December 11, 2013
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Cy Young award Articles
Following are the one hundred most recent articles for the category Cy Young award .
11/14/2013: Let’s discuss the THT Annualby Dave Studeman
12/11/2013: Alone on the pedestal, Part 2by Jason Linden
12/11/2013: The Applegate factorby Shane Tourtellotte
12/10/2013: All about the latest Bill James Handbookby Dave Studeman
12/10/2013: Though night may fall, play ball!by Frank Jackson
12/10/2013: Roy Halladay retiresby Jeff Moore
12/09/2013: Leverage Index by inningby Dave Studeman
12/09/2013: How far are the Mariners from relevancy?by Brad Johnson
12/09/2013: Prince Halby Chris Jaffe
12/09/2013: Three underrated acquisitionsby Pat Andriola
12/06/2013: Cooperstown Confidential: Ed Charles and 42by Bruce Markusen
12/06/2013: The Athletics get busyby Brad Johnson
12/06/2013: Getting to know Ryan Haniganby Chad Dotson
12/04/2013: Cataloging the non-tendered playersby Brad Johnson
12/04/2013: Alone on the pedestalby Jason Linden
12/03/2013: Mascot fight!by Greg Simons
12/03/2013: Why is a sinker “heavy?”by David Kagan
12/03/2013: The role of fall leaguesby Jeff Moore
12/02/2013: Nationals make great deal for Fisterby Matt Filippi
12/02/2013: The Twins go holiday shopping, but to what end?by Brad Johnson
12/02/2013: The end of the benchby Chris Jaffe
11/29/2013: Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Danny Waltonby Bruce Markusen
11/29/2013: The best rookies of the ‘30sby Chad Dotson
11/27/2013: Towards an award prediction systemby Shane Tourtellotte
11/26/2013: MLB’s coffers are overflowingby Greg Simons
11/26/2013: The role of prospects in tradesby Jeff Moore
11/25/2013: Stepping up to the plateby Frank Jackson
11/25/2013: 10 things I didn’t know about player birthdaysby Chris Jaffe
11/22/2013: The end of the road for Chris Carpenterby Chad Dotson
11/21/2013: All the news that’s fit to inventby Azure Texan
11/20/2013: Marcus Stroman, the mythbusting machineby Kyle Boddy
11/20/2013: Welcome to the birthplace of… someone elseby Jason Linden
11/19/2013: 2013 THT awards reviewby Greg Simons
11/18/2013: THT Fantasy has moved to Rotographsby Dave Studeman
11/18/2013: Atlanta gets burned againby Frank Jackson
11/18/2013: The 2014 Hall of Fame VC ballotby Chris Jaffe
11/18/2013: Must See MLB.TV 2013by Dave Studeman
11/15/2013: The best rookies of the ‘40sby Chad Dotson
11/15/2013: Card Corner: Wayne Granger: 1973 Toppsby Bruce Markusen
11/14/2013: 10th anniversary: the A.J. Pierzynski tradeby Chris Jaffe
11/14/2013: The Screwball: The face of championship baseballby Azure Texan
11/14/2013: Player-A-Day: Casey Fienby Brad Johnson
11/13/2013: Player-A-Day: Tim Lincecumby Brad Johnson
11/13/2013: Pitcher performance after batting successby Shane Tourtellotte
11/13/2013: 25th anniversary: Rob Neyer writes a letterby Chris Jaffe
11/13/2013: Houston hoodoo ‘62by Frank Jackson
11/12/2013: It’s The Hardball Times Annual 2014by Dave Studeman
11/12/2013: Player-A-Day: Joe Mauerby Brad Johnson
11/11/2013: Fastball velocity by game stateby Jon Roegele
11/11/2013: The rise of the middle-aged managerby Chris Jaffe
11/08/2013: Player-A-Day: Josmil Pintoby Brad Johnson
11/08/2013: Hall monitor: The case for Andruw Jonesby Chad Dotson
11/07/2013: Big leaguers, bit partsby Azure Texan
11/07/2013: Player-A-Day: Nathan Eovaldiby Brad Johnson
11/06/2013: If he’d only gotten another shotby Jason Linden
11/06/2013: Player-A-Day: David DeJesusby Brad Johnson
11/05/2013: Player-A-Day: David Ortizby Brad Johnson
11/04/2013: Player-A-Day: Jose Dariel Abreuby Brad Johnson
11/04/2013: The Boston (Braves) Marathon of 1928by Frank Jackson
11/04/2013: 10 things I didn’t know about birthdays in 2013by Chris Jaffe
11/01/2013: Taking the close pitch with two strikesby James Gentile
11/01/2013: Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Don Baylorby Bruce Markusen
11/01/2013: The best rookies of the ‘50sby Chad Dotson
10/31/2013: The Screwball: Celebrate good times, come on!by Azure Texan
10/31/2013: Player-A-Day: Leonys Martinby Brad Johnson
10/30/2013: Player-A-Day: Jon Lesterby Brad Johnson
10/30/2013: Forecasting the major 2013 awardsby Shane Tourtellotte
10/30/2013: The effect of seeing pitchesby Jon Roegele
