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January 12, 2012

On Ryan Madson: Parsing Boras’ comments

Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. and super-agent Scott Boras are having a skirmish of words regarding the Phillies' non-signing of closer Ryan Madson. Boras seems to be saying the Phillies reneged on their offer of $44 million over four years, while Amaro says, "there never was an agreement."

Obviously, since Madson is now a Cincinnati Red, Amaro is correct that there never was an agreement—at least not one so formal that it led to a signed contract. However, there may have been a verbal agreement, a handshake deal, a nod-and-wink, nudge-nudge, say-no-more pact that simply needed to be put to paper and submitted to Major League Baseball's offices for confirmation.

Or there may not have been. If we read exactly what Boras said, it becomes clear that he did not say that he and the Phillies had agreed to a four-year, $44 million contract.

Boras first stated, "We never rejected any offer from Philadelphia at four years and $44 million. We advised Philadelphia that we would agree to such a proposal." He followed that comment up with, "We agreed to a four-year, $44 million offer, and Philadelphia decided to sign someone else."

Let's take a look at the first sentence. While he and Madson never rejected the contract in dispute, Boras didn't say the Phillies made such an offer. You can't reject an offer that isn't made, so Boras may not be lying. Also, "never rejected" is not the same as "accepted."

His second sentence says they would have taken such a deal. Hey, so would I, but no one made me such an offer and, again, maybe the Phillies didn't make one to Boras for Madson's services.

The last sentence uses "we" vaguely. Which "we" agreed to the four-year, $44 million contract he mentions? It could be that "we" is Boras and Madson. Perhaps those two men decided between themselves that such an offer would be acceptable. Good for them, but if the Phillies never tendered such a deal, there was nothing for Boras to accept.

Scott Boras obviously is a phenomenally successful agent. He has made his clients billions of dollars and himself a nice cut of those salaries. He produces gold-lettered, platinum-laced, diamond-encrusted binders to demonstrate how clients such as Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder are the greatest athletes in the history of the universe and should be paid like minor deities. Boras does his job extraordinarily well.

But his success does not come from blunt directness. It comes from deception, obfuscation and borderline flat-out lying. Boras knows where that borderline is, and he has no fear of going up to it and nudging his toes right up against that line. It's what he gets paid so well to do.
Posted by: Greg Simons

December 29, 2011

2011 A’s vs. 1997 Marlins

In 1997, the Florida (now Miami) Marlins won the World Series, bringing joy and enthusiasm to the team and its fan base. Days later, the destruction of the team began as management shipped off nearly every high-priced veteran it could to save money.

The excuse was that the team couldn't afford such a large payroll without a larger fan base, and more fans would come only if the team got a new stadium. Well, it took nearly 15 years, but that new stadium is finally a reality, and it looks to be a stunning ballpark, though the structural integrity and financing of the facility have been called into question.

In 2011, the Oakland A's went 74-88. There were no victory parades, but the team's teardown has been as thorough as the Marlins' was 14 years ago.

Starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez have been shipped off to the Diamondbacks and Nationals, respectively, in return for a gaggle of hot prospects. Middle reliever Craig Breslow joined Cahill in the move to Arizona, while closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney were just sent to Boston for three more promising youngsters.

Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Coco Crisp and Hideki Matsui—all solid, if unispiring, offensive contributors—will not be returning to Oakland. The roster has been stripped so bare that at one point Sweeney was listed on the A's official Web site depth chart as the starting outfielder at all three positions.

Like the Marlins, the A's say they need a new ballpark to compete. And with the Angels signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, and the Rangers coming off back-to-back World Series appearances and acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they certainly need something to keep pace.

Rumors abound that the team soon will be allowed to move to San Jose, though Bud Selig's Blue Ribbon Committee that has been studying the issue for a few years now has not made any formal proposals. Given how long the Marlins waited for a new facility, A's fans shouldn't hold their breath.

When the Marlins tore things down, they shaved massive financial commitments from their books, but at least they had a title to show for their investment. The A's are dealing away young, cheap, cost-controlled talent for even younger, even cheaper, cost-controlled potential. And they have nothing to show for their efforts other than the possibility of being the cheapest, most anonymous ball team since the 1998 Marlins.

Things were awful in South Florida in '98, as the team fell from 92 victories the season before to a mere 54 wins. The A's starting point is 74 wins. An equal 38-game dropoff would yield a 36-126 record that would make the 1962 Mets look like world beaters.

Oakland is unlikely to be quite that bad in 2012 and beyond, but it's going to be horrendously ugly for the next few years. It may even be so bad that this monstrosity will look good by comparison.
Posted by: Greg Simons

October 27, 2011

How good has Mike Napoli’s World Series been?

With the World Series having shifted to St. Louis for good, we won't be able to hear the catchy "Na-Po-Li!" chant echo throughout Arlington anymore. However, Texas' catcher will still be heard and felt in a big way for the rest of the series and will likely be named series MVP if the Rangers close out their first world championship.

Mike Napoli has been so strong offensively in the eighth spot in the Rangers lineup that he's outperformed every player in this series except, perhaps, Cardinals hitter Albert Pujols. Even Pujols' batting average, RBI and slugging percentage don't match up to Napoli's production over the first five World Series games. In fact, if we look back at the cleanup hitters in the past five Fall Classics, it seems like Napoli has out-produced them all.

	             Slash Line	HR	RBI	R	XBH
Napoli 2011	.308/.389/.846	2	9	2	3
C. Ross  2010	.235/.381/.471	1	2	5	2
Guerrero 2010	.071/.125/.071	0	2	0	0
A-Rod 2009	.250/.423/.550	1	6	5	4
Howard 2009	.174/.240/.391	1	3	3	3
Howard 2008	.286/.375/.762	3	6	3	4
C. Pena 2008	.118/.250/.176	0	2	1	1
M. Ramirez 2007	.250/.333/.313	0	2	3	1
M. Holliday 2007.294/.294/.471	1	3	1	1

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

June 21, 2011

What happens with Pujols and the Cardinals now?

