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October 27, 2011

How good has Mike Napoli’s World Series been?

With the World Series having shifted to St. Louis for good, we won't be able to hear the catchy "Na-Po-Li!" chant echo throughout Arlington anymore. However, Texas' catcher will still be heard and felt in a big way for the rest of the series and will likely be named series MVP if the Rangers close out their first world championship.

Mike Napoli has been so strong offensively in the eighth spot in the Rangers lineup that he's outperformed every player in this series except, perhaps, Cardinals hitter Albert Pujols. Even Pujols' batting average, RBI and slugging percentage don't match up to Napoli's production over the first five World Series games. In fact, if we look back at the cleanup hitters in the past five Fall Classics, it seems like Napoli has out-produced them all.

	             Slash Line	HR	RBI	R	XBH
Napoli 2011	.308/.389/.846	2	9	2	3
C. Ross  2010	.235/.381/.471	1	2	5	2
Guerrero 2010	.071/.125/.071	0	2	0	0
A-Rod 2009	.250/.423/.550	1	6	5	4
Howard 2009	.174/.240/.391	1	3	3	3
Howard 2008	.286/.375/.762	3	6	3	4
C. Pena 2008	.118/.250/.176	0	2	1	1
M. Ramirez 2007	.250/.333/.313	0	2	3	1
M. Holliday 2007.294/.294/.471	1	3	1	1

Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 26, 2011

Hitters to watch in the final regular-season series

The final regular-season series begin on Monday with both Wild Card spots very much up for grabs. Boston and Atlanta each hold one-game advantages over Tampa Bay and St. Louis, respectively, with three games left to play. For these four clubs, the playoffs started a couple of weeks ago, but this three-game stretch will ultimately decide if the previous 159 games were worth playing in a quest for a championship.

Each of the four series is a division battle, and the key players for the Red Sox, Rays, Braves and Cardinals have had a large number of plate appearances to adequately gauge how their teams' offensive stars will fare in the final three days before the postseason.

Key Hitters 	 PA	  Slash Line    HR     RBI	 R     SB      XBH	   
Ellsbury vs BAL	 73	.424/.466/.712	 4	11	15	1	10	   
Pedroia vs BAL	 72	.338/.403/.600	 3	14	18	2	10	   
Longoria vs NYY	 62	.241/.339/.407	 2	 6	 6	0	 5	   
Zobrist vs NYY	 51	.293/.412/.512	 2	 7	 6	2	 4	   
McCann vs PHI	 58	.196/.293/.294	 1	 3	 3	0	 3	   
Uggla vs PHI	 62	.161/.242/.375	 3	 6	 8	0	 6	   
Pujols vs HOU	 50	.261/.320/.478	 2	 7	 8	1	 6	   
Berkman vs HOU	 31	.429/.484/1.036	 5	12	 6	0	 7	 

As you can see, the two Red Sox MVP candidates have torn up Baltimore pitching, and Boston may survive after all. Even if they falter, Tampa Bay's star players will come into their series against Yankee backups having struggled against New York all season.

Philadelphia will try to do its best to hold the pitching-strong Braves out of the postseason, and stars Brian McCann and Dan Uggla have to break out of their respective funks against the NL East champs. The Cardinals and their stars have done extremely well offensively against the feeble Houston pitching staff this season, especially former Astro Lance Berkman.

If the performances of these eight hitting stars are any indication of this week's outcomes, the Red Sox and Redbirds could very well be moving on for some October baseball, leaving the Rays out and the Braves crushed by their stretch run downfall.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

September 20, 2011

Comparing Curtis Granderson

After his 41st home run on Monday afternoon in a 6-4 win over Minnesota, Yankees slugger Curtis Granderson has seemingly furthered his case for the American League MVP award. However, sabermetricians and the stats of past prolific Yankees home run hitters over the 21st century would show that Granderson is not worthy of the award.

Granderson, with his 7.0 WAR, doesn't even have the best WAR on his own team—CC Sabathia bests him with a 7.1—and Granderson is well behind Jacoby Ellsbury's 8.5 and Jose Bautista's 8.2. Even Dustin Pedroia edges Granderson with his 7.3, and 24-game winner Justin Verlander matches his former Detroit teammate with his 7.0 WAR.

AL MVP candidates	        PA        Slash Line    HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	   
Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR	612	.304/.448/.623	42	100	102	8.2	 8	   
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS	681	.319/.376/.539	27	 96	111	8.5	37	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS	        684	.297/.380/.463	20	 83	 96	7.3     26	 

Granderson's team has fared better than the other candidates', which still may be a factor in the minds of some of the voters, but many of his numbers don't stack up compared with other MVP candidates and previous Yankees home run hitters.

	                PA        Slash Line    HR      RBI      R      WAR     SB	 Awards
C. Granderson, 2011	659	.268/.371/.568	41	115	133	7.0	24	??
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	MVP (1), SS
Alex Rodriguez, 2005	715	.321/.421/.610	48	130	124	9.1	21	MVP (1), SS
Jason Giambi, 2003	690	.250/.412/.527	41	107	 97	5.0	 2	MVP (13)
Jason Giambi, 2002	689	.314/.435/.598	41	122	120	7.0	 2	MVP (5), SS

When Rodriguez won the MVP in 2007 and 2005, his numbers were better than Granderson's across the board except Granderson's runs, which lead the AL. That total is the best stat he has going for him besides the home runs. Giambi did not play the field in 43 percent of his games in 2002 and 2003, which impacted his WAR numbers and MVP chances.

The average WAR of the last five AL MVPs is 7.4, and that number is weighed down by Justin Morneau's 4.0 WAR in 2006 (Derek Jeter and David Ortiz each had a 6.3 and finished second and third, respectively). Pedroia's 6.8 in 2008 was oddly the best WAR among the top five vote-getters. But I digress...

