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May 18, 2012

Kerry Wood career highlights

It was stunning, but not surprising, news. On the morning of Friday May 18, 2012, news broke that Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood intended to retire. He’d been having a very rough time of it in 2012 after years of battling injury.

Now that his career is over, it makes sense to take a look back. Below are Wood’s career highlights; these are his bests (and worsts): most important games, milestones, and other odds and ends from his career:
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Posted by: Chris Jaffe

May 14, 2012

Chris Sale and his faulty elbow

Chris Sale has been the subject of much discussion in 2012, as he's been jerked around from the starting role to the bullpen with reports of inconsistent velocity. To compound all of this, he's had an MRI on his elbow due to tightness, though it's been reported that it's due to normal soreness and not major injury.

Keith Law is not impressed with Sale's mechanics or the idea of him in the starting rotation:



I've asked Keith on Twitter (@keithlaw if you decide to do the same) why he thinks Sale's arm action has a higher propensity for elbow injury, but he hasn't commented on the specifics of his claims.

Sale's Mechanics: Then and now

Here are two clips of Chris Sale pitching against Oakland, both in the Coliseum. These are two different years. One clip has Sale throwing a 95 mph fastball, the other a 93 mph fastball. Both came in the eighth inning. Can you tell me which one came from 2012 and which one came from 2011?



If I hadn't cut the video, I bet I wouldn't have been able to do better than simply flipping a coin and guessing, though I might choose the clip where Sale is throwing 95 mph over the one where he came in as a reliever in 2011.

I'd be wrong. Sale was throwing 95 mph in Oakland in the eighth inning as a starter on April 25.

My point is that Sale's mechanics between 2011 and 2012 have not meaningfully changed. (If you slow the clip you can see some minor differences with the glove leg and trunk flexion, though.)

But why does Law think that Sale is an injury risk? I won't speculate on his reasons; rather, I'll discuss some scientific research that might shed a light on Sale's pitching mechanics.

Sidearmers, valgus stress, and you

Generally speaking, Sale has a fairly internally rotated humerus at stride foot contact (SFC) and, combined with his high rates of pelvic and shoulder rotation, he lays his forearm back into external rotation during arm cocking quite fast. This certainly will increase the eccentric load on the shoulder, though whether or not this is specifically injurious is debatable.

However, Sale is also a sidearmer, and research does indicate that sidearm pitchers are generally at higher risk for increased elbow valgus torque. (Source: Aguinaldo et al; ignore the "conclusion" contradiction, Aguinaldo has said it's a typo/mistake in the abstract that isn't there in the full paper. Read it here if you like). Increased elbow valgus stress is highly correlated with UCL tears/sprains, especially when combined with a more-extended elbow at ball release (which Sale does have).

The theory that sidearm pitchers are at higher risk for elbow injuries seems to hold water based on previously conducted research out there, though it's worth noting most sidearm pitchers have lower ball velocity than high three-quarters and overhand pitchers (for whatever reason). Ball velocity is obviously very highly correlated with valgus stress, so the net effect may be lowered amongst all sidearmers. Of course, Sale throws very hard, so that's not applicable to him.

Whether or not Law looked at Sale's mechanics through this type of research lens is unknown, but he's probably onto something. It should be interesting to watch Sale's velocity over the rest of the year, and beyond.
Posted by: Kyle Boddy

May 07, 2012

Ubaldo Jimenez: A quick mechanics review

In my earlier analysis of Ubaldo Jimenez's mechanics, I noted that his initial separation from the glove was extremely early, terminating momentum and reducing athleticism out of the glove with his pitching arm. However, people said that his velocity was up in his start on Sunday against the Texas Ranges and Yu Darvish, and a few readers asked me to take a look into his mechanics. I quickly cut the video and put it up against the 2010 and older 2012 clips to take a look:



The newest clip is on the left, the Rockies (2010) clip is in the middle, and the earlier 2012 clip is on the right. Here's the important part slowed down:



(You can use a free browser plug-in like GIF Scrubber for Chrome to step through these images frame-by-frame or slow it down even further.)

If you can't tell, there's a pretty big difference in his pitching arm action between Sunday's game and the one prior to that, and the results showed it on that pitch, registering at 95 mph on the stadium gun.

Ryan from Let's Go Tribe said that Ubaldo's average four-seam fastball velocity was 94.7 mph, but the Brooks Baseball PITCHf/x tool disagrees, saying Ubaldo came in at 92.37 mph, not much different than his start on May 1, where he was averaging 92.07 mph with the same pitch. (Texas Leaguers agrees with these velocity readings for Ubaldo's May 1 and his May 6 starts.)

Since his average fastball velocity was similar but the arm actions were so different on the 91 and 95 mph fastballs, it's clear that the real problem is consistency in his delivery. Ubaldo's main problem is still the early hand break (with secondary thought to how he uses the front shoulder and glove arm), and while it's encouraging to see fastballs touch 95 mph, his arm action isn't yet as efficient or athletic as it was when he was in Colorado. The closer he gets to optimizing his arm action and remaining consistent with it, the better results you'll see with not only his fastball velocity, but his overall command and control.
Posted by: Kyle Boddy

May 02, 2012

The list, and the wait, grow longer

Dee Gordon hit the first home run of his career Tuesday. Gordon isn't know for his power; he's known for his speed. One day he'll probably tag up from second and score on a pop-up to shortstop.

Dee Gordon has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Jose Tabata homered for the first time this year Tuesday. With nine career long balls in 812 at-bats, that's about one home runs every 90 at-bats.

