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October 24, 2011

Struggling Wilson faces Game Five pressure

With the World Series now tied at two games apiece after Derek Holland's near-complete game gem, the Series shifts to a crucial Game Five between the two teams' nominal aces. While Chris Carpenter has lived up to that name so far in the postseason, especially in his complete game shutout of Philadelphia in the deciding Game Five of the NLDS, Texas' C.J. Wilson has struggled, to say the least.

Wilson issued six walks in 5.2 innings in the Rangers' 3-2 Game One loss to St. Louis, which spoiled an otherwise decent start. He has actually thrown a higher percentage of strikes than Carpenter, but Wilson's alarming walk rate (14 in 21.1 postseason innings) and his six home runs allowed have doomed his ERA and WHIP in the playoffs.

	         IP	Record  ERA	WHIP	Home runs	Strike %
C. Carpenter      23	3-0   3.52	1.13	2	        57.4
C.J. Wilson	  21.1	0-3   7.17	1.82	6	        60.1

In a ballpark like Texas', the most hitter- and home run-friendly park this season by a sizeable margin according to ESPN's Park Factor, Wilson's inability to keep balls in the yard against a powerful Cardinals offense could doom the Rangers to a second consecutive World Series defeat. With potentially two games coming from Busch Stadium on Wednesday and Thursday, Wilson could be facing the most pressure-packed start of any pitcher this season. His postseason record to date does not look good for Texas' chances.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

October 17, 2011

Offensive surge gives Cardinals NL pennant

The St. Louis Cardinals are in the World Series for the third time in eight years after an offensive explosion propelled the Redbirds to a six-game series win over heated rival Milwaukee. St. Louis scored 43 runs over the six games, including a dozen in a 12-6 win on Sunday night.

The Cardinals offense improved its overall numbers from the regular season and currently top the eight postseason teams in batting average and are second in on-base percentage and slugging.

	             AB	        Slash Line	 HR	XBH
Cards Reg. Season   5532      .273/.321/.425	162	502
Cards Postseason     386      .288/.345/.448	 10	 39

Rafael Furcal's solo home run in Game Six gave the veteran shortstop nine home runs since the start of the regular season, and six of those have come against Milwaukee. But the real story in the playoffs for Tony La Russa's squad is the emergence of David Freese as a frightening presence in the lineup.

Freese hit a home run every 36.3 plate appearances in the regular season, and that number is down to 10.75 in the playoffs. He's averaging an extra-base hit every 4.77 plate appearances, about once per game, down from once every 13.44 regular season PA. The staggering numbers do not stop there:

	                 PA	  Slash Line	 HR	XBH
Freese Reg. Season	363	.297/.350/.441	 10	 27
Freese Postseason	 43	.425/.465/.850	  4	  9

Freese probably would not be able to duplicate those numbers on his favorite game console, and his surge of offensive proficiency and prowess is a major reason why the Cardinals are the NL's surprise World Series entrant.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 22, 2011

Offenses dramatically impacting NL Wild Card race

On Sept. 1, the Braves led the Cardinals by eight and a half games (nine in the loss column) and the Giants by nine and a half (10 in the loss column). Exactly three weeks later, that lead has decreased to one and a half games over St. Louis (one in the loss column) and three and a half over San Francisco (three in the loss column).

Pitching is obviously a large factor: The Giants' 2.69 team ERA (first in the NL) and the Cardinals' 3.18 ERA (sixth in the NL) are much better than the Braves' 4.16 team ERA (12th in the league). But the stark differences in recent offensive performance have made this race far too close for Atlanta's comfort.

 September
(NL rank)	                 Slash Line	          R	    HR	        XBH	   
St. Louis Cardinals	.292 (1)/.346 (2)/.442 (2)	85 (2)	  17 (T-9)	55 (T-3)	   
San Francisco Giants	.255 (4)/.319 (8)/.452 (1)	82 (T-3)  24 (3)	52 (T-7)	   
Atlanta Braves	        .251 (6)/.320 (7)/.383 (11)	73 (12)	  18 (T-6)	49 (11)	 

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 20, 2011

Comparing Curtis Granderson

After his 41st home run on Monday afternoon in a 6-4 win over Minnesota, Yankees slugger Curtis Granderson has seemingly furthered his case for the American League MVP award. However, sabermetricians and the stats of past prolific Yankees home run hitters over the 21st century would show that Granderson is not worthy of the award.