10/29/2013: Putting the knock on pitching changesby Joe Distelheim
10/29/2013: Player-A-Day: Ryan Howardby Brad Johnson
10/29/2013: Losing momentum in the sixth gameby Dave Studeman
10/29/2013: Previewing the fall Stars gameby Jeff Moore
10/28/2013: Player-A-Day: Travis Woodby Brad Johnson
10/28/2013: Marquis Grissom: Mr. October Jr.by Frank Jackson
10/25/2013: The blackballing of Dick Dietzby Bruce Markusen
10/24/2013: Player-A-Day: Xander Bogaertsby Brad Johnson
10/24/2013: The Screwball: Put it in neutral?by Azure Texan
10/24/2013: The all-decade team: the ‘00sby Richard Barbieri
10/24/2013: Player-A-Day: Michael Wachaby Brad Johnson
10/23/2013: Earn money watching baseballby Dave Studeman
10/23/2013: Player-A-Day: Jose Iglesiasby Brad Johnson
10/23/2013: 20th anniversary: The Joe Carter gameby Chris Jaffe
10/23/2013: Giants take a risk with Lincecum’s two-year dealby Matt Filippi
10/23/2013: BOB: Nolan Ryan retires…for nowby Brian Borawski
10/22/2013: Where does David Price fit?by Jeff Moore
10/22/2013: Survey says?!?!?by Greg Simons
10/22/2013: ALCS post-mortem: The Fielder playby Shane Tourtellotte
10/21/2013: The best rivalries of 2013by Chris Jaffe
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March 28, 2012
Extremely early awards votingSure, it's only one game (Mariners 3-1 over the A's in 11 in Tokyo), but a few players already have set themselves apart from the competition, establishing themselves are early front-runners for the American League MVP and Cy Young awards. Here's a look at the candidates and their credentials.
1. Dustin Ackley is slugging 1.000 and on pace for 162 homers, the same number of stolen bases, 324 RBI, and an equal number of runs scored. Naturally, all of those would be major league records. He had the game-winning RBI in Wednesday's contest, too, so he has the clutchiness factor working for him.
2. Ackley's 324-hit pace would shatter the current record. However, Ichiro Suzuki is looking to protect his status as the record holder in that category by getting off on a 648-hit pace, nearly 400 base knocks over the current record of 262 safties. Also, Ichiro's .800 batting average would make Ted Williams' .406 mark look pathetic in comparison.
3. A distant third, Cliff Pennington is batting .400 with a stolen base. Hey, someone has to get those third-place votes.
If you prefer to put one of the pitchers below in the MVP discussion, that's completely understandable. For now, I'm keeping the hitters and hurlers separate.
AL Cy Young
1. He didn't get the Opening Day win, but a low win total didn't stop Felix Hernandez from bringing home the hardware a couple of seasons ago. His eight-inning, six-strikeout, one-run, five-hit, no-walk performance enabled the Mariners to stay in the game long enough for Ackley to execute his heroics. And Hernandez's 1.13 ERA would be just off Bob Gibson's 1968 record of 1.12.
2. Brandon McCarthy did his best to keep pace with King Felix, but he managed to twirl only seven innings of six-hit, one-run ball. He also didn't walk anyone (nor did any other pitcher on either staff), but his mere three punchouts hint at a lack of dominance that could weaken his case as the season progresses.
3. Brandon League preserved the M's win, throwing a shutout frame in the 11th inning, whiffing two batters while allowing one hit. Sure, saves are overrated, but League's peripheral numbers show he's more than just an accumulator.
Posted by: Greg Simons
November 16, 2010
Predicting the Cy Young and MVP winnersIn The Hardball Times Annual 2009, I built a model for predicting the winners of the MVP and Cy Young Awards. My model(s) have historically done pretty well (note: in-sample testing), getting the winner right around two-thirds of the time (a little worse for the MVP and a little better for the Cy Young). Last year, the model was two-for-four, correctly guessing the MVPs but whiffing on both Cy Youngs. I figured I would take a look at what the model is thinking this year before the awards actually get handed out.
(Note that the model hands out MVP and Cy Young points on a 1,000 point scale, with 1,000 points indicating a player who should win unanimously. Also, please remember that it is exponential, so small differences can get magnified at the high-end, as they tend to be in awards voting.)