Albert Pujols has proven to be a dependable star, playing in 140-plus games every year since 2001. In addition to showing up nearly every game, he has proven very resistant to slumps.

This year, Albert started the year stuck in a prolonged, for him, slump, finally breaking out in June. They he suffering the first major injury of his career, reported as a non-displaced forearm fracture that will keep him off the field of four to six weeks.

This is not the first time Pujols has hit the disabled listed or had a lingering injury.

He did have offseason surgery on his right elbow in October, 2009, with stints on the disabled list in 2006 and 2008 for muscle strains. Pujols has, at times, missed a game because of various minor aliments. He also has suffered with chronic plantar fasciitis in his left heel.

So, while not always in perfect health, he has played through his injuries and been one of the best players in the league during that time.

What does this mean for Pujols?

After his collision with Wilson Betemit, there was quite a bit that took place. You could see Pujols’ wrist, arm and shoulder get bent back. While reacting to the pain, Pujols grabbed his wrist and at one point pointed towards his shoulder. He also was holding his wrist, making it appear there was some instability in the wrist.

After imaging, it was reported Pujols had a non-displaced fracture of the radius, near the wrist. Non-displaced means, basically, it cracked, but the bones are still aligned. Surgery is not needed. I’m still doubtful this is the whole story. Based on the type of injury, receiving enough trauma to break a bone near the wrist and not cause an injury to the remaining complex parts of the wrist seems unlikely.

If this truly is the case, then Pujols should be able to come back fairly quickly with little impact. The wrist takes a good part of the torque generated in a baseball swing. If there is additional damage to the wrist, Pujols’ returned could be delayed, and he could have a drop in his power numbers until the wrist completely heals.

Pujols may come back within the reported time frame, but you’ll want to watch his power numbers. He was hitting like the old Albert in June, but he also had grounded into 17 double plays. An Albert with a drop in his power may hit fewer line drives and more ground balls.

How Pujols comes back is also going to affect his pending free agency. While he has proven to be resilient with injuries, you now have a 31-year-old player who has finally missed significant time to an injury. If you look at Baseball References Similarity Score, number one right now is Albert Belle. This can be a scary comparison* if you want to sign him to a long-term contract.

* It also reminds you how good Belle was at one time. But a lot of those Indians during that period get forgotten, probably because the team never won a World Series. In fact, if you look at Kenny Lofton, he simply doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

Where does this leaves the Cardinals?

The Cardinals are not in that bad a situation. As a right fielder, Lance Berkman makes a heck of a first baseman. Jon Jay can cover for Berkman in right field. While Berkman is not quite as skilled defensively at first base as Pujols, it is not a large drop-off, and Jay is an improvement in right over Berkman.

The Cardinals will not have a huge defensive dropoff and may, in fact, have a slightly better overall defense.

Offensively, you can’t replace Pujols long term, The Cardinals may need to replace only about 180 at-bats (about 35 percent of the season). Jay has produced a WAR* or 0.9 over 179 AB this year, Pujols 2.3 over 318 AB, which means Pujols, this season, was about one win better than Jay.

** WAR numbers taken from Fangraphs

The Cardinals will miss about two wins during this short period of time.

Two wins isn’t bad, but with the Brewers and Reds within three games of the Cardinals, this injury will tighten up the division race.

Losing Pujols is going to put pressure on players to step up, and Tony LaRussa is going to have a juggle the lineup a bit. St. Louis should be able to keep pace in a tight NL Central race. The larger issue is whether the full extend of the injury is being made public. If not, the forecast gets a worse for the Redbirds.

I would watch if the Cardinals look to make a move. If they try to bring in somebody to add some offensive support, it could indicate that more is wrong that just a fractured forearm.

Posted by: Mat Kovach

June 20, 2011

Pop quiz: Mauer’s health

Signing any player to a long-term deal is a roll of the dice.

Signing a catcher to an eight-year, $184 million contract is playing Russian roulette.

Doing so in a market that isn't among the nation's largest is akin to playing the lottery and counting on winning to fund your lavish indulgences.

The mid-market Minnesota Twins inked Joe Mauer to that mega-deal mentioned above in March, 2010, with the contract terms kicking in this season. While Mauer had appeared in over 130 games in five of the last six seasons (and 109 in the sixth), won an MVP award the season before signing his huge contract and has been widely considered the best catcher in the game the last several years, the Twins still took on a significant amount of risk.

Mauer has had knee injuries and other bumps and bruises throughout his career. And the fact that he's a catcher comes with inherently-greater injury risks, as Buster Posey can attest.

The Twins are on the hook for the full $184 million, that's indisputable. But the question is, how much of that investment will the team recoup via Mauer's performance? Will he justify the deal, as so rarely happens with stratospheric free agent contracts? Or will he be yet another data point that these long-term pacts often hamstring teams, saddling them with injured and/or underperforming players in the later years?

Given we're talking about performance through 2018, let's examine the subject in a broad-based manner by asking:

{exp:freeform:form form_name="Mauer_healthy_seasons"prevent_duplicate_on="ip_address" return="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/forms/thanks/"}

How many healthy seasons will Joe Mauer have in his eight-year deal?

Zero: Life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.
1 - 2: Healthy? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
3 - 4: It just so happens that your friend here is only mostly dead.
5 - 6: If you haven't got your health, then you haven't got anything.
Seven: Think it'll work? It would take a miracle.

{/exp:freeform:form}

I'll be back with the results Friday. Until then, have fun storming the castle!

Posted by: Greg Simons


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