Jose Tabata has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Rafael Furcal went deep Tuesday for the initial time this season. He actually has more than 100 career home runs, maxing out at 15 in a single season twice, but he's always been known as a speedy (and oft-injured) leadoff hitter.

Rafael Furcal has more homers this year than Albert Pujols.

Cory Snyder, Gordon Beckham and Mark Kotsay all did something Tuesday they hadn't done before in the 2012 regular season. Care to guess what it was? Care to guess what it means?

Thus far, 252 players have hit at least one home run this season. Albert Pujols is not one of those players.

This is not a vengeful rambling of a Cardinals fan rejoicing in the pain of a former hero (though I am a Cardinals fan). No, this is an inquiry into when one of the great hitters in the game's long history will start performing as we all expect him to.

Sure, the signs of decline have been evident the last few years, with Pujols' triple-slash line steadily declining from .357/.462/.653 (1.114 OPS) in 2008 to .299/.366/.541 (906 OPS) in 2011. But last year's OPS+ was still a healthy 148; it's not like Pujols was Adam Dunn bad, where we weren't sure he'd ever bounce back. He still had 37 home runs in 2011, an identical number to his 2008 total.

Knocking the ball over the fence has never been a problem for Pujols, who "bottomed out" in 2007 with a mere 32 long balls. But for some reason—the pressure of his new contract, moving to a new league, having to spend too much time in perfect SoCal weather—that first home run has yet to clear the fence.

Now, we all know it will come, and when it does, it's likely Pujols will pull out of his funk and start shredding the ball as he typically does. But for now, it gives us a chance to speculate.

So, when will Pujols finally join the gaggle of players who have knocked a ball over the fence? Make your guess in the comments section, and we'll see who comes closest to predicting the date Albert Pujols' homerless drought died.

I'm going with Saturday, May 5, against Toronto's Kyle Drabek (though tonight's match-up against Liam Hendricks—WHO?—is enticing).
Posted by: Greg Simons

April 29, 2012

Holland and an imperfect game

I got my first chance to watch my nine-year-old nephew Holland play baseball on Friday. His game was, unsurprisingly, a very different experience from watching the big leaguers. I won't give all the gory details, but a short example from the third inning will show what made an impression on me.

Holland reached base on a 5-4 force-out. On the next pitch, the opposing catcher let strike one roll a couple feet away, and Holland swiped second. The next pitch, ball one, went in the dirt too, and Holland took third. Then, after a walk, the pitcher turned his back for a moment, and not only did Holland steal home, but in the confusion the runner on first got all the way to third.

From my rough scoring of the game (yes, I was scoring it), four and a half innings produced 18 instances of what in professional baseball would be judged wild pitches or passed balls. Nothing more need be said to illustrate the chasm between these kids and "real" ballplayers, right? The professional game, the true game, is on a plane of effective perfection, right?

Jump-cut to the bottom of the ninth at Yankee Stadium that night. Game knotted at six, with Derek Jeter on first and Brayan Villarreal pitching to Curtis Granderson. The payoff pitch goes wild, and Jeter makes it all the way to third. Three pitches later, a slider goes off the end of catcher Alex Avila's glove, and Jeter beats the throw back to the plate to score the winning run.

This was a highly dramatic example, but not an isolated one. On that busy Friday night in major league baseball, there were four passed balls and 12 wild pitches (including two "dropped" third strikes) that led to 20 runners gaining extra bases. Ten of the 15 games on the schedule had at least one wild pitch or passed ball—and all five that didn't had at least one hit-by-pitch.

Maybe most interesting, one of those wild pitches led to that bizarre rarity: a four-strikeout inning. In the top of the eighth at Camden Yards, Oakland's Ryan Cook got the first two Orioles hacking, but strike nine to Adam Jones was a wild one that let Jones reach. Cook regrouped and threw strike 12 past Matt Wieters' bat to end the inning.

It was, according to MLB.com, the 59th four-K inning in history. (And the second one in four days. Who knew?)

So on a pretty ordinary day in baseball, arguably the two most interesting and memorable moments are defined by their imperfection, by someone goofing up. Kinda brings those multi-millionaire celebrities down to the level of nine-year-old boys playing for fun, right?

Well, no. Let's not get carried away. The pros are light-years in quality beyond those kids. But they aren't machines; they aren't infallible.

And thank God for that.

A flawless game is a sterile game. Tic-tac-toe holds no interest for anyone but kids, because adults can figure out the perfect strategy pretty easily and make a perpetual tie of it. Several years ago, computers solved the game of checkers, figuring out its optimum strategies, and the world of human tournament checkers has been reeling ever since. Once there's an equation for a game, the game is over. It's a solved puzzle, thrown out like a completed crossword in yesterday's paper.

It is the possibility, indeed the inevitability, of imperfection that makes the game what it is. The pitcher missing the outside corner; the batter getting under a fastball; the infielder's dive deflecting the hot-shot grounder. You can be perfect for a moment, or for a few at-bats. You might, like Philip Humber, be perfect for a whole game—but then there's the next game.

This should give us a bit of perspective. The players are going to keep striving for perfection, and we're going to keep rooting for our teams to exhibit it, and that's exactly as it should be. But the pursuit of that flawlessness is only interesting because it's so hard to achieve, even briefly, even for the best in the game. In baseball as in so many other endeavors, nobody's perfect.

Except for Holland's team, that is. They're 4-0 on the season so far—but there's still a lot of baseball left to be played.
Posted by: Shane Tourtellotte


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