeatedly missing up and over the plate. These are the pitches that major leaguers will hit. The best sign of Chapman's improvement was the fact that he kept both sliders down, especially given that his off-speed offerings were the biggest question mark surrounding him when he signed.

Chapman should get multiple opportunities over the next month to put his arsenal on display, and I'll continue to monitor the movement of his catcher's mitt as it happens. It may be early, but what's wrong with getting a little excited over some dominant prospect action?

*Yes, I'm jumping the gun and giving a knee-jerk reaction. Get over it.

Notable September Call-Ups

Some notable prospects that have already promoted thanks to today's roster expansion are Jenrry Mejia (Mets), Freddie Freeman (Braves), Carlos Carrasco (Indians), and Yonder Alonso (Reds), with reports claiming that Jeremy Jeffress and Mat Gamel (Brewers), J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays), and Brandon Snyder (Orioles) are also slated to get the call. There are sure to be more on the way, but the day is young.

Arizona Fall League Rosters Announced

As if there wasn't enough going on today, the rosters for the 2010 Arizona Fall League were announced today as well. You can view the full rosters here, but the most notable prospects include Dustin Ackley (Mariners), Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson (Cubs), Tony Sanchez and Andrew Lambo (Pirates), Koby Clemens (Astros), Adeiny Hechavarria (Blue Jays), Jose Iglesias (Red Sox), Jared Mitchell (White Sox), Grant Green and Michael Taylor (A's), Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Eric Hosmer, and Derrick Robinson (Royals), Brett Lawrie (Brewers), Chance Ruffin (Tigers), and Brandon Belt (Giants).
Posted by: Jeff Moore


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