 
	                  PA	  Slash Line 	HR	RBI	 R	WAR	SB	   
Josh Hamilton, 2010	  571	.359/.411/.633	32	100	 95	8.7	 8	   
Joe Mauer, 2009	          606	.365/.444/.587	28	 96	 94	7.9	 4	   
Dustin Pedroia, 2008	  726	.326/.376/.493	17	 83	118	6.8	20	   
Alex Rodriguez, 2007	  708	.314/.422/.645	54	156	143	9.8	24	   
Justin Morneau, 2006	  661	.321/.375/.559	34	130	 97	4.0	 3	 

You could make a decent case that Granderson should win the MVP this season (and some people certainly could speculate that performance-enhancing drugs has to do with past inflated WAR numbers), but he would certainly be a below-average MVP candidate from a historical and, in my view, a current perspective.
Posted by: Shlomo Sprung

June 20, 2011

Pop quiz: Mauer’s health

Signing any player to a long-term deal is a roll of the dice.

Signing a catcher to an eight-year, $184 million contract is playing Russian roulette.

Doing so in a market that isn't among the nation's largest is akin to playing the lottery and counting on winning to fund your lavish indulgences.

The mid-market Minnesota Twins inked Joe Mauer to that mega-deal mentioned above in March, 2010, with the contract terms kicking in this season. While Mauer had appeared in over 130 games in five of the last six seasons (and 109 in the sixth), won an MVP award the season before signing his huge contract and has been widely considered the best catcher in the game the last several years, the Twins still took on a significant amount of risk.

Mauer has had knee injuries and other bumps and bruises throughout his career. And the fact that he's a catcher comes with inherently-greater injury risks, as Buster Posey can attest.

The Twins are on the hook for the full $184 million, that's indisputable. But the question is, how much of that investment will the team recoup via Mauer's performance? Will he justify the deal, as so rarely happens with stratospheric free agent contracts? Or will he be yet another data point that these long-term pacts often hamstring teams, saddling them with injured and/or underperforming players in the later years?

Given we're talking about performance through 2018, let's examine the subject in a broad-based manner by asking:

{exp:freeform:form form_name="Mauer_healthy_seasons"prevent_duplicate_on="ip_address" return="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/forms/thanks/"}

How many healthy seasons will Joe Mauer have in his eight-year deal?

Zero: Life is pain. Anyone who says differently is selling something.
1 - 2: Healthy? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
3 - 4: It just so happens that your friend here is only mostly dead.
5 - 6: If you haven't got your health, then you haven't got anything.
Seven: Think it'll work? It would take a miracle.

{/exp:freeform:form}

I'll be back with the results Friday. Until then, have fun storming the castle!

Posted by: Greg Simons

November 16, 2010

Predicting the Cy Young and MVP winners

In The Hardball Times Annual 2009, I built a model for predicting the winners of the MVP and Cy Young Awards. My model(s) have historically done pretty well (note: in-sample testing), getting the winner right around two-thirds of the time (a little worse for the MVP and a little better for the Cy Young). Last year, the model was two-for-four, correctly guessing the MVPs but whiffing on both Cy Youngs. I figured I would take a look at what the model is thinking this year before the awards actually get handed out.

(Note that the model hands out MVP and Cy Young points on a 1,000 point scale, with 1,000 points indicating a player who should win unanimously. Also, please remember that it is exponential, so small differences can get magnified at the high-end, as they tend to be in awards voting.)

AL MVP
Josh Hamilton | .359 BA | 32 HR | 100 RBI | 434 MVP
Robinson Cano | .319 BA | 29 HR | 109 RBI | 237 MVP
Miguel Cabrera | .328 BA | 38 HR | 126 RBI | 201 MVP

Hamilton looks like the clear favorite in the American League. Cabrera would have been slightly favored had the Tigers made the playoffs, but without that he has little chance.

NL MVP
Joey Votto | .324 BA | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 322 MVP
Roy Halladay | 21-10 W/L | 2.44 ERA | 250.2 IP | 299 MVP
Albert Pujols | .312 BA | 42 HR | 118 RBI | 204 MVP

If the Cardinals had made the playoffs, Pujols would be the hands-down favorite for a third-straight MVP. Instead, it looks like Votto will take the prize this season, though the model also really likes Halladay. I don't think the voters will see it as quite such a close race.

AL Cy Young
CC Sabathia | 21-7 W/L | 3.18 ERA | 237.2 IP | 357 Cy Young
David Price | 19-6 W/L | 2.72 ERA | 208.2 IP | 292 Cy Young
Jon Lester | 19-9 W/L | 3.25 ERA | 208.0 IP | 127 Cy Young

If Felix Hernandez wins the Cy Young Award this season that will be a strong sign that the Cy Young model needs to be re-calibrated for a new, more intelligent era of voting. Last season, it whiffed on both Cy Youngs, thinking voters wouldn't pick a 15 and 16-game winner when there were candidates with 19 wins and good numbers to choose from as well. In the past, this race would definitely have gone for Sabathia, but I'm not so sure that will happen this time around.

NL Cy Young
Roy Halladay | 21-10 W/L | 2.44 ERA | 250.2 IP | 982 Cy Young
Adam Wainwright | 20-11 W/L | 2.42 ERA | 230.1 IP | 384 Cy Young
Ubaldo Jimenez | 19-8 W/L | 2.88 ERA | 221.2 IP | 287 Cy Young

Halladay is the only player to completely run away with one of the awards, as far as the model sees it. From start to finish, he had a truly fantastic season in 2010.
Posted by: David Gassko


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