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December 29, 2011

2011 A’s vs. 1997 Marlins

In 1997, the Florida (now Miami) Marlins won the World Series, bringing joy and enthusiasm to the team and its fan base. Days later, the destruction of the team began as management shipped off nearly every high-priced veteran it could to save money.

The excuse was that the team couldn't afford such a large payroll without a larger fan base, and more fans would come only if the team got a new stadium. Well, it took nearly 15 years, but that new stadium is finally a reality, and it looks to be a stunning ballpark, though the structural integrity and financing of the facility have been called into question.

In 2011, the Oakland A's went 74-88. There were no victory parades, but the team's teardown has been as thorough as the Marlins' was 14 years ago.

Starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez have been shipped off to the Diamondbacks and Nationals, respectively, in return for a gaggle of hot prospects. Middle reliever Craig Breslow joined Cahill in the move to Arizona, while closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney were just sent to Boston for three more promising youngsters.

Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Coco Crisp and Hideki Matsui—all solid, if unispiring, offensive contributors—will not be returning to Oakland. The roster has been stripped so bare that at one point Sweeney was listed on the A's official Web site depth chart as the starting outfielder at all three positions.

Like the Marlins, the A's say they need a new ballpark to compete. And with the Angels signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, and the Rangers coming off back-to-back World Series appearances and acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they certainly need something to keep pace.

Rumors abound that the team soon will be allowed to move to San Jose, though Bud Selig's Blue Ribbon Committee that has been studying the issue for a few years now has not made any formal proposals. Given how long the Marlins waited for a new facility, A's fans shouldn't hold their breath.

When the Marlins tore things down, they shaved massive financial commitments from their books, but at least they had a title to show for their investment. The A's are dealing away young, cheap, cost-controlled talent for even younger, even cheaper, cost-controlled potential. And they have nothing to show for their efforts other than the possibility of being the cheapest, most anonymous ball team since the 1998 Marlins.

Things were awful in South Florida in '98, as the team fell from 92 victories the season before to a mere 54 wins. The A's starting point is 74 wins. An equal 38-game dropoff would yield a 36-126 record that would make the 1962 Mets look like world beaters.

Oakland is unlikely to be quite that bad in 2012 and beyond, but it's going to be horrendously ugly for the next few years. It may even be so bad that this monstrosity will look good by comparison.
Posted by: Greg Simons

October 24, 2011

Struggling Wilson faces Game Five pressure

With the World Series now tied at two games apiece after Derek Holland's near-complete game gem, the Series shifts to a crucial Game Five between the two teams' nominal aces. While Chris Carpenter has lived up to that name so far in the postseason, especially in his complete game shutout of Philadelphia in the deciding Game Five of the NLDS, Texas' C.J. Wilson has struggled, to say the least.

Wilson issued six walks in 5.2 innings in the Rangers' 3-2 Game One loss to St. Louis, which spoiled an otherwise decent start. He has actually thrown a higher percentage of strikes than Carpenter, but Wilson's alarming walk rate (14 in 21.1 postseason innings) and his six home runs allowed have doomed his ERA and WHIP in the playoffs.

	         IP	Record  ERA	WHIP	Home runs	Strike %
C. Carpenter      23	3-0   3.52	1.13	2	        57.4
C.J. Wilson	  21.1	0-3   7.17	1.82	6	        60.1

In a ballpark like Texas', the most hitter- and home run-friendly park this season by a sizeable margin according to ESPN's Park Factor, Wilson's inability to keep balls in the yard against a powerful Cardinals offense could doom the Rangers to a second consecutive World Series defeat. With potentially two games coming from Busch Stadium on Wednesday and Thursday, Wilson could be facing the most pressure-packed start of any pitcher this season. His postseason record to date does not look good for Texas' chances.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 10, 2011

Brewers score big for Greinke

After Milwaukee’s 9-6 win over archrival St. Louis in Sunday’s Game One of the NLCS, Zack Greinke claimed another win at home for the Brewers. In fact, when Greinke has started at home, the Brewers are a remarkable 17-0. Greinke, including the postseason, is 12-0 with a 3.68 ERA in his 17 starts (43 earned runs in 105 innings) this season at Miller Park.

Greinke has, frankly, been awful so far in the postseason if you strictly look at things from an ERA standpoint. He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his 11 postseason innings, but his offense bailed him out in Game Two of the Division Deries against Arizona and Sunday against the Cardinals. For the Brewers, this has been a season-long trend of the offense scoring at an abnormally high rate for Greinke.