Josh Hamilton | .359 BA | 32 HR | 100 RBI | 434 MVP
Robinson Cano | .319 BA | 29 HR | 109 RBI | 237 MVP
Miguel Cabrera | .328 BA | 38 HR | 126 RBI | 201 MVP
Hamilton looks like the clear favorite in the American League. Cabrera would have been slightly favored had the Tigers made the playoffs, but without that he has little chance.
Joey Votto | .324 BA | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 322 MVP
Roy Halladay | 21-10 W/L | 2.44 ERA | 250.2 IP | 299 MVP
Albert Pujols | .312 BA | 42 HR | 118 RBI | 204 MVP
If the Cardinals had made the playoffs, Pujols would be the hands-down favorite for a third-straight MVP. Instead, it looks like Votto will take the prize this season, though the model also really likes Halladay. I don't think the voters will see it as quite such a close race.
AL Cy Young
CC Sabathia | 21-7 W/L | 3.18 ERA | 237.2 IP | 357 Cy Young
David Price | 19-6 W/L | 2.72 ERA | 208.2 IP | 292 Cy Young
Jon Lester | 19-9 W/L | 3.25 ERA | 208.0 IP | 127 Cy Young
If Felix Hernandez wins the Cy Young Award this season that will be a strong sign that the Cy Young model needs to be re-calibrated for a new, more intelligent era of voting. Last season, it whiffed on both Cy Youngs, thinking voters wouldn't pick a 15 and 16-game winner when there were candidates with 19 wins and good numbers to choose from as well. In the past, this race would definitely have gone for Sabathia, but I'm not so sure that will happen this time around.
NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay | 21-10 W/L | 2.44 ERA | 250.2 IP | 982 Cy Young
Adam Wainwright | 20-11 W/L | 2.42 ERA | 230.1 IP | 384 Cy Young
Ubaldo Jimenez | 19-8 W/L | 2.88 ERA | 221.2 IP | 287 Cy Young
Halladay is the only player to completely run away with one of the awards, as far as the model sees it. From start to finish, he had a truly fantastic season in 2010.
Posted by: David Gassko
September 30, 2010
Justin Verlander: Pitching on the edge of Cy YoungLast night in Cleveland, Justin Verlander made his final start of 2010. His stuff was outstanding and he located his big curveball for called strikes. He gave up seven hits and ended up allowing four runs in seven innings, but there was something else.
Verlander did something in that game that was as impressive as anything I've seen this year, a year that's been full of excellent pitching. After getting the first out of the seventh inning, he loaded the bases with two singles and a walk. He then faced Cleveland left-handed hitters Trevor Crowe and Shin-Soo Choo. He knew this was going to be his last inning of the year, and he struck out both of them, on his last eight pitches of a game total of 121. Seven of those last eight pitches were fastballs ranging from 99 to 102 mph.
The impressive performance capped off another terrific season, and while he will not win the Cy Young Award this year, he's probably closer than many think.
His ERA (3.37) is good enough to rank among the top 10 best starters in the American League. However, it is about a full run higher than that of 2010 leaders Felix Hernandez (2.27) and Clay Buchholz (2.33). He's among league leaders in wins, but so are CC Sabathia, Phil Hughess, David Price and Jon Lester. He ranks highly in WHIP (1.16), but not as high as Hernandez and Weaver. He is topping 200 strikeouts for the second straight season, but Weaver, Hernandez and Lester should all finish ahead of him.
While he clearly has posted another great year, most measures Cy Young voters will likely use put the Detroit Tigers pitcher just outside of serious consideration.
On the other hand, a couple of advanced metrics actually rate Verlander as not just lurking on the outer edge of the league's best pitchers for 2010, but rather right in the middle of them.
Verlander's Fielder Independent Pitching is 2.98. FIP is a metric designed to focus more on what a pitcher actually controls. In other words, batted balls and defense are taken out of the equation. Verlander's FIP is very competitive with the mainstream Cy Young candidates this season. In fact, he's as good as anyone beside Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano. The latter has also had a season that, while terrific, has been slightly under the radar as far as Cy Young talk goes.
Verlander also compares favorably to Lee, Liriano and Hernandez in Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
Verlander's getting a lot of love in some of the advanced metrics, like FIP, because he's keeping a few extra fly balls in the park this year. Some of that may be attributed to luck, as his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate is a little below his career average, which is also a little below league average, by the way. But, while he may have had some additional flies stay in the park and help his numbers, his 41 percent groundball rate is up five points from last year, so I'll give him a little credit for posting such a strong number.