Granderson, with his 7.0 WAR, doesn't even have the best WAR on his own team—CC Sabathia bests him with a 7.1—and Granderson is well behind Jacoby Ellsbury's 8.5 and Jose Bautista's 8.2. Even Dustin Pedroia edges Granderson with his 7.3, and 24-game winner Justin Verlander matches his former Detroit teammate with his 7.0 WAR.

AL MVP candidates	        PA        Slash Line    HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	   
Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR	612	.304/.448/.623	42	100	102	8.2	 8	   
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS	681	.319/.376/.539	27	 96	111	8.5	37	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS	        684	.297/.380/.463	20	 83	 96	7.3     26	 

Granderson's team has fared better than the other candidates', which still may be a factor in the minds of some of the voters, but many of his numbers don't stack up compared with other MVP candidates and previous Yankees home run hitters.

	                PA        Slash Line    HR      RBI      R      WAR     SB	 Awards
C. Granderson, 2011	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	??
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	MVP (1), SS
Alex Rodriguez, 2005	715	.321/.421/.610	48	130	124	9.1	21	MVP (1), SS
Jason Giambi, 2003	690	.250/.412/.527	41	107	 97	5.0	 2	MVP (13)
Jason Giambi, 2002	689	.314/.435/.598	41	122	120	7.0	 2	MVP (5), SS

When Rodriguez won the MVP in 2007 and 2005, his numbers were better than Granderson's across the board except Granderson's runs, which lead the AL. That total is the best stat he has going for him besides the home runs. Giambi did not play the field in 43 percent of his games in 2002 and 2003, which impacted his WAR numbers and MVP chances.

The average WAR of the last five AL MVPs is 7.4, and that number is weighed down by Justin Morneau's 4.0 WAR in 2006 (Derek Jeter and David Ortiz each had a 6.3 and finished second and third, respectively). Pedroia's 6.8 in 2008 was oddly the best WAR among the top five vote-getters. But I digress...

 
	                  PA	  Slash Line 	HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Josh Hamilton, 2010	  571	.359/.411/.633	32	100	 95	8.7	 8	   
Joe Mauer, 2009	          606	.365/.444/.587	28	 96	 94	7.9	 4	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2008	  726	.326/.376/.493	17	 83	118	6.8	20	   
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	  708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	   
Justin Morneau, 2006	  661	.321/.375/.559	34	130	 97	4.0	 3	 

You could make a decent case that Granderson should win the MVP this season (and some people certainly could speculate that performance-enhancing drugs has to do with past inflated WAR numbers), but he would certainly be a below-average MVP candidate from a historical and, in my view, a current perspective.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 16, 2011

Revisiting the Napoli-Wells three-way trade

After Rangers catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli collected two more hits to raise his average to .312, it brought me back to what turned out to be a relatively lopsided three-way trade.

The original purpose of the deal was for Toronto to get rid of Vernon Wells' contract, sending him to the Angels for Napoli and Juan Rivera, who was later designated for assignment and shipped to the Dodgers. With J.P. Arencibia seen as their future at catcher, the Blue Jays sent Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco, who turned out to be the Jays' closer for a decent stretch this season.

I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the players in this trade, which was really two separate deals, with a nifty comparison graphic.

 
	                PA	 Slash Line	HR	RBI	 R	 WAR	   
Mike Napoli, Rangers	392	.312/.411/.613	26	67	67	 5.0	   
Vernon Wells, Angels	478	.218/.251/.399	21	56	56	-0.3	   
Juan Rivera, TOR/LAD	473	.260/.321/.381	9	62	40	 0.7	 

 
                              Innings 	Record/ERA/SV   WHIP    K/9	WAR	   
Frank Francisco, Blue Jays	47.2	1-4, 3.78, 15	1.36	9.44	0.7		 

Despite Wells having $86 million left on his contract at the time of the trade and Anaheim being left to start a light-hitting, defensive-minded catcher in Jeff Mathis, the Angels decided it would be best to acquire Wells and deal the power-hitting Napoli, coming off a 26-home run season, to the Blue Jays. Having led baseball in team home runs the season before, it was understandable that Toronto would trade Napoli to Texas for some relief help.

But the clear, obvious winners in the trade were the Rangers. Napoli has given them yet another power-hitting addition to their scary-potent offense, while Wells has proven that he will be a past-his-prime toxic contract for the Angels for years to come. Who would have thought that trading Napoli to Toronto would have drastically changed the landscape of the AL West race?
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung


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