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January 09, 2012

Me vs. reality: 2012 edition

This year, as is my annual tradition, I predicted how the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote will go. I don't just say in/out, but give actual predicted percentages. Well, the vote is out, so how did I do? Let's see.

Below is a chart comparing the actual BBWAA vote totals versus my predictions for the 2012 elections - plus the difference between the two (saying how high/low my predictions were compared to reality).

Name	     BBWAA	Me	Diff.
Barry Larkin	86	82	  -4
Jack Morris	68	65	  -3
Jeff Bagwell	56	54	  -2
Lee Smith	51	52	   1
Tim Raines	49	52	   3
Edgar Martinez	37	39	   2
Alan Trammell	37	32	  -5
Larry Walker	23	27	   4
Mark McGwire	20	24	   4
Fred McGriff	24	24	   0
Dale Murphy	15	19	   4
Don Mattingly	18	18	   0
Rafael Palmeiro	13	15	   2
Bernie Williams	10	12	   2

14 guys predicted, and I was within five percentage points with all of them. I was off by an average of 2.6 percentage points. Yeah, I like that.

In all:

Guessed perfectly twice (Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff).

Off by one percentage point once (Lee Smith).

Off by two percentage points four times (Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Rafael Palmeiro, Bernie Williams)

Off by three percentage points twice (Jack Morris, Tim Raines)

Off by four percentage points four times (Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy)

Off by five percentage points once (Alan Trammell).

That's another year I can claim to know what I'm talking about.
Posted by: Chris Jaffe

October 31, 2011

Postseason predictions wrap-up

Twenty Hardball Times staffers made their predictions of how the 2011 postseason would play itself out. Some proved prescient, a few less so. Let's take a look at the rankings to see whose guesses came closest to, and shortest of, perfection.

Scoring was based on a 5-3-1 system similar to regular-season awards: If someone picked a Division Series correctly, that person received one point, choosing an LCS winner garnered three points, while being a fortune teller and predicting the World Series winner earned five points. (Nobody got those five points.)

Here are everyone's picks and the results, ranked by total points.
Click for more...

Posted by: Greg Simons

October 18, 2011

LCS prediction results

With the World Series competitors set—and good luck to the Rangers and Cardinals—it's time to review how the Hardball Times' staff did in the League Championship Series and compare their picks to those of our readers' contest entries.

The champion picker among our readers—and the winner of a copy of The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012—is Eugene Douglas. He eliminated any need for a World Series-winner tiebreaker by being the only entrant to have a team actually in the World Series.

Eugene tied for the lead going into the League Championship Series by picking three Division Series winners—Detroit, Texas and Milwaukee. (Note Detroit: He's a Yankees fan.) So the Rangers won it for him, which is only proper because he works as a software programmer in Washington, D.C., where the Rangers once played....

The Annual, currently in production, will be available later this fall. We'll be sure to let you know on this site exactly when you can order yours.

There were a couple of mistakes in our previous article about Hardball Times staff picks, with "Prescient" Ben Pritchett already given credit for his pick of the Tigers winning the LDS, which put him in a three-way tie at that time. Additionally, Mat Kovach had correctly chosen the Cardinals over Philly, so he vaulted into a tie with Ben and Greg Simons with three LDS picked accurately.

In the LCS round, only Ben, Greg and Sam Hendrickson chose one of the World Series entrants correctly; Ben and Sam picked Texas, while Greg selected St. Louis.

Using a 1-3-5 scoring system, right now, Ben and Greg are tied with six points each. The only THT staffer who has a shot at getting another pick right is Sam, who chose Texas to win the Fall Classic. Check back after the World Series for the full results rundown.
Posted by: THT Staff

October 08, 2011

Our predictions (and yours)

Now that the Division Series are over—with each of the two NL series ending in dramatic fashion Friday—let's review how the Hardball Times' staff did and compare their picks to those of our readers contest entries.

Among our staff, Ben Pritchett—who was our winner for best predictions of which teams would make the playoffs—picked three of the Divsion Series winners correctly, as did Greg Simons. Nine people were right on two outcomes, eight picked only one correctly...and then there's Steve Treder. Poor Steve whiffed on all four series, but he can take comfort in the fact that his favorite team won the World Series last year.

Three of us have both our World Series entrants alive, 12 have one of them, and five are shut out from here on out. And exactly half of the 20 voters have their predicted World Series champion still in contention.

How does this stack up against our readers' picks? Well, three of you picked three Division Series out of four: Matthew Warden (Texas, Milwaukee and St. Louis), Trip Von Minden (Detroit, Texas, Milwaukee) and Eugene Douglas (Detroit, Texas, Milwaukee). One of them will win a 2012 Hardball Times Annual. Next tiebreaker: The League Championship Series.


Posted by: THT Staff

October 03, 2011

THT staff playoff predictions summary

In the interest of full disclose, and because I finally got around to formatting the picks, below are the staff's playoff predictions.

My apologies for the tardiness, but at least they're up before any Division Series is decided.

You'll notice certain teams received plenty of endorsements in their attempts to attain a title, while other squads garnered little support (cough, cough, St. Louis).

A review of everyone's success and/or failure rate will be presented once a champion is crowned. Until then, let's continue to enjoy us some postseason baseball.
Click for more...

Posted by: Greg Simons


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