His difference in ERA this year, most notably from contemporaries like Buchholtz and Hernandez (while besting them both in FIP), may just mean those guys have a little better defense behind them or that a few extra balls have fallen in the gaps on Justin.
About a month ago, Verlander says he finally got a good feel for his curveball. His results in September have shown what a difference getting a feel for his curve makes, as he's struck out 51 batters and allowed only six walks in September.
Fangraphs shows that Verlander has also started replacing some of his fastballs with sliders this year. He started working that fourth pitch in last season, perhaps at the expense of his change-up, throwing it 2.3 percent of the time. That number is up to 7.0% this year and is quickly becoming yet another reliable option to keep batters off balance. I first read about Verlander toying with this fourth pitch here last season, and I think that author's suspicion about the Tiger ace adding a fourth pitch is certainly confirmed now that Verlander is liking the slider enough to use it in place of his dominant fastball more often.
Verlander has followed up his amazing 2009 season in fine manner, and while his strong finish this year has him just outside Cy Young discussion, his past two seasons mean he should seriously contend in 2011. Had Zack Greinke not been so otherworldly last year, Verlander may have already earned the award. In fact, Verlander's 2009 looks like it could have been even better if a few things had gone his way. For some reason he held batters to only a 36 percent GB/FB rate, a number quite a bit lower than his 41.4 percent career average going into last year. He struck out 269 batters in 240 innings. His WAR ranked just behind Greinke.
Now, Verlander wasn't ignored last year: He finished third in voting. Had he repeated his 2009 K rate this year, he may have forced his way into the debate instead of relying on me to build a haphazard case for him.
Justin Verlander has pitched well enough to be in the discussion for 2010 Cy Young consideration. He's been just shy of Lee and Hernandez in WAR this season, but has outperformed Buchholz, Price and Sabathia by a good margin. Another year of durability and success under his belt and the addition of a reliable fourth pitch may take him from Cy Young also-ran to Cy Young winner soon.
Posted by: David Wade
June 01, 2010
Two months in, who are the Cy Young and MVP contenders?One of my favorite things to do with THT Forecasts is to look at how projected end-of-the-year leaders change as real numbers begin to pile up, and projections both evolve and start to play a smaller role. Two months into the season, I thought it would be fun to look at which players are on-pace to capture the MVP and Cy Young awards, using the model I developed in The Hardball Times Annual last year.
Click for more...
Posted by: David Gassko
November 23, 2009
Greinke and fly ballsIn God we trust. All others bring data. -W. Edwards Deming
Along with Zack Greinke's 2009 American League Cy Young Award came a widely-circulated article by Tyler Kepner in the New York Times. In the article, Brian Bannister is quoted, "So a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park."
There's quite a bit to digest in Kepner's article besides that one excerpt from Bannister, but it was one piece that I thought would be easy to check. What did I find?
Road Home Bunt 5% 2% Fly 30% 33% Ground 36% 41% Liner 21% 16% Popup 8% 8%The batted ball type comes from the MLB Gameday data. The results don't really line up with what Bannister what saying. It may be that Greinke was pitching for more fly balls at home but not necessarily getting them, but that's a question for another day.
Update: Here's the batted ball log by game.
Date Park Fly Ground LD Pop Bunt 4/8 cha 0 8 2 1 1 4/13 kca 3 4 5 0 0 4/18 tex 6 9 7 1 1 4/24 kca 4 9 3 1 2 4/29 kca 9 6 2 1 0 5/4 kca 7 8 2 4 0 5/9 ana 10 9 2 0 2 5/15 kca 8 7 5 1 0 5/21 kca 5 8 2 1 1 5/26 kca 3 13 3 3 0 5/31 kca 7 11 2 1 0 6/5 tor 11 3 6 2 0 6/11 cle 3 8 5 2 3 6/17 kca 11 7 1 0 1 6/23 hou 6 14 3 0 3 6/28 pit 4 4 8 4 1 7/3 kca 5 9 3 2 0 7/8 det 7 6 2 0 1 7/14 sln 0 0 0 1 0 7/18 kca 4 11 2 3 0 7/24 kca 3 10 1 1 0 7/29 bal 6 3 4 3 0 8/3 tba 1 8 4 0 2 8/8 kca 6 8 5 3 0 8/14 det 6 4 5 3 0 8/19 cha 7 5 4 3 0 8/25 kca 7 4 1 1 0 8/30 sea 9 9 2 3 0 9/5 kca 9 4 8 1 1 9/11 cle 6 9 2 1 0 9/17 det 1 3 5 0 0 9/22 kca 8 3 2 2 0 9/27 kca 6 8 5 0 0 10/3 min 7 7 3 0 1
Posted by: Mike Fast
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