                     Games  Team record Runs	Runs per game	   
Greinke's home starts	17	17-0	98	5.76	   
Every Milwaukee game	168	100-68	752	4.48	 

So as you can see, Milwaukee has scored more than one and a quarter more runs per game for Greinke at home than they would for any other pitcher. The disparity would be even larger if you take those 17 Greinke games at home from the Bredwers' 168-game total. I don’t know what it is about the Brewers’ offense playing at its best when Greinke wears the home whites, but it could be a trend that helps Milwaukee win its first world championship.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 07, 2011

The Division Series, last night and tonight

Many Detroit players were key contributors in the team's ALDS upset of the Yankees, but two players acquired during the season by GM Dave Dombrowski, Doug Fister and Delmon Young, played key roles throughout the series, especially in the decisive game five.

Delmon Young	 PA	  Slash Line	HR	RBI	 R	XBH	   
With Twins	325	.266/.305/.357	 4	 32	26	 20	   
With Tigers	178	.274/.298/.458	 8	 32	28	 14	   
Tigers LDS	 21	.316/.381/.789	 3	  3	 4	  3	 

Young's power numbers increased dramatically with Detroit, and his three solo homers against New York all came at crucial times. His home run in the first inning Thursday night gave the Tigers an early lead and set the tone for the rest of the contest for manager Jim Leyland.

On the other side of the ledger, Yankees skipper Joe Girardi surprisingly used the same lineup in all five games. Young top prospect Jesus Montero and veteran outfielder Andruw Jones were left on the bench. While right fielder Nick Swisher struggled, going 4-for-19 in the series, Jones notched an RBI in his lone plate appearance. Swisher surely had a solid regular season, but he has historically performed poorly in his career against Detroit. Jones has fared better.

Career	         PA	  Slash Line    HR      RBI      R       XBH	   
Jones vs DET	 75	.258/.387/.468	 3	  4	10	   7	   
Swisher vs DET	236	.223/.369/.399	 8	 27	33	  17	 

Granted, Swisher had a .273 average and a .414 OBP against the Tigers this year, but Girardi probably should have realized that Swisher was struggling in the series. While the Yankees manager was very quick to pull pitchers, he seemed strangely reluctant to change up his offense, which ultimately faltered in the disappointing defeat.

Milwaukee and Arizona both dominated their two games at home offensively, but the scene now shifts back to Miller Park for the deciding contest. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo seems like a different pitcher at home; he had a 10-2 regular-season record at home with an even 3.00 ERA, more than a full point better than his road ERA. Though Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy is better at Chase Field than he is at home, his regular-season road numbers (10-2, 3.19) are quite comparable to Gallardo's.

In the NL's second Game Five, Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter has been a revelation since the All-Star break, going 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 3-0, 2.15 since the beginning of September. But only tonight's Game Five in Philadelphia matters now, with Carpenter playing second fiddle in the pregame billing to Phillies ace extraordinaire Roy Halladay. The splits clearly favor the home team:

Game Five SP	 IP	Record    ERA	WHIP	K/9			   
Halladay Home	112.2	  8-3    2.48	0.99	8.6			   
Carpenter Road	119.1	  7-6    3.85	1.27	7.4

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 06, 2011

Division Series thoughts, 10/6

It appears that some things hold true no matter the sample size. During the regular season, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored 400 runs at home, the second-highest total in the National League behind only Colorado. Away from the Chase Field aircraft carrier, Arizona scored just 331 runs, ninth in the Senior Circuit.

Through four games of the Snakes' NLDS series against the Brewers, this run-scoring disparity is again holding true. Granted, Arizona faced worse Milwaukee pitching in Games Three and Four, but the season-long trend is continuing for the D-backs.

 
Diamondbacks	   R	  Slash Line	 HR	SB	XBH	   
Postseason Home	  18	.343/.410/.586	  5	 3	  7	   
Postseason Away	   5	.212/.278/.424	  4 	 2	  6	 

Shifting gears to the deciding Game Five in the ALDS between the Yankees and Tigers, Detroit is getting really good production from its part-time players, while the team's stars are relatively foundering over the first four games.

The dynamic combination of Brandon Inge, Don Kelly, Magglio Ordonez and Ryan Raburn have gone a combined 11-for-26, for a .423 average.

The Tigers' power nexus of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Alex Avila are a combined 6-for-38 in the division series, or a .158 average.

While Jhonny Peralta and Delmon Young are having strong series with the bat, Austin Jackson has just one hit against his former team in 12 at-bats. For the Tigers to defeat the Yankees and Ivan Nova on Thursday in the Bronx, Jim Leyland's powerful offensive trio is going to have to perform a whole lot better than it has over the first four games.